FinalCentennial Bank Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENN | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
| ARST | 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 17 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUnder 53 total 51¢
Why ProphetX CFB Lines likes it: Current three-game pace/usage averages 70.0 Kennesaw State plays and 58.3 Arkansas State plays; points-per-drive are 1.95 and 2.46, tempering expected chances.
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% this season · 286 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 9-8 on this game · +0% return
- Kennesaw State Owls to win−100%Lost
Taken at +195 on FanDuel
3 modelsQuantitative +EV Analyst, Picks With Pink Grading System +1Why 3 models like it
Quantitative +EV Analyst- +195 implies 33.9%; model-based expected return is approximately +20.9%.
- Last-10 net EPA/play favors Kennesaw State by 0.04: -0.01 versus Arkansas State's -0.06.
- The predictor still makes Arkansas State a 3.1-point home favorite; the edge depends on probability-price disagreement.
Picks With Pink Grading System- That is a 7.1 percentage-point projection edge and approximately 20.9% model-estimated return per unit risked.
- Kennesaw State's last-10 straight-up record is 6-4, matching the 60% consistency preference.
- Kennesaw State is 1-2 straight up in 2026; its last-five straight-up record is only 2-3.
Long Way Home- The same model projects only a 3.11-point Arkansas State home edge, versus the market's roughly 5.5, 6.5-point spread.
- After three games, Kennesaw State's defensive EPA allowed is 0.02/play versus Arkansas State's 0.24/play, supporting a narrower margin.
- Kennesaw State trails in offensive EPA/play (0.06 versus 0.09) and points per drive (1.95 versus 2.46).
- Kennesaw State Owls spread +6.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, ProphetX PairsWhy 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- Kennesaw State covered 6 of its last 10 against the spread (60%).
- Kennesaw State covered 3 of its last 5 ATS (60%) and 2 of 3 in 2026 (66.7%).
- Kennesaw State is only 1-2 straight up this season and has lost its last two games.
ProphetX Pairs- cfb_predictor projects Arkansas State by 3.11 points, 3.39 points inside the ProphetX -6.5 number.
- only defensive EPA allowed is slightly better for Kennesaw State: 0.31 versus Arkansas State's 0.32.
- Only two FBS games qualify for each team after excluding West Georgia; this is a Partial/ Tier 2 sample.
- Under 53 total+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current three-game pace/usage averages 70.0 Kennesaw State plays and 58.3 Arkansas State plays; points-per-drive are 1.95 and 2.46, tempering expected chances.
- Only three current-season advanced rows per team and both programs are Group-of-Five, so coverage is partial and variance is meaningful.
- Game total points over 52−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 current sample, 3 games: Kennesaw State posted +0.05 offensive EPA/play and Arkansas State +0.09; success rates were 49.2% and 50.3%.
- Explosive-play rates are 10.7% and 12.5%; Kennesaw State's 17.74-second pace and 14.5% PROE support extra possessions.
- Defensive EPA allowed is positive for both teams: +0.02 for Kennesaw State and +0.24 for Arkansas State, a favorable scoring mismatch.
- Most likely loss: Kennesaw State cannot sustain drives and Arkansas State's offense stalls after its 7-point showing against TCU.
- Arkansas State Red Wolves 1st-half winner−100%Lost
Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 3-game EPA matchup: Arkansas State offense minus Kennesaw State defense projects +0.07/play versus Kennesaw State minus Arkansas State at -0.19/play.
- Arkansas State averaged 50.3% offensive success and 2.46 points/drive; Kennesaw State averaged 49.2% and 1.95.
- Current game-day coverage/depth-chart checks point to Trey Owens and Rickie Collins; each led his team's latest passing workload.
- Only three 2026 games per team; opponent quality and sample size are thin.
- Kennesaw State +7 spread+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Show all 14 picks
- Kennesaw State spread +7+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are 3 versus 3, so levels do not corroborate; backing Kennesaw State +7, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- No independent sharp reference was used; the read is entirely ProphetX venue self-reference.
- Arkansas State Red Wolves to win+43%Won
Taken at 70¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Arkansas State’s 2026 PFF team grade is 88.4 versus Kennesaw State’s 75.4; offense grades are 77.2 versus 68.5.
- Arkansas State’s 2026 offensive EPA/play is +0.09 versus Kennesaw State’s +0.05, with home field added.
- ProphetX moneyline implies 69.7%; the Arkansas State -1 rung implies 70.2%, keeping the ladder directionally coherent.
- Both teams are 1-2, so the efficiency sample is only three regular-season games.
- Arkansas State Red Wolves spread −5.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Arkansas State leads 2026 PFF overall grading 88.4-75.4, with a 71.0-47.3 run-block advantage.
- Season EPA favors Arkansas State offense 0.09-0.05; the Red Wolves also hold the stronger overall film card.
- The -5.5 rung captures six- and seven-point margins before key 7; CFB margins 4-7 occur 16.7%, exact 7 7.9%.
- Most likely loss: Arkansas State's poor recent defense allowed 0.24 EPA/play, letting Collins keep Kennesaw State within five.
- Game total points under 53+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 sample pace is 33.42 seconds/play for Arkansas State versus 17.74 for Kennesaw State; the matchup is not two fast offenses.
- Arkansas State has 0.12 explosive rate and .5033 success rate; Kennesaw State has .1068 and .4925 across three games each.
- Kennesaw State's defensive EPA allowed is .0202 in the current sample, while Arkansas State's offense is coming off 7 points against TCU.
- Arkansas State's defensive EPA allowed is .2410, creating a clear path for Kennesaw State to exceed its team expectation.
- Arkansas State Red Wolves first-half spread NO over 3.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Empirical signed home-margin SD was about 22.0 points across 1,853 FBS games in 2024-25; sqrt-half scaling gives approximately 15.6 points, not 11.0.
- college margin mass clusters at 3 (170 games) and 7 (139); 3.5 sits immediately beyond a real 3-point mass.
- Only three current-season games per team; the +0.5 full-game projection is highly sample-sensitive.
- Kennesaw State Owls spread +5.5+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- three-game EPA matchup math favors Kennesaw State by a +0.12 EPA/play differential.
- Arkansas State offense: +0.09 EPA/play versus Kennesaw State's +0.02 allowed; both current samples contain three games.
- Rickie Collins and Trey Owens are confirmed starters by latest box data and a live pregame listing.
- Arkansas State's 2026 PFF overall grade is 88.4 versus Kennesaw State's 75.4.
- 1H total over 27.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 28.9 first-half points from 10.6 projected drives, not a flat 50% of the 52.5 full-game total.
- Season-to-date (3 games): Arkansas State 33.42 sec/play, 2.46 points/drive; Kennesaw State 17.74 sec/play, 1.96 points/drive.
- Drive math: blended 25.58 sec/play gives 70.4 clean-half plays; 15% stoppage haircut leaves 59.8 plays; observed 5.62 plays/drive gives 10.6 drives.
- LEAN, not RECOMMENDED: yes_bid 0.41 to yes_ask 0.47 is the maximum permitted 6¢ spread, with only 17 contracts traded.
- Game total over 52.5 (no push; 52 or fewer loses)−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Questions
Who won Kennesaw State vs. Arkansas State?
Arkansas State won 17-14 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.