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FinalAmFirst Stadium
Middle Tennessee2-1
13–23Final
Jacksonville State2-2
Score by period
Team1234T
MTSU076013
JXST6410323

Top model pick, graded

Won

Jacksonville State Gamecocks to win 73¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-9 on this game · −27% return

  1. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders to winLong shot5 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 28¢ on ProphetX

    5 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Resting Money +3
    Why 5 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
      • Only three current MTSU advanced rows and four Jacksonville State rows; Group-of-Five coverage is partial.
      Resting Money
      • Directional check: backing Middle Tennessee, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • Book-level corroboration is absent (3, 3), so this is weaker than a three-measure alignment despite clearing the two-measure minimum.
      Quantitative +EV Analyst
      • Projected Jacksonville State margin is 6.65 points, below the current 7-point spread range.
      • FanDuel offers +235, better than DraftKings +230 on the same moneyline.
      • Last-10 average margin favors Jacksonville State by 2.8 points: +2.7 versus Middle Tennessee -0.1.
      Picks With Pink Grading System
      • Middle Tennessee is 4-1 straight up across its last five completed games.
      • MTSU’s recent offense produced +0.05 EPA/play and a 46.6% success rate.
      • L10 straight-up hit rate is 4-10 (40%), below the preferred 60% consistency threshold.
    • Jacksonville State Gamecocks to winFavorite
      +37%Won

      Taken at 73¢ on Polymarket

      CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
    • Jacksonville State Gamecocks spread −7
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Jacksonville State's current-season offense averages +0.25 EPA/play against Middle Tennessee's +0.09 defensive EPA/play allowed (4 vs 3 games).
      • Middle Tennessee's offense averages +0.13 EPA/play against Jacksonville State's +0.14 allowed; the matchup efficiency gap favors Jacksonville State.
      • Current success rate is Jacksonville State .505 versus Middle Tennessee .480; PFF grades also favor Jacksonville State coverage 89.9 to Middle Tennessee 74.8.
      • Most likely loss: Jacksonville State wins but by only 1-6 points, or Middle Tennessee's late-game passing keeps it inside the number.
    • 1H total YES over 13.5Favorite
      +10%Won

      Taken at 91¢ on Kalshi

      Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Season-to-date drives: Jacksonville State 11.0/game; Middle Tennessee 10.0/game. Points per drive: 2.53 and 2.72.
      • Starting-QB gate cleared: Creel and Gagliano lead their teams in attempts across the last three games; a live matchup report names both starters.
      • Jacksonville State pace data is internally corrupted: season rows include 25.09, 2.78, 3.23, and 4.24 seconds/play; drive counts replace that input.
    • Game total over 51
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Over 51 pushes at exactly 51; adjacent Over 51.5 loses at 51.
      • ProphetX charges 51.46c for Over 51 versus 50.00c for Over 51.5: only a 1.46c push-option premium.
      • Pinnacle lists Over 51 at -116; ProphetX is -106, independently confirming the whole-number rung is live.
      • The edge is concentrated at exactly 51; totals of 52-plus win both contracts, while 50-or-under loses both.
    • Jacksonville State −7 spread
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Jacksonville State -7 pushes at exactly a 7-point win; -7.5 loses there.
      • -7 is 52.15¢ (-109) versus -7.5 at 48.54¢ (+106), only a 3.61¢ gap.
      • Historical margin mass is unconditional, not a Jacksonville State-specific projection.
    Show all 12 picks
    1. Middle Tennessee +10.5
      +67%Won

      Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Book levels corroborate: Middle Tennessee 3 versus Jacksonville State 2; backing Middle Tennessee +10.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. Fresh quote is -150 (60.00¢).
      • Venue self-reference is the entire primary read; no independent sharp reference or projection edge supports it.
    2. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders spread +6.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

      Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • MTSU's 2026 defense has allowed 0.09 EPA/play versus Jacksonville State's 0.14, supporting a competitive margin despite the home favorite.
      • QB gate cleared: Roman Gagliano and Caden Creel were confirmed through the latest passing rows and a same-day matchup report.
      • A Jacksonville State win by exactly 7 is the key-number failure path for +6.5; the empirical margin mass also makes that outcome unusually relevant.
    3. Game total points under 48.5
      +138%Won

      Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

      Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • ProphetX offers $2,601 at +136, comfortably above the $300 gate; the rung is 2.5 points below its 51 main number.
      • Both confirmed starting quarterbacks are active: Roman Gagliano and Caden Creel; neither supplies a timing-based under edge.
    4. Game total points over 53.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

      Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2026 scoring through kickoff: Middle Tennessee has 91 points in 3 games (30.3/game); Jacksonville State has 114 in 4 (28.5/game).
      • Current three-game efficiency sample: Middle Tennessee .480 success and .130 explosive rate; Jacksonville State .530 success and .146 explosive rate.
      • Current defensive EPA allowed averages are positive for both teams: +.088 Middle Tennessee and +.120 Jacksonville State, not a shutdown profile.
      • Most likely loss: red-zone stalls leave the game in the 48-53 range, one point short of 54.
    5. Jacksonville State Gamecocks first-half spread NO over 13.5Favorite
      +25%Won

      Taken at 80¢ on Kalshi

      Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • first-half mean margin is +3.5 Jacksonville State points: Pinnacle’s -7.0 full-game spread scaled to half, with team PPD/efficiency not supporting a larger mean.
      • 15.84-point full-game margin SD from 2,352 completed CFB games (2024, 26) scales to 11.20 points, not 7.92; model gives NO about 83% at the 13.5 rung.
      • Pinnacle held Jacksonville State -7.0; the independent full-game reference agrees with a modest first-half mean, not a 13.5-point lead.
      • Only 22 contracts traded; the 3¢ YES spread is acceptable for a LEAN but price discovery is thin.
    6. Game total points over 53
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

      Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2026 current sample is 3 MTSU games and 4 Jacksonville State games; both offenses show positive EPA against defenses allowing positive EPA.
      • MTSU offense averages +0.13 EPA/play and Jacksonville State allows +0.14; Jacksonville State offense averages +0.25 and MTSU allows +0.09.
      • Success rates are .482 and .509, explosive rates .130 and .127, and points per drive 2.72 and 2.53; both offenses have multiple scoring paths.
      • The current efficiency sample is only 3-4 games, and Jacksonville State's pace data is unusually volatile; projection uncertainty is wide.

    Questions

    Who won Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State?

    Jacksonville State won 23-13 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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