FinalDana J. Dykhouse Stadium
Eastern Illinois1-3
7–42Final
South Dakota State3-1
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAST | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| SOUT | 7 | 7 | 21 | 7 | 42 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits spread −34.5 52¢
Why Drift likes it: Model 53.5%: SDSU success rate .4947 vs EIU .3125 and explosive rate .0947 vs .0417.
DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-1 on this game · +43% return
- South Dakota State Jackrabbits spread −34.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsDrift, Key Number CFBWhy 2 models like it
Drift- Model 53.5%: SDSU success rate .4947 vs EIU .3125 and explosive rate .0947 vs .0417.
- SDSU defensive EPA allowed .3339 vs EIU .4044; SDSU also plays 20.17 seconds/play vs EIU 29.31.
- Only one 2026 game per team; the efficiency sample is early-season and noisy.
Key Number CFB- ProphetX offers South Dakota State -34.5 at -107; Pinnacle also posts -34.5, corroborating the margin mean.
- Rung density favors -34.5 over -35.5: the CFB histogram shows 211 games at margin 35 versus 56 at margin 36.
- Josh Holst is a confirmed first-time starter after Chase Mason's injury; the quarterback transition could reduce SDSU's scoring margin.
- Game total under 54+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- under 54 wins at 53 or fewer, pushes at exactly 54, and loses at 55+.
- The residual ladder gap is small: roughly 0.52 percentage points of historical push mass remains uncompensated before any distribution differences.
- Eastern Illinois Panthers spread +34.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- game median margins put SDSU at +25 and EIU at -7; the 34.5 line is 2.5 points above that gap.
- SDSU's 2026 FCS results were +43 vs New Haven and +7 vs Youngstown State; the latest result was not a runaway.
- EIU's FCS margins were +14, -7, and -36, a volatile profile where 34.5 provides meaningful blowout protection.
- Most likely loss: SDSU converts its depth and field-position edge into a 35-plus-point win.
Questions
Who won Eastern Illinois vs. South Dakota State?
South Dakota State won 42-7 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.