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FinalNippert Stadium
Kansas State3-0
26–31Final
Cincinnati3-0
Score by period
Team1234T
KSU3140926
CIN01014731

Top model pick, graded

Won

Cincinnati Bearcats spread +6 51¢

Why ProphetX CFB Lines likes it: Blended matchup distribution makes K-State's mean margin about +3.2; Cincinnati +6 wins 55.0%, with roughly 2.0% push mass.

ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% this season · 286 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-11 on this game · +25% return

  1. Cincinnati Bearcats to win4 models agree
    +188%Won

    Taken at +188 on FanDuel

    4 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, ProphetX Pairs +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B); qualifies with a strong projection edge.
    • Model projects Kansas State by only 2.9 points, while the market prices the Wildcats around -6; Cincinnati is at home.
    • Cincinnati's last-10 moneyline record is 5-5, below the preferred 60% consistency gate.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • The same model projects only Kansas State -2.87 points, much closer than the exchange's -205 Kansas State moneyline.
    • Cincinnati has produced 0.37 offensive EPA/play and a 57.3% success rate through three 2026 games; home field is part of the matchup context.
    • Kansas State's defense has been better: -0.22 defensive EPA/play versus Cincinnati's -0.10.
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • Pinnacle also priced Cincinnati at +193, so the FanDuel price is not an isolated stale quote.
    • Cincinnati is 3-0 with 131 points scored through three games and has home field at Nippert Stadium.
    • Kansas State's last-10 offense/defense EPA differential is materially better than Cincinnati's, so the situational efficiency read does not align.
    Long Way Home
    • NO REFERENCE, my matchup read puts Cincinnati in the high-30% range versus 33.3% implied.
    • Cincinnati owns 0.37 offensive EPA/play and a 57.3% success rate through three games.
    • Most likely loss: Kansas State's stronger defense (-0.22 EPA allowed versus Cincinnati's -0.10) controls the game.
  2. Cincinnati Bearcats spread +62 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Kickoff Ledger
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Blended matchup distribution makes K-State's mean margin about +3.2; Cincinnati +6 wins 55.0%, with roughly 2.0% push mass.
    • At 55.0% wins, 2.0% pushes and 43.0% losses, expected value is approximately +10.4% at -103.
    • K-State's 2026 defense has allowed -0.22 EPA/play versus Cincinnati's -0.10, creating a credible two-score separation path.
    Kickoff Ledger
    • CFB predictor at 6:04 AM PT makes Kansas State only a 2.9-point favorite; +6 supplies 3.1 points of fair-line margin.
    • Through three games, K-State owns the stronger defense (-0.22 EPA/play), but Cincinnati's offense is also strong (+0.37 EPA/play).
    • Cincinnati's home field and 18.8-second pace could create an early lead against K-State's slower 31.0-second pace.
  3. Kansas State Wildcats spread −6.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsKey Number CFB, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Key Number CFB
    • Kansas State's 2026 regular-season profile is +0.37 offensive EPA/play and -0.22 defensive EPA allowed/play through three games.
    • Kansas State must win by at least 7; a six-point win loses despite the moneyline support.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Kansas State's two FBS games: +0.29 offensive EPA/play and -0.17 defensive EPA/play allowed; Cincinnati: +0.25 and -0.07.
    • Quarter-Kelly tool output is 0.6% of bankroll; desk cap reduces the published stake to 0.5%.
    • Partial tier: each team has only two usable FBS games; the third early-season game versus an FCS opponent is excluded.
  4. Kansas State Wildcats 1st-half winner
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • full-game Pinnacle devig is 66.9% K-State, with the -6 direction aligned by the full-game board.
    • Derived first-half margin estimate is about +3.7 points, producing roughly 62.5% K-State first-half-win probability after a tie allowance.
    • Season-to-date matchup inputs favor K-State: +0.37 offensive EPA/play versus Cincinnati's -0.10 defensive EPA/play allowed; K-State defense is -0.22.
    • High hit probability is not automatically profitable: if the derived 62.5% estimate is wrong and the true rate is near the 58.2% market baseline, the safety feeling is already priced in.
  5. Isaiah Johnson receiving yards under 34.5
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates 72% under versus 53.3% implied at -114: 18.7-point value margin.
    • Johnson stayed under 34.5 receiving yards in 8 of his last 10 appearances.
    • Kansas State ranks 242nd of 253 in defensive EPA allowed, a top-tier under matchup.
    • One explosive reception can defeat a low receiving-yard line even against an efficient defense.
  6. Avery Johnson passing yards under 214.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates 64% under versus 53.3% implied at -114: 10.7-point value margin.
    • Johnson stayed under 214.5 in 7 of his last 10 appearances across 2025-26.
    • Cincinnati ranks 215th of 253 in defensive EPA allowed, a strong under matchup.
    • The 10-game sample spans seasons and includes changing opponents, roles, and offensive contexts.
Show all 19 picks
  1. Game total points over 55
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • current 2026 three-game sample: Kansas State offense +0.37 EPA/play and Cincinnati +0.37.
    • Both offenses clear 0.54 success rate and carry explosive rates of 0.13 and 0.13, respectively.
    • Positive PROE averages are approximately +0.05 for Kansas State and +0.07 for Cincinnati; recent usable pace is 30.77 versus 26.55, 27.12 seconds/play.
    • Kansas State's current defense has allowed -0.22 EPA/play; that efficiency can suppress Cincinnati's scoring.
  2. Kansas State Wildcats spread −6
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX's own K-State moneyline is -205 while its -6 spread is near-even at +102.
    • Projection corroboration: K-State's defense allowed -0.22 EPA/play through three 2026 games versus Cincinnati's -0.10.
    • PFF 2026 team card favors K-State's defense 85.3 to 77.9 overall and 83.0 to 62.9 in pass rush.
    • Most likely loss: Cincinnati's offense, which owns a .573 current-season success rate, keeps the game within six at home.
  3. 1H total over 27.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected first-half scoring is roughly 36-40 points from recent points-per-drive and opening-script pace.
    • Kansas State averaged 3.73 points per drive across its three 2026 games.
    • Cincinnati averaged 4.36 points per drive across its two clean recent games, with 26.6-27.1 seconds per play.
    • Only three Kansas State and two usable Cincinnati games make the efficiency sample thin.
  4. Game total under 55
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 55 pushes/refunds at exactly 55; adjacent under 54.5 loses on 55.
    • ProphetX under 55 is 50.00¢ versus under 54.5 at 47.62¢ (+100 versus +110).
    • The 10-American-cent adjacent-rung adjustment may already compensate for much of the exact-55 mass.
  5. Kansas State −8
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels corroborate: Kansas State has 3 levels versus Cincinnati's 2; two-of-three core measures agree, with a few-hundred-dollar thin-side quote.
    • Directional check: backing Kansas State -8, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Kansas State can fail to cover despite patient demand; a favorite laying eight has meaningful margin variance.
  6. Kansas State Wildcats to winFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 67¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels: Kansas State 3 versus Cincinnati 3; the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it pattern clears 2 of 3 measures, with substantial raw size.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides have 3 levels.
  7. Game total points over 56
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle/DraftKings main totals are 55/55.5; over 56 is only one point above the market center and does not cross a key total.
    • 2026 current form: Kansas State +0.37 and Cincinnati +0.37 offensive EPA/play, with positive PROE of 4.9% and 7.3%.
    • Official previews identify Avery Johnson and JC French IV as the starting quarterbacks; latest box data shows 27 and 43 pass attempts, respectively.
    • Kansas State and Cincinnati rank well defensively in current EPA allowed per play (-0.22 and -0.10), while PFF defense grades are 85.3 and 77.9.
  8. Kansas State Wildcats first-half spread over 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game KSU -6 at -105; scaled first-half mean is approximately +3.0 KSU points.
    • 2024-25 FBS sample: 1,853 final games, empirical full-game margin SD 14.77; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD 10.44, not 7.38.
    • the 7.5 rung is priced at 33¢ while the adjacent 9.5 YES rung is 31¢; the ladder is unusually compressed relative to the model's tail decay.
    • College margin mass is concentrated at 3, 7, 10 and 14 in the sample; 7.5 sits just beyond the observed 7-point mass, where a normal tail can misfit.
  9. Kansas State Wildcats over 30.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −130 on FanDuel

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +0.35 opponent-adjusted EPA/play: KSU offense .2883 minus Cincinnati defensive allowance -.0659, across two 2026 FBS games each.
    • Only two current-season FBS games support each efficiency side; PARTIAL coverage makes the estimate volatile.
  10. Game total over 55.5 points
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • My blended fair total is 58.5, 59.0, about three points above the DraftKings 55.5.
    • K-State and Cincinnati average 55.3 and 62.3 total points per game through three contests, respectively.
    • Both offenses are above +0.36 EPA/play, with 3.73 and 3.91 points per drive; explosive rates are 13.3% and 12.5%.
    • K-State plays slowly at 31.0 seconds per play and owns a strong -0.22 defensive EPA/play.
  11. 1H total over 19.5
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season-to-date: Cincinnati/Kansas State average 68.7/70.0 plays and 18.8/31.0 seconds per play; blended pace plus a 10% stoppage cut gives 65.1 half plays and 10.52 drives.
    • Live at 0:55 Q1: Kansas State leads 3-0; three drives are complete, with a fourth underway. The model projects roughly 30.2 first-half points after the live starting state.
    • Full-game Kalshi over probability fell to 0.51 with the live line at 43.5, a bearish market signal against this first-half over.
  12. Game total over 56
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • FanDuel/DraftKings show over 55.5 at -105; ProphetX offers the higher 56 threshold at +108.
    • Projection: both offenses average above 0.36 EPA per play, above 0.55 success rate, and above 0.13 explosive-play rate through three games.
    • Most likely loss: red-zone stalls or a one-sided second half produce fewer than 57 points despite strong early efficiency.
  13. Game total points under 55
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 current sample shows K-State at 30.77 seconds per play and Cincinnati's recent 10-game pace at 22.87; possession count is not priced as a pure shootout.
    • K-State's current offense is .555 success and .133 explosive rate; Cincinnati is .573 and .125, but both defenses average negative defensive EPA/play allowed across three games.
    • only recent results totaled 41 and 51 for K-State, and 49 and 66 for Cincinnati; the 55.5 sportsbook reference is above that limited two-game-per-team FBS sample.
    • K-State/Cincinnati combined current totals average 58.8 points across three games each; the under needs regression from several high-scoring results.

Questions

Who won Kansas State vs. Cincinnati?

Cincinnati won 31-26 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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