FinalJerry Richardson Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UL | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 |
| CLT | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Top model pick, graded
WonLouisiana Ragin' Cajuns spread −10 −108
Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: Louisiana owns the efficiency matchup: +0.15 offensive EPA/play and -0.21 defensive EPA/play versus Charlotte's +0.00 and +0.28.
Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 9-10 on this game · −16% return
- Charlotte 49ers to win−100%Lost
Taken at 23¢ on Polymarket
3 modelsCFB Heater, Quantitative +EV Analyst +1Why 3 models like it
CFB Heater- Sportsbooks imply roughly 23.6% fair probability for Charlotte; the 22.5¢ contract is not a large price discount.
Quantitative +EV Analyst- Predictor makes Louisiana a 7.55-point favorite, below the 9.5-point market spread.
- FanDuel +310 is the best verified U.S. price; current board and odds were refreshed within minutes of kickoff.
- Last-10 net EPA favors Louisiana 0.13 to -0.38, a 0.51 EPA/play gap against this upset.
Long Way Home- Three live ProphetX book levels support the underdog offer; this is real displayed stake, not depth_stake.
- Sharp reference: Pinnacle +308 and FanDuel +310; ProphetX improves the underdog price to +325.
- Most likely loss: Louisiana's stronger three-game profile converts into a routine road win.
- Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns spread −10+93%Won
Taken at −108 on DraftKings
2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Key Number CFBWhy 2 models like it
Kickoff Ledger- Louisiana owns the efficiency matchup: +0.15 offensive EPA/play and -0.21 defensive EPA/play versus Charlotte's +0.00 and +0.28.
- Louisiana averages 2.63 points per drive versus Charlotte's 1.72; Charlotte is 0-3 while Louisiana is 2-1.
- Biggest risk is Charlotte's home field and a backdoor cover if Louisiana leads late.
Key Number CFB- Louisiana's 2026 EPA profile is materially stronger: +0.14 offensive EPA/play and -0.23 defensive EPA/play allowed versus Charlotte's +0.01 and +0.28.
- PFF team card favors Louisiana 77.6 overall to Charlotte 68.4; the spread market's 9 to 9.5 range corroborates a Louisiana margin near this rung.
- Louisiana winning by exactly 10 pushes rather than wins; the same key-number cluster also makes nearby margins volatile.
- Game total over 50.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, ProphetX PairsWhy 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs- Three-game 2026 sample: Louisiana averages +0.14 EPA/play, 45.9% success and 13.9% explosive plays; Charlotte allows +0.30 defensive EPA/play.
- Charlotte averages +0.01 offensive EPA/play and 42.0% success; Louisiana allows -0.24 defensive EPA/play, creating a high-variance but still positive matchup for the total.
- Most likely loss: Louisiana's strong defense suppresses Charlotte's offense and leaves the game in the mid-40s.
ProphetX Pairs- through three games, Louisiana averages 29.7 and Charlotte 23.7 points; combined 53.3 versus 50.5.
- Louisiana offense is +0.14 EPA/play and Charlotte defense allows +0.28 EPA/play; both favor scoring.
- Louisiana's defense allows -0.23 EPA/play, while Charlotte's offense is only +0.01 EPA/play.
- Over 49 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's exact main total is 49: Over -113 / Under -104; multiplicative devig makes Over 51.0%.
- Possession convergence favors scoring: 28.99 and 28.03 seconds per play, 407 combined current-season plays, PPD 2.63/1.72 and explosive rates .139/.131; no adverse weather signal (sunny, 6-mph NW wind, 0% precipitation).
- Only three current-season advanced rows per team, so the Group-of-Five sample is thin and prior-season blending matters.
- Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns spread −9.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- game 2026 sample: Louisiana averaged +0.14 EPA/play and .454 success rate; Charlotte's defense allowed +0.28 EPA/play.
- Louisiana's defense averaged -0.23 EPA/play allowed versus Charlotte's offense at +0.01 EPA/play; the two-way mismatch supports separation.
- PFF team card: Louisiana 77.6 overall, 71.2 defense, 73.9 coverage versus Charlotte 68.4, 63.9, and 51.1 respectively.
- Louisiana's offense was -0.29 EPA/play in its latest game, so the season average may overstate current form.
- Charlotte 49ers +9.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- CFB predictor makes Louisiana a 7.55-point favorite, 1.95 points short of the posted 9.5-point spread.
- Charlotte covered 8 of its last 8 games with recorded DraftKings spreads; two newer games lacked recorded closing lines.
- Charlotte's 2026 losses were by 5, 32, and 2 points, supporting volatility around a large number.
- Charlotte is 0-3 this season and its recent offense posted -0.18 EPA per play.
Show all 15 picks
- Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 1st-half winner+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Louisiana's last three-game average: 0.14 EPA/play, 45.4% success rate, and 2.63 points per drive.
- Charlotte's corresponding offense averages 0.01 EPA/play, 42.0% success, and 1.72 points per drive.
- Louisiana's defense averages -0.23 defensive EPA/play allowed; Charlotte's defense averages +0.28.
- Charlotte is at home and its recent +15.3% PROE suggests an aggressive opening script that could create early possessions.
- Game total under 51.5+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- under 51.5 wins at 51; it has no push.
- ProphetX quotes under 51.5 at 57.63c (-136) versus under 51 at 56.14c (-128).
- National 2014-25 exact-total frequency is not matchup-specific; this game's scoring distribution may differ.
- Charlotte 49ers +7 spread (push if Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns win by exactly 7; 7.854% historical exact-margin mass)−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Charlotte +7 pushes, rather than loses, if Louisiana wins by exactly 7.
- ProphetX prices +7 at 43.10c versus +7.5 at 47.17c: only a 4.07c gap.
- Aggregate CFB margin mass may not match this matchup's true 7-point probability.
- Game total over 48−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are 3 versus 3, so two of three measures agree: Over is thin at quote while materially deeper across the ladder.
- Directional check: backing Over 48, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Venue self-reference is not an independent total-points model or ticket/handle source; this remains a testable hypothesis.
- Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns spread −8+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are 3 versus 3, so two of three measures agree: thin at quote plus materially deeper total demand.
- Directional check: backing Louisiana -8, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book-level count does not corroborate the side: both sides show 3 levels.
- Game total points under 50+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Louisiana defense allowed -0.09 EPA/play in its 2026 five-game recent window; Charlotte offense is at -0.19 EPA/play and 38.0% success.
- CFB total histogram clusters at 41 (277 games), 44 (272) and 47 (215), supporting discrete lower-score mass rather than a smooth ladder.
- PFF 2026 card favors the under: Louisiana defense grades 71.2 versus Charlotte offense 64.5; Louisiana leads the game-market spread while the total stays near 50.
- Charlotte's defense has allowed 0.22 EPA/play recently, and Louisiana's offense averages +0.08, so short fields can create a fast over.
- Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns first-half spread over 6.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's full-game home +9.0 implies Louisiana about +4.5 at halftime; the board is +9.5, so mean is approximately +4.6.
- Own 2024-26 FBS sample: 2,343 signed margins, SD 22.95; sqrt-half scaling gives a 16.23 first-half SD, not 11.48.
- College margin mass is +3 (100), +7 (98), and -3 (96); 6.5 is between observed masses, favoring the variance-aware NO over naive halving.
- Only three games per team; efficiency and points-per-drive estimates are noisy and opponent-adjusted only weakly.
- 1H total over 13.5+12%Won
Taken at 89¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle 49.0 and DraftKings 49.5 full-game totals; own first-half scaling projects 27.4 points, not 24.5/2.
- Season-to-date (3 games): Louisiana 70.0 plays at 28.91 sec/play; Charlotte 65.7 at 28.11; 35 drives each, or 11.67 combined drives per full game.
- QB gate cleared: live game coverage names Lunch Winfield and Cole Gonzales; both led their teams in attempts across the last three games.
- LEAN, not RECOMMENDED: the 1H reference is derived from a full-game sharp line, not an independent posted 1H total.
- Game total points over 50.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current three-game blend points to roughly 53.4: Louisiana scores 29.7/game and Charlotte allows 36.7; Charlotte scores 23.7 and Louisiana allows 23.3.
- Tempo is moderate at 29.1 and 28.2 seconds/play; Charlotte's current PROE averages +0.15 and explosive rate .146, while Louisiana's success rate is .454.
- ProphetX's own team-total rungs sum to 51 (Louisiana 30.5, Charlotte 20.5), supporting the full-game over reference.
- Most likely loss: Louisiana's strong current defensive EPA profile forces Charlotte below its 20.5 team-total reference.
Questions
Who won Louisiana vs. Charlotte?
Louisiana won 34-7 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.