FinalUFCU Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INCA | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| TXST | 28 | 14 | 0 | 21 | 63 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-8 on this game · −100% return
- Game total under 63.5−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Texas State Bobcats first-half spread NO over 17.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle -31 full-game spread implies a 15.5-point first-half mean.
- Own 2023-25 regular-season margin SD: 14.60; square-root half-possession scaling gives 10.32 first-half SD.
- At the exact 17.5 rung, model P(Texas State exceeds 17.5) is 42.3%; NO is 57.7%, fair -136.
- 2026 advanced pace, EPA, and points-per-drive rows are absent for this scheduled game; the mean is sharp-line-scaled.
- Game total under 60.5−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- under 60.5 wins at 60 or fewer points and cannot push.
- adjacent under 60 pushes at exactly 60, while ProphetX quotes it at +170 (37.04c).
- ProphetX quotes under 60.5 at +172 (36.76c): the better half-point contract also pays more than the whole-number rung.
- The total must finish at 60 or fewer; a late touchdown, overtime, or defensive score breaks the under.
- Incarnate Word Cardinals +30.5 spread−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- +30.5 wins when Texas State wins by 30 or fewer; it cannot push.
- adjacent Incarnate Word +30 pushes at exactly a 30-point Texas State win, quoted -104 (50.98c).
- ProphetX quotes +30.5 at +100 (50.00c): the half-point both adds the 30-point win and pays better than +30.
- Incarnate Word still loses if Texas State wins by 31 or more; no projection edge is claimed.
- Incarnate Word Cardinals spread +27.5−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- current Texas State defense allowed +0.28 EPA/play and 41.7 points/game across 3 games.
- Incarnate Word is scoring 44.7 points/game through 3; Emmett Brown is the official preview's lone listed QB.
- PFF 2026 card: UIW defense 90.4 overall/86.3 coverage versus Texas State offense 70.9 overall.
- Most likely loss: Texas State creates an early multi-score lead and UIW cannot sustain its scoring pace.
- Incarnate Word Cardinals spread +30.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Texas State is 1-2: it lost by 52 to Texas, by 5 to UTSA, and beat North Texas by 14.
- Incarnate Word is 2-1, with a 30-23 win at Houston Christian and a 28-38 loss at Northern Arizona.
- Texas State allowed 35 and 31 points in its two non-Texas games, creating multiple paths for the dog to stay competitive.
- Most likely loss: Texas State repeats its 605-yard, 49-point performance against a weaker defense and wins by 31+.
Show all 8 picks
- Incarnate Word Cardinals to win−100%Lost
Taken at 5¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- no same-line sharp moneyline was posted; this is a model-only projection edge.
- Texas State is 1-2; Incarnate Word is 2-1 through three 2026 games, supporting a less extreme matchup than the price implies.
- Texas State can win routinely; any Bobcats victory loses this contract.
- Game total points under 65.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX’s 66.5 full-game rung is 4.5 points above its 45.5 + 16.5 team-total anchor (62).
- Tempo context: Texas State’s three 2026 games average 25.39 seconds per play, -0.01 PROE, 12.5% explosive rate and 50.6% success rate.
- PFF’s 2026 card grades UIW’s defense 90.4 overall and 91.9 against the run, versus Texas State at 77.6 and 79.6.
- Most likely loss: Texas State’s explosive offense creates short fields while UIW reaches its 2026 scoring range, pushing the game beyond 66 points.
Questions
Who won Incarnate Word vs. Texas State?
Texas State won 63-10 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.