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FinalScott Stadium
Delaware2-1
3–42Final
Virginia2-1
Score by period
Team1234T
DEL03003
UVA7217742

Top model pick, graded

Won

Virginia Cavaliers spread −26 35¢

Why House Rules likes it: Virginia -26 pushes on exactly a 26-point win; Virginia -26.5 loses on that result.

House RulesDown 3% this season · 1403 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 9-9 on this game · +7% return

  1. Delaware Blue Hens to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 9¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Money, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Backing Delaware, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; two of three measures agree, with book_levels tied 3-3.
    • Book_levels are tied at 3-3, so the corroborating third measure does not agree.
    Long Way Home
    • Predictor's projected Virginia margin is 16.63, narrower than ProphetX's 19.5-point spread ladder.
    • Virginia is 2-1 with a 120-49 scoring margin; Delaware is 2-1 at 90-56.
  2. Virginia Cavaliers spread −26High conviction
    +186%Won

    Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Virginia -26 pushes on exactly a 26-point win; Virginia -26.5 loses on that result.
    • ProphetX prices Virginia -26 at 34.97¢ versus 36.50¢ for the inferior -26.5 rung, a 1.53¢ inversion.
  3. Delaware Blue Hens spread +19
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model margin mean 17.4 with SD 17.0 makes Delaware +19 fair at 53.8%.
    • Pinnacle main line is Virginia -20 / Delaware +20; -107 and -105 devig to 50.2% Delaware cover probability.
    • Three current advanced rows per team plus prior-season blend show the efficiency gap is smaller than the 20-point market number; QB gate cleared: Minicucci and Pribula are confirmed starters and led their teams' latest pass-attempt rows.
    • Delaware is the Group-of-Five side, so this is partial coverage and the model cap binds; one projection error invalidates the edge.
  4. Nick Minicucci over 211.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7 of Minicucci's last 10 passing appearances cleared 211.5 yards; model hit probability 70%.
    • FanDuel -114 implies 53.3%, creating a 16.7-point model margin.
    • Official Delaware preview identifies Minicucci as the quarterback and reports 814 yards and five passing touchdowns.
    • Three of the last 10 appearances finished below 211.5, including two under 180 yards.
  5. Game total under 52.5 points
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Virginia and Delaware average 30.7 and 24.1 seconds per play respectively; wind favors fewer explosive passes.
    • Combined scoring baseline is 52.5, but both defenses post negative EPA allowed: Virginia -0.11, Delaware -0.13.
    • Nick Minicucci and Beau Pribula are confirmed active quarterbacks; no quarterback downgrade is needed.
    • Virginia's offense averages 3.11 points per drive across only three games; efficiency can overwhelm the weather.
  6. Game total points over 52.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Virginia averages +0.25 offensive EPA/play and .524 success across 3 games; Delaware's offense is +0.11 EPA/play and .477 success.
    • Explosive rates are .127 Virginia and .132 Delaware, while both teams have scored 90 and 120 points through 3 games.
    • Beau Pribula and Nick Minicucci are confirmed starters by the latest passing boxes and a Sep. 26 preview.
    • Most likely loss: Virginia controls a blowout, shortens the second half, and creates too few possessions.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Virginia Cavaliers spread −22.5
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Virginia's 3-game 2026 offense: +0.25 EPA/play, 52.4% success, and 12.7% explosive plays.
    • Delaware's 3-game defense allowed +0.13 EPA/play on average; the offense-versus-defense EPA gap favors Virginia by roughly 0.38 EPA/play.
    • Beau Pribula and Nick Minicucci led their teams in last-game pass attempts; a live search also listed both as the starters.
    • G5 opponent caps this at LEAN; both teams have only three current-season efficiency rows.
  2. Delaware Blue Hens +20.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Virginia's live CFB predictor projects a 16.63-point home margin, 3.88 points below the market line.
    • Delaware covered 6 of its latest 10 games with valid DK spreads, including its latest five.
    • Delaware is 3-0 ATS in 2026, while the current +20.5 at FanDuel implies roughly a 52.4% raw break-even rate.
    • Virginia owns a 94.3 latest-season PFF team grade and has a strong recent defensive EPA profile.
  3. Delaware Blue Hens 1st-half winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 13¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimate: Delaware wins the half 24%; Kalshi's three-way ladder devigs to 12.2%.
    • Delaware's last three-game offense averaged 2.32 points per drive, 47.7% success and 24.4 seconds per play.
    • Delaware's +16.1% average PROE and 13.2% explosive rate support an aggressive opening script with enough possessions to challenge the favorite.
    • Virginia's recent offensive EPA/play averaged +0.25 versus Delaware's +0.11; the talent gap can decide the opening script.
  4. Game total under 52 (push at exactly 52)
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 52 pushes and refunds at exactly 52; it loses only at 53+.
    • The contract loses on 53 or more; a two-point move from the push outcome changes the result.
  5. Game total points under 56.5
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 samples show slow combined pace, Delaware 24.43 and Virginia 30.73 seconds per play across 3 games each.
    • Virginia has scored 120 points in three games, so one-sided efficiency can beat the under even if Delaware contributes little.
  6. Da'Wain Lofton over 4.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +106 on BetOnline

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Target share rose 15.2% → 15.6% → 21.9% across 3 games; share CV is 17.0%, while yards/target fell 28.4 → 7.4 after the spike.
    • Delaware posted 62, 74 and 63 plays with 33, 32 and 32 pass attempts; recent pass rates stayed 59.7%, 55.4% and 54.8%.
    • PFF charting shows 92.0% route rate, 92 routes, 18 targets and 13 receptions; the opportunity share is supported beyond raw yardage.
    • Only three 2026 games qualify; the target-share rise and efficiency collapse can still be small-sample noise.
  7. Virginia Cavaliers first-half spread NO over 10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 season-to-date PPD is Virginia 3.11 versus Delaware 2.32; sharp-calibrated first-half mean is approximately 10.0.
    • Empirical 2024, 26 college margin SD is 15.85; square-root half scaling gives 11.21 first-half SD, not the naive 7.93.
    • At rung 10.5, mean 10.0 and SD 11.21 produce approximately 51.8% NO; Kalshi's matched NO price is 48¢.
    • Only three 2026 games per team; PPD, EPA, and opponent-strength adjustments are thin.
  8. 1H total over 27.5 points
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 season-to-date: Delaware averages 66.3 plays at 24.4 sec/play and 2.32 points/drive; Virginia 69.7, 30.7, and 3.11.
    • Blended pace is 27.6 sec/play; 68 first-half plays ÷ 6.2 plays/drive gives approximately 11 total drives, 5.5 per team.
    • Pinnacle full-game 52.5; scaling by the model's 32.5/59.6 first-half share gives a shown-math 28.6-point same-rung reference.
    • Only three games per team form the pace and efficiency sample; opponent adjustment is limited.
  9. Virginia Cavaliers spread −20.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 efficiency favors Virginia: +0.25 EPA/play and 52.4% success versus Delaware’s +0.11 and 47.7%.
    • QB gate cleared: official Virginia preview expects Beau Pribula; latest boxes list Pribula and Nick Minicucci as each team’s attempt leader.
    • Most likely loss: Virginia wins but lands 17, 20 points ahead, missing the 20.5 spread.
  10. Game total under 50.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • sportsbook total is 52.5; ProphetX offers 50.5, providing a two-point cushion.
    • Fresh 13-hour matchup listing names Nick Minicucci and Beau Pribula as starters; CFB X injury signal showed no contrary claim.
    • Virginia's FBS-only offensive EPA/play is +0.18; early scores can erase the tempo edge.
  11. Virginia Cavaliers spread −21.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Virginia’s 2026 offense is +0.25 EPA/play and 52.4% success, versus Delaware at +0.11 and 47.7%.
    • Virginia beat NC State 34-8; Delaware lost at Vanderbilt 26-35, supporting a meaningful quality-gap projection.
    • Pinnacle’s reference is Virginia -20 at -105; ProphetX offers -21.5 at +129, a 1.5-point penalty for a materially better payout.
    • Most likely loss: Virginia wins but the margin lands between 1 and 21 points; Delaware has already posted 395 yards and an eight-point win over Coastal Carolina.

Questions

Who won Delaware vs. Virginia?

Virginia won 42-3 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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