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FinalDoyt L. Perry Stadium
South Florida3-0
14–6Final
Bowling Green0-3
Score by period
Team1234T
USF0001414
BGSU33006

Top model pick, graded

Won

South Florida Bulls to win 90¢

Why CFB Heater likes it: South Florida is 3-0 with +0.23 recent EPA/play; Bowling Green is 0-3 with -0.03 recent EPA/play.

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-12 on this game · −40% return

  1. South Florida Bulls to winFavorite2 models agree
    +11%Won

    Taken at 90¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsCFB Heater, D1 Winner
    Why 2 models like it
    CFB Heater
    • South Florida is 3-0 with +0.23 recent EPA/play; Bowling Green is 0-3 with -0.03 recent EPA/play.
    • Bowling Green can win outright through turnover variance or a special-teams swing despite the large matchup gap.
    D1 Winner
    • Recent defense EPA/play allowed: USF -0.04 versus Bowling Green +0.12.
    • QB/injury family supports USF: Michael Van Buren Jr. has 639 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs on 80 attempts; no QB injury report surfaced.
    • Current-season efficiency samples contain only three games per team, so opponent adjustment and Bayesian shrinkage remain noisy.
  2. South Florida Bulls spread −16.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsKey Number CFB, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Key Number CFB
    • South Florida’s 2026 offense is +0.29 EPA/play versus Bowling Green’s -0.10; BGSU defense allows +0.28 EPA/play.
    • QB gate cleared: last-game pass-attempt leaders were Michael Van Buren Jr. (32) and Jay Kastantin (17); same-day official pages list both with no availability concern.
    • BGSU’s 2026 offensive sample is only three games; the -0.10 EPA/play could regress sharply at home.
    Long Way Home
    • South Florida's latest two offensive EPA/play marks are +0.62 and +0.35; Bowling Green's are -0.03 and -0.12.
    • The predictor is a projection, not a calibrated cover probability; the current-season sample is only two games per team.
  3. Over 48.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Possession case: the teams averaged 120.4 offensive plays per game through three current-season rows, with USF at 22.4% explosive rate last week and BGSU at 7.3%.
    • BGSU averaged only 11.3 points across its first three games; stalled drives can keep this below 48.5.
  4. South Florida Bulls spread −18.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +0.29 offensive EPA/play and .537 success rate; Bowling Green: -0.10 and .401.
    • Bowling Green allows +0.28 defensive EPA/play versus USF's +0.03 allowed.
    • Van Buren and Kastantin are confirmed starters; USF's Van Buren has 639 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT.
    • Three-game efficiency samples are thin and opponent-adjustment is incomplete.
  5. Game total points under 50
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 sample (3 games): Bowling Green is -0.10 EPA/play, 40.2% success and 1.15 points/drive; USF defense allows +0.03 EPA/play.
    • USF's efficiency advantage can produce a lopsided score, but Bowling Green's low success rate and 9.7% explosive rate limit its scoring contribution.
    • sportsbook totals are 48.5/49; ProphetX under 50 supplies a full-point-plus cushion over that reference.
    • The most likely loss is USF scoring 40-plus while Bowling Green adds short-field or explosive scores, pushing the game over 50.
  6. South Florida Bulls −18.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B), clearing the 70-point fire threshold.
    • Projected margin 26.7 points versus the posted 18.5-point line: 8.2 points of cushion.
    • South Florida is 3-0 and has outscored opponents 106-50; Bowling Green is 0-3 and has been outscored 27-131.
    • USF covered this number in only 5 of its last 10 by the current 18.5-point threshold.
Show all 17 picks
  1. 1H total under 26.5 points
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent first-half drive scoring averaged 13.7 USF points and 7.0 Bowling Green points; combined baseline 20.7.
    • Bowling Green's last three offensive EPA/play marks were -0.03, -0.12, and -0.14, with points per drive averaging 1.15.
    • South Florida's recent offense is efficient but volatile; its two non-FCS first halves produced 6 and 7 points before the Delaware State outlier.
    • Only three games per team; USF's 28-point first half against Delaware State shows a wide upper tail.
  2. South Florida Bulls 1st-half winnerFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 80¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • USF averages +0.29 offensive EPA/play and 0.54 success rate across three 2026 games.
    • Bowling Green averages -0.10 offensive EPA/play and 0.40 success rate; its defense has allowed 0.28 EPA/play.
    • USF's script profile leads on EPA, success, explosive rate, PROE, and points per drive.
    • Only three games of 2026 data; opponent-quality adjustment is limited.
  3. Game total under 48
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 48 pushes/refunds at exactly 48; under 48.5 wins at 48, so the rungs are not interchangeable.
    • The quoted edge is small and sensitive to exchange commission, repricing, and the adjacent 48.5 quote moving.
  4. Game total over 48
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Over depth_stake $5,560 vs Under $3,141; 1.77x total depth supports patient demand behind Over.
    • book_levels are Over 3 vs Under 3; the two core measures qualify. Directional check: backing Over 48, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches.
    • book_levels tie 3-3, so the third measure does not corroborate the read.
  5. Game total points over 48.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • South Florida's recent profile is +0.23 offensive EPA/play and 3.15 points/drive; Bowling Green allows +0.12 defensive EPA/play and has allowed 131 points in three games.
    • The official USF game-day article names Michael Van Buren Jr.; latest box data has him at 32 attempts. Official BGSU game-day/roster material lists Jay Kastantin at QB, with 17 latest-game attempts.
    • The sharp reference supports the higher-scoring side, while the ladder's key-number treatment supplies the specific projection edge rather than a payout-only argument.
    • Bowling Green's recent offense is weak (-0.03 EPA/play; 1.75 points/drive), so USF could cover without enough Falcon scoring.
  6. Game total points under 48.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX's 48.5 full-game total sits a half-point above its 33.5 and 14.5 team-total rungs summed at 48.0.
    • QB gate cleared: last-game pass leaders were Michael Van Buren Jr. (32 attempts) and Jay Kastantin (17); current web checks identify both as their teams' quarterbacks.
    • South Florida has scored 106 points in three games; a 40-plus-point Bulls performance leaves little room for Bowling Green's low output.
  7. South Florida Bulls 1H spread over 10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1,853-game 2024, 25 college sample had full-game margin SD 22.04; sqrt-half scaling gives SD 15.59.
    • 2026 data: USF/BGSU points-per-drive 3.28/1.15; 11.3 average first-half drives implies +12.0, shrunk toward +9.25 sharp half-scale to +10.4.
    • Pinnacle full-game USF -18.5 scales to +9.25 first-half margin, broadly agreeing with the blended mean.
    • Only three 2026 games per team; points-per-drive and explosive-rate estimates are noisy.
  8. South Florida Bulls spread −10.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 71¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • game 2026 sample: USF +0.29 offensive EPA/play and 54.2% success versus Bowling Green -0.10 and 40.1%.
    • USF's 3.28 points/drive dwarfs Bowling Green's 1.15; the mismatch supports a double-digit margin.
    • captured sportsbook board centered at a different USF -18.5 rung; no cross-rung price comparison used.
    • Most likely loss: USF fails to finish drives and Bowling Green scores enough late for a backdoor cover.
  9. 1H total under 19.5 points
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • prior 2026 drives were 31 USF and 35 BGSU; weighted points/drive were 3.42 and 0.77, blending to 2.10.
    • The 9.2% PPD uplift is derived from weighted USF/BGSU PROE and explosive rates: .099/.141 and .027/.102, respectively.
    • Kalshi's raw quote was read in the fraction regime, not cents; the NO contract price is now confirmed at 62¢ for the Over 19.5 contract.
    • Seven Q1 drives indicate unusually quick possessions; another seven-drive quarter would break the drive projection.
  10. South Florida Bulls spread −17
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Through 3 games, USF leads BGSU in off EPA/play 0.29 to -0.10, success rate .542 to .401, and explosive rate .140 to .097.
    • sportsbook main spread is 18.5, leaving ProphetX's -17 one-and-a-half points of cushion; reference only.
    • Both quarterbacks are identified in current game-day material, but cfb_injury_x_signal returned no current status report; availability is not explicitly cleared.
  11. Game total over 55.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • South Florida's latest profile: +0.62 offensive EPA/play, 65.7% success rate, and 22.4% explosive rate.
    • Bowling Green's defense posted +0.36 EPA/play allowed in its latest game and +0.45 the week before.
    • The 48.5 sharp-reference main total leaves seven points of headroom; the mismatch creates a live 56+ upper tail.
    • Most likely loss: South Florida leads early, then pace and playing time collapse into a 45-52 type finish.

Questions

Who won South Florida vs. Bowling Green?

South Florida won 14-6 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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