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FinalSpartan Stadium
Nebraska3-0
31–13Final
Michigan State2-1
Score by period
Team1234T
NEB7170731
MSU373013

Top model pick, graded

Won

Nebraska Cornhuskers spread −5.5 53¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 18-5 on this game · +49% return

  1. Nebraska Cornhuskers to winFavorite3 models agree
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, D1 Winner +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • Model projects Nebraska 71.5% to win from a -7.84 projected margin; current Pinnacle fair price is 67.6%.
    • Nebraska leads current-season EPA/play (+0.38 vs Michigan State +0.11), success rate (.529 vs .496), and explosive rate (.173 vs .119).
    • The movement feed supplies the opening Michigan State quote but not the opening away-side quote, so the opening devigged probability is unquantified.
    D1 Winner
    • 2026 per-game EPA: Nebraska offense +0.38 versus Michigan State +0.11; Nebraska defense -0.10 versus +0.03.
    • Through three games, Anthony Colandrea has 692 passing yards and 8 touchdowns versus Alessio Milivojevic's 540 and 3.
    • Nebraska has three DBs listed Out and another DB Questionable; replacement-starter status is not confirmed.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • game current sample: Nebraska off EPA/play +0.38 vs MSU defensive allowed +0.03.
    • Nebraska success rate .529 vs .496 for MSU; Nebraska explosive rate .173 vs MSU .119 offensively.
    • Three-game sample is small and built partly against nonconference opponents.
  2. Nebraska Cornhuskers spread −6.53 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Nebraska's 2026 three-game offense averages +0.38 EPA/play versus Michigan State's +0.11.
    • Nebraska leads the current three-game sample in success rate, 52.9% to 49.6%, and explosive rate, 17.3% to 11.9%.
    • The bet needs Nebraska to win by at least seven; a one-score road game loses despite the efficiency edge.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • ProphetX prices Nebraska -210 on the moneyline (67.74¢) but Nebraska -6.5 at +106 (48.54¢); its related markets disagree.
    • Nebraska's 2026 profile leads Michigan State in offense EPA/play (.3844 to .1074), success rate (.5292 to .4964), and explosive rate (.1732 to .1188).
    • Partial tier: Nebraska's three-game sample includes FCS North Dakota, leaving only two FBS games; Michigan State has three FBS opponents.
    Long Way Home
    • Nebraska's three wins were by 28, 49, and 27; MSU's margins were +10, +28, and -17.
    • Nebraska's offense posted +0.43, +0.45, and +0.27 EPA/play; MSU's latest offense was -0.11 EPA/play.
    • Three-game sample; Nebraska's wins all came at home, while this is its first road game.
  3. Nebraska Cornhuskers spread −5.52 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsCFB Heater, Kickoff Ledger
    Why 2 models like it
    CFB Heater
      • The freshest aggressive activity is concentrated in 0x3dfb; ns9z's last purchase was September 24, not today.
      Kickoff Ledger
      • Nebraska leads 2026 offense in EPA/play, +0.38 to Michigan State's +0.11; success rate 52.9% to 49.6%.
      • Nebraska's defense is materially better by EPA/play (-0.10 versus Michigan State +0.03 allowed), with a 17.3% explosive-play rate versus 11.9%.
      • Three-game efficiency sample is small, and Nebraska's numbers were built mostly against nonconference opponents.
    • Game total under 48.52 models agree
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way Home
      Why 2 models like it
      ProphetX Pairs
      • Michigan State averaged only 0.11 offensive EPA/play and 11.9% explosive plays through three games.
      • Nebraska's defense allowed -0.10 EPA/play on average, with Michigan State's weakest offense showing against Notre Dame.
      • Nebraska's offense averaged 0.38 EPA/play and 17.3% explosive plays, so its early schedule can produce a fast start.
      Long Way Home
      • Michigan State scored 10, 35, and 30 points in its first three games; its 2026 offensive EPA/play is -0.11 against Notre Dame.
      • Nebraska has allowed only 7, 7, and 21 points so far; MSU's slow 30.76-second pace versus Notre Dame supports a lower-possession script.
      • Nebraska's first three offensive EPA/play marks were 0.43, 0.45, and 0.27; explosive plays can clear the total quickly.
    • Under 49 total points
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model projects roughly 22 combined possessions and a matchup-adjusted mean near 45.5 points; the number-of-chances case favors the Under.
      • Michigan State's current offense is only 0.11 EPA/play and 2.55 points/drive; Nebraska's defense is -0.10 EPA/play allowed this season.
      • Nebraska's current 4.25 points/drive and 17.3% explosive rate can overwhelm the Under if its early-season efficiency travels.
    • Alessio Milivojevic under 189.5 passing yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −114 on FanDuel

      Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Nebraska's current defense allows -0.10 EPA/play, 44th-best of 244 teams in the sample (top 18%).
      • FanDuel's -114 is a live, directly priced player-passing-yards market for this game.
      • The hit rate is threshold-level, not dominant; the last three games are only 2-for-3 under.
    Show all 17 picks
    1. Nebraska Cornhuskers 1st-half winner
      +72%Won

      Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

      Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model: Nebraska first-half win probability 62%, 4.2 points above Kalshi’s 57.8% devigged substitute reference.
      • Nebraska averaged 0.38 offensive EPA/play and .529 success rate across its last three games.
      • Nebraska offense versus MSU defense grades +.352 EPA/play, versus +.209 for the reverse matchup.
      • Michigan State’s pace inputs are erratic, 30.76, 2.25, and 4.25 seconds/play, weakening possession projections.
    2. 1H total over 24.5
      +104%Won

      Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

      Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pace arithmetic, Nebraska 27.55 and Michigan State 28.33 seconds/play blend to 27.94.
      • Only three games per team; six-game first-half sample has 17, 35 points, so variance is wide.
    3. Game total over 48 (push at exactly 48)
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • over 48 pushes at exactly 48; over 48.5 loses at exactly 48.
      • ProphetX quotes over 48 at 53.49¢ versus over 48.5 at 51.92¢: only 1.57¢ premium.
      • If the game reaches 49 or more, both over contracts win; the edge matters only at exactly 48.
    4. Game total under 46.5
      +138%Won

      Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Backing Under 46.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • The book-level measure is tied 3-3, so this is not full three-measure confirmation.
    5. Nebraska −5.5
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Backing Nebraska -5.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • The book-level measure is tied 3-3, so this is not full three-measure confirmation.
    6. Game total points over 48.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Nebraska’s 2026 offense is +0.38 EPA/play, 0.53 success rate and 0.17 explosive rate through three games.
      • Michigan State’s 2026 defense is +0.03 EPA/play allowed, while its offense is +0.11 EPA/play with 0.12 explosiveness.
      • Pinnacle’s reference total is 49; ProphetX’s 47.5-to-48.5 ladder prices the move as 55.36¢ to 51.92¢.
      • Nebraska’s defense is strong at -0.10 EPA/play, creating a credible 17, 14 or 24, 20 under path.
    7. Nebraska Cornhuskers spread −3.5
      +72%Won

      Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

      Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle reference is Nebraska -5.5 (-112), two points worse than this ProphetX rung.
      • 2026 EPA: Nebraska +0.38 offense / -0.10 allowed; Michigan State +0.11 / +0.03.
      • Nebraska offense 88.0 versus Michigan State 77.0; Nebraska is 3-0, Michigan State 2-1.
      • Michigan State home field and its 83.1 PFF defense versus Nebraska's 76.5 can keep the margin inside four.
    8. Game total points under 49.5
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • full-game 49.5 is 0.5 above ProphetX team-total sum of Michigan State 21.5 + Nebraska 27.5.
      • 2026 sample is three games each; Michigan State scored 75 total while Nebraska allowed 35 total.
      • Nebraska's defense allowed -0.10 EPA/play and Michigan State's offense averaged 49.6% success; the matchup points below 49.5.
      • Most likely loss: Nebraska's 17.3% explosive-play rate produces short fields or multiple chunk touchdowns.
    9. Nebraska Cornhuskers 1H spread NO over 6.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi

      Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2024-26 completed-game margin SD is 15.85 across 2,327 games; sqrt-half scaling gives 11.21, not 7.92.
      • Pinnacle’s full-game Nebraska -5.5 scales to a first-half mean near +3.0 after a modest first-half adjustment.
      • Nebraska’s three-game profile leads MSU in offensive EPA/play 0.38 to 0.11 and explosive rate 0.17 to 0.12.
      • Only about 1.2 percentage points separate the model’s 0.62 NO probability from the 61c entry price.
    10. Game total over 49.5 points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −108 on DraftKings

      Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • The CFB predictor projects 28.5 Michigan State points and a -7.84 home differential, implying roughly 36.3 Nebraska points and a 64.8-point fair total.
      • Nebraska averages 46.3 points through three games; Michigan State averages 25.0, while their combined 2026 scoring average is 71.3 points.
      • Nebraska's offense owns +0.38 EPA/play, 52.9% success, and 17.3% explosiveness; Michigan State's defense has allowed +0.03 EPA/play.
      • Michigan State scored only 10 points against Notre Dame, and Nebraska's -0.10 defensive EPA/play could suppress the home offense.
    11. Nebraska Cornhuskers −7 spread
      +122%Won

      Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Nebraska -7 pushes at exactly a 7-point win; 8+ wins, 6 or fewer loses.
      • ProphetX prices Nebraska -7 at +123 (44.84¢) versus -7.5 at +138 (42.02¢): only 2.82 implied points apart.
      • The reference is ProphetX's own adjacent rung, not an independent sharp price; both quotes can be wrong.

    Questions

    Who won Nebraska vs. Michigan State?

    Nebraska won 31-13 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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