Get app
FinalAllen E. Paulson Stadium
Houston2-1
42–28Final
Georgia Southern1-2
Score by period
Team1234T
HOU14147742
GASO0147728

Top model pick, graded

Won

Georgia Southern Eagles spread +17.5 −110

Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: Three-game EPA blend: Houston offense +0.38/play versus Georgia Southern defense -0.05 allowed; the matchup is less lopsided than the number.

Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 7-10 on this game · −27% return

  1. Houston Cougars spread −172 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Key Number CFB
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Houston's three current-game offensive EPA/play average is +0.39 versus Georgia Southern's defensive allowed average -0.05; Houston also leads current PPD 3.99 to 2.10.
    • Both current three-game samples support the efficiency direction, and the exact 17 key-number rung is the preferred liquid ProphetX price.
    • Houston's current efficiency sample is only three games per team; opponent adjustment and prior-season blending add model uncertainty.
    Key Number CFB
    • Houston 2026 offense EPA/play is +0.39 versus Georgia Southern +0.04; Houston defense allows -0.11 EPA/play versus -0.05.
    • Latest 2026 PFF team grades favor Houston 91.8 to 72.9, including an 83.3-to-63.2 offensive-grade gap.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia Southern stays within 17 or scores a late backdoor touchdown.
  2. Game total under 56.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B); opponent-adjusted projection is 51.4 versus the 56.5 line, a 9.0% gap.
    • Houston averages 45.3 points scored and Georgia Southern allows 17.7 through three 2026 games.
    • Each team is only 5-for-10 under 56.5 in the last-10 sample, below the 60% preferred consistency gate.
    Long Way Home
    • efficiency blend points to roughly 54, 55 total points, below ProphetX's 56.5.
    • Georgia Southern averages 0.04 offensive EPA/play and 44.5% success; Houston defense allows -0.11 EPA/play.
    • Houston's 0.39 offensive EPA/play and 3.99 points per drive can clear the number alone.
  3. Under 56.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected possession count is moderate at roughly 22.8 combined drives; opponent-adjusted defense pulls the total below the market.
    • Houston averages 45.3 points and 3.99 points per drive through three games; efficient early scoring can erase the under.
  4. Georgia Southern Eagles spread +17.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Three-game EPA blend: Houston offense +0.38/play versus Georgia Southern defense -0.05 allowed; the matchup is less lopsided than the number.
    • Complementary blend is modest: Georgia Southern offense +0.04/play versus Houston defense -0.11 allowed, supporting a competitive home underdog profile.
    • My fair spread is Houston -12.5; FanDuel posts Georgia Southern +17.5 at -110, a five-point cushion versus fair.
    • Only three games of efficiency data; opponent quality and Houston's 77-point outlier widen the estimate.
  5. Houston Cougars spread −16.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 current 3-game sample: Houston off EPA/play +0.39 versus Georgia Southern defensive EPA allowed -0.05.
    • Houston's .594 success rate and 3.99 points/drive lead Georgia Southern's .445 and 2.09 by wide margins.
    • Houston explosive-play rate is .163 versus Georgia Southern's .123; 2026 PFF offense grades are 83.3 versus 63.2.
    • Georgia Southern is an FBS Group of Five opponent, so this is capped at LEAN; current-season sample is only 3 games.
  6. 1H total under 30.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Desk projection: approximately 28, 29 first-half points from pace-adjusted PPD and defensive EPA inputs.
    • Houston averages 3.99 points per drive; Georgia Southern averages 2.09, but Houston's defense allows -0.11 EPA/play.
    • Houston's 28.49-second pace and Georgia Southern's volatile 18.22-second pace create a compressed, matchup-dependent possession count rather than a clean full-game half-split.
    • Only three 2026 games per team; Houston's PPD includes a 6.42 outlier against Southern.
Show all 15 picks
  1. Houston Cougars 1st-half winnerFavorite
    +27%Won

    Taken at 79¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston's three-game averages: 0.39 offensive EPA/play, 0.53 success rate, 0.07 PROE and 28.6 seconds/play.
    • Georgia Southern's three-game averages are weaker: 0.04 offensive EPA/play and 0.45 success rate; Max Johnson and Conner Weigman are identified for the opening script.
    • The 84% estimate is only a three-game sample, with Houston's 77-point Southern win inflating efficiency.
  2. Georgia Southern +23.5 spreadFavorite
    +49%Won

    Taken at 67¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +23.5 wins if Houston wins by exactly 23; adjacent +23 pushes.
    • ProphetX prices Georgia Southern +23 and +23.5 identically at -205; +23.5 captures the exact-23 win.
    • Historical exact-margin frequency is not matchup-specific; this is not a projection claim.
  3. Game total over 55
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Over 55 pushes at exactly 55; over 55.5 loses at exactly 55.
    • ProphetX over 55 is 54.55¢ versus 53.05¢ for over 55.5, only a 1.50¢ premium for the push option.
    • A total of exactly 55 only pushes, producing no profit; the contract still loses below 55.
  4. Houston Cougars spread −19.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so two of three measures agree; backing Houston -19.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Venue self-reference is not an independent statistical edge; the order-flow hypothesis may fail.
  5. Game total points under 55
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston defense is allowing -0.11 EPA/play in 2026; Georgia Southern offense is at +0.04 EPA/play, a poor matchup for a high total.
    • Houston’s 28.6-second offensive pace and Georgia Southern’s 63.2 PFF offense grade point toward Houston control rather than sustained two-way scoring.
    • QB gate cleared: official/box checks identify Conner Weigman and Max Johnson; latest passing attempts were 38 and 33, respectively.
    • Georgia Southern’s 18.2-second pace can create extra possessions despite its modest efficiency.
  6. Houston Cougars 1H spread NO over 10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle prices Houston -17.0 full game; the half-margin mean is +8.5 Houston.
    • 2,764 FBS games from 2023-25 produce signed-margin SD 21.96; sqrt-half scaling gives 15.53.
    • At 10.5, mean +8.5 and SD 15.53 imply Houston NO at 55.1%.
    • Only three 2026 games inform each team's pace and efficiency; the PPD gap may be opponent-driven.
  7. Game total points over 56.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • game 2026 sample: Houston posts +0.39 EPA/play and .594 success; Georgia Southern is +0.04 and .450.
    • Explosive rates are .163 for Houston and .123 for Georgia Southern; PFF offense grades are 83.3 and 63.2.
    • Conner Weigman and Max Johnson led the latest passing rows; official team-note search corroborated both quarterbacks for this matchup.
    • Most likely loss: Houston controls the game while Georgia Southern stalls, producing a score such as 42-10 that stays below 56.5.
  8. 1H total over 30.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game total is 56.5.
    • Three-game window: Houston 28.62 sec/play, 7.4% PROE, 16.3% explosive; Georgia Southern 18.22, 21.1%, 12.3%.
    • Blended 23.42 sec/play × 85% usable clock gives 65.3 half plays; 6.13 plays/drive gives 10.7 drives.
    • Mean clears 30.5 by only 0.2 points; this is a LEAN, not a RECOMMENDED position.
  9. Game total points over 55.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX's Houston 37.5 and Georgia Southern 19.5 team totals sum to 57, 1.5 above the full-game 55.5.
    • Current-season sample is three games per team: Houston averages 0.59 success and 0.16 explosive rate; Georgia Southern averages 0.45 and 0.12.
    • Tempo is mixed but Houston's 45.3 points per game and Georgia Southern's 21.7 points per game support a 55.5 over more than the lower full-game rung.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia Southern's offense stalls against Houston, leaving Houston to score nearly alone against a 56-point target.

Questions

Who won Houston vs. Georgia Southern?

Houston won 42-28 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.