FinalPeden Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STON | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| OHIO | 7 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 35 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 52.5 (exact 52 wins; no push) 46¢
Why House Rules likes it: Under 52.5 wins on totals 0, 52; the adjacent under 52 pushes at exactly 52.
House RulesDown 3% this season · 1403 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-1 on this game · +67% return
- Ohio Bobcats −33 (exact 33-point win pushes; 0.704%)−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Ohio -33 returns stake on exactly a 33-point win; Ohio -32.5 wins that outcome, while Ohio -33.5 loses it.
- A push option does not predict Ohio to cover; without a projection, the underlying cover probability is unknown.
- Game total under 52.5 (exact 52 wins; no push)+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Under 52.5 wins on totals 0, 52; the adjacent under 52 pushes at exactly 52.
- ProphetX charges only 0.64 cents more for under 52.5 (46.30c, +116) than under 52 (45.66c, +119), converting that push mass into wins.
- A total of 53 or more loses; the half-point upgrade does not improve outcomes above 52.
- Stonehill Skyhawks spread +35.5+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX's main spread is Ohio -32.5; +35.5 buys the touchdown key number.
- Ohio's 2026 defense allows +0.33 EPA/play despite a +0.10 offensive EPA/play; the mismatch is less one-sided than the spread implies.
- Latest populated 2026 PFF card: Ohio 69.7 overall versus Stonehill 66.0, a 3.7-point grade gap.
- Ohio's 2026 offensive edge is real: +0.10 EPA/play versus Stonehill's -0.39; a clean mismatch can clear 36.
- Game total under 52+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pace is mixed but Stonehill's 26.51 seconds/play and 1.08 points/drive give the under a low-scoring-side anchor; FCS opponent caps this at LEAN.
- Ohio's defense has allowed +0.33 EPA/play across three games and surrendered 41 points to South Alabama.
- Game total under 53.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Stonehill's logged 2026 offense is -0.39 EPA/play, 29.5% success rate, and 1.08 points per drive.
- Ohio improved to +0.21 offensive EPA/play and 3.18 points per drive in Week 3, but a large lead should increase clock-oriented play and leave Stonehill carrying the scoring burden.
- Pinnacle also lists under 53.5 at -108; the same-line ProphetX offer is materially better at +100.
- Most likely loss: Ohio converts its efficiency into 50-plus points and Stonehill adds enough late scores to reach 54.
- Stonehill Skyhawks spread +32.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Ohio's recent margins are -28, +2, and -5; a 32.5-point separation is not supported by its current results.
- Pinnacle independently shows the same 32.5 spread at -108 on Stonehill, corroborating the number.
- Most likely loss: Ohio's talent gap creates repeated explosive plays and a 33-plus-point margin.
Questions
Who won Stonehill vs. Ohio?
Ohio won 35-7 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.