FinalBroadview Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROBE | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 28 |
| BUF | 0 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 31 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 45.5 52¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-6 on this game · −36% return
- Game total over 45.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Game total under 46.5−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair total: 43.5 versus the 46.5 market, a three-point under margin.
- Buffalo's offense is -0.15 EPA/play with 21, 20 and 13 points in its three games.
- Robert Morris is -0.20 EPA/play and has a 3.8% explosive-play rate.
- Buffalo's FBS talent can create a 30-plus-point output against an FCS defense.
- Robert Morris Colonials spread +28.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair spread: Buffalo -24.5 versus the -28.5 market, a four-point cushion.
- Buffalo posted -0.15 offensive EPA/play and 39.7% success through three games.
- Robert Morris is at -0.20 EPA/play with only a 3.8% explosive-play rate.
- Buffalo has the major FBS-versus-FCS talent advantage and RMU lost by 35 at Akron.
- Game total under 45 (push at exactly 45; exact-total-45 frequency 2.844%)−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX quotes under 45 at +107 (48.31¢) versus under 45.5 at +100 (50.00¢): a seven-American-point payout premium on the whole rung.
- A total below 45 or above 45 still produces the ordinary under result/loss, and the historical push mass is only a small percentage of outcomes.
- Game total points under 47.5−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- DK and ProphetX both center the main total at 46.5, below a high-scoring baseline.
- Key-number density: under 47.5 includes 47; CFB total 47 occurred 213 times in 10,847 regular/postseason games.
- Buffalo can score efficiently against Robert Morris; a short-field or explosive-play game breaks the under.
- Game total points under 46.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Buffalo averages -0.15 EPA/play and .397 success rate across 3 current-season charted games; Robert Morris is -0.20/.396 in 1.
- Both offenses show limited explosiveness: Buffalo .088 and Robert Morris .038 current-season explosive-play rates.
- Buffalo's +.129 PROE and Robert Morris's +.162 do not overcome the weak EPA/success profiles; the matchup favors a one-sided, lower-scoring script.
- vs-FCS matchup and only 1 current-season charted Robert Morris game make this a LEAN, not a recommendation; half-unit stake.
Show all 9 picks
- Robert Morris Colonials spread +28.5 (no push; wins if Buffalo wins by exactly 28)+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days - Game total under 44.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Buffalo averages 18.0 points across three 2026 games; Robert Morris scored 10 in its only game.
- Both current offenses are negative EPA: Buffalo -0.15 per play, Robert Morris -0.20.
- Success rates are only 39.2% and 39.6%; Robert Morris' explosive-play rate is 3.8%.
- Robert Morris has only one current-season game, so its efficiency sample is extremely thin.
- Game total points under 47−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Tempo inputs are noisy but do not show a durable high-possession profile: Buffalo pace readings were 2.60, 14.47, and 3.91 seconds per play; RMU's was 2.91.
- Personnel gate cleared: Jason Wright led Buffalo's latest passing-attack row with 25 attempts, while Carson Haggard led RMU with 28; both are listed as starters in current game coverage.
- Most likely loss: Buffalo's talent edge creates short fields and a lopsided scoring burst against RMU's +0.33 defensive EPA per play in its lone current row.
Questions
Who won Robert Morris vs. Buffalo?
Buffalo won 31-28 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.