Oklahoma vs. Georgia: Final Score & Model Picks

FinalSanford Stadium

Oklahoma2-1

13–41Final

Georgia3-0

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
OU	0	0	6	7	13
UGA	7	21	3	10	41

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over total 44 52¢

Why Drift likes it: Power rating is 53.6% over from current EPA, success-rate, explosive-rate and scoring inputs.

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 17-9 on this game · +24% return

Oklahoma Sooners to winLong shot3 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 18¢ on Kalshi
3 modelsSaturday Board, Resting Money +1
Why 3 models like it
Saturday Board
- Most likely loss: Georgia's current +0.55 offensive EPA/play overwhelms Oklahoma's -0.21 defensive EPA/play allowed average.
Resting Money
- The third measure does not corroborate: both sides have 3 book levels.
Long Way Home
- The live ProphetX price has not absorbed the same-outcome sharp reference: +750 is materially longer than Pinnacle's +338 at the same game state.
- Most likely loss: Georgia converts its 7-0 first-quarter lead into a routine win.
Georgia Bulldogs spread −13.53 models agree
+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
3 modelsKickoff Ledger, Saturday Board Pairs +1
Why 3 models like it
Kickoff Ledger
- Georgia averages +0.55 offensive EPA/play, 61.3% success and 22.1% explosive rate; Oklahoma is +0.01, 46.7% and 11.2%.
- Georgia's defense allows -0.12 EPA/play; the efficiency matchup favors a sustained Bulldogs margin.
- Biggest risk: Oklahoma's defense has allowed only 7.7 points per game through three contests, and its strong -0.21 defensive EPA could keep this tight.
Saturday Board Pairs
- 2026 current 3-game sample: Georgia averages +0.55 off EPA/play, 61.3% success, 22.1% explosive plays.
- Oklahoma averages +0.01 off EPA/play, 46.8% success, and 11.9% explosive plays; its defense is strong, but Georgia's two-way profile is superior.
- Oklahoma's current defense averages -0.21 EPA/play allowed; that unit can keep Georgia inside 13.5.
Long Way Home
- Georgia leads Oklahoma 0.55 to 0.01 in 2026 offensive EPA per play through three games.
- Georgia's success rate is 61.3% versus Oklahoma's 46.7%; explosive-play rate is 22.1% versus 11.2%.
- Oklahoma's defense has the better current EPA-allowed figure: -0.21 versus Georgia's -0.12.
Oklahoma Sooners +14.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
Over total 44
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 12% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Power rating is 53.6% over from current EPA, success-rate, explosive-rate and scoring inputs.
- Only three current-season games per team; the power estimate is early-sample and opponent-sensitive.
2-leg parlay
+69%Won
Taken at −144
Short YardageUp 10% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Current three-game EPA profile: Georgia +0.55 offense, .613 success, .221 explosive, 4.49 points/drive versus Oklahoma +0.01, .473, .112, 2.10.
- Georgia grades are 98.9 overall, 94.9 offense and 91.6 defense versus Oklahoma's 79.1 overall and 65.2 offense.
- Current three-game profile: Mississippi State +0.47 offense EPA, .568 success, .187 explosive, 4.05 points/drive versus Missouri's +.119, .450, .144, 3.03.
- Only three current-season games per team; early-season opponent adjustment and explosive rates carry sampling error.
Georgia Bulldogs spread −12.5
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle exact 12.5 rung: Georgia -102 / Oklahoma -111; devigged Georgia probability is 49.0%.
- Tier 2: efficiency convergence favors Georgia, 2026 off EPA/play +0.55 vs Oklahoma +0.01 and success rate .613 vs .473; model mean margin is 13.5 points, with -12.5 below the 14 key number.
- Georgia's current EPA and points-per-drive sample includes large-margin games; garbage-time contamination is flagged, so Tier 1 is withheld.

Show all 22 picks

1Q total under 13.5 pointsFavorite
+52%Won
Taken at 66¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model projects approximately 8, 10 first-quarter points; 13.5 requires a two-score-plus opening.
- Georgia averaged 4.49 points per drive; Oklahoma averaged 2.10 across three 2026 games.
- Pace averaged 32.0 seconds per play for Georgia and 28.6 for Oklahoma, limiting early possessions.
- Only three games per team; Georgia’s points-per-drive sample includes two lesser opponents.
Georgia Bulldogs 1st-half winnerFavorite
+37%Won
Taken at 73¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Georgia averaged 0.55 offensive EPA/play and 0.61 success rate over its last three games.
- Oklahoma averaged 0.01 offensive EPA/play; Georgia’s defense allowed -0.12 defensive EPA/play over the same span.
- Kalshi’s 71¢, 73¢ book is tight, active, and heavily traded; the 72¢ three-way mid-market is a substitute reference.
- Three-game samples came against materially different opponents; opponent-quality adjustment is uncertain.
Game total over 45
+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Over 45 pushes at exactly 45; over 45.5 loses at exactly 45.
- ProphetX over 45 is +113 (46.95¢) versus +119 (45.66¢) on over 45.5; only a 1.29-point implied-price gap.
- A final total of 44 or fewer loses; exactly 45 only refunds stake, not a win.
Oklahoma +14 spread
−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Game total over 43.5
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Georgia Bulldogs spread −15.5
+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Book levels are tied, 3-3; the core thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it pattern qualifies on two of three measures.
- Backing Georgia -15.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; live ProphetX quote is +136.
- Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides have 3 levels.
Georgia −10.5
+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle shows Georgia -12.5 and DraftKings -13.5; ProphetX offers -10.5.
- Georgia averages +0.55 offensive EPA/play, 61.3% success rate and 4.49 points/drive through three games.
- Oklahoma averages +0.01 offensive EPA/play, 47.3% success and 2.10 points/drive; PFF grades favor Georgia 98.9 to 79.1 overall.
- Most likely loss: Georgia wins by exactly 10 or less, allowing an Oklahoma backdoor cover.
Game total points under 44.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- ProphetX team totals center at 43 (Oklahoma 14.5 + Georgia 28.5), one point below this rung.
- Georgia averages 62 plays at 32.0 seconds per play; Oklahoma averages 62 at 28.4, a mixed-tempo matchup rather than two uniformly fast offenses.
- Oklahoma's 0.47 success rate and 0.11 explosive rate across three 2026 games create the clearest scoring constraint; Georgia's defense allows -0.12 EPA/play.
- Georgia's offense averages 0.61 success, 0.22 explosive rate, and 4.49 points per drive; efficient drives can clear 45 alone.
Georgia to winFavorite
+22%Won
Taken at 82¢ on Polymarket US
Skip Bayless TrackerDown 34% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- @RealSkipBayless wrote on 9/26: “I'm not exactly can't-wait for what's about to happen in Athens,” implying a Georgia win.
- Fresh Polymarket US moneyline prices Georgia (the NO side) at 82¢.
- The Oklahoma @ Georgia game is scheduled for 12:30 PM PDT today.
- Skip did not explicitly say “Georgia will win”; the directional read is inferred from a rhetorical post.
Georgia Bulldogs 1H spread over 7.5
+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 1,853 FBS games from 2024-25 produced a full-game margin SD of 14.77; sqrt-half scaling gives 10.44, not 7.38.
- Pinnacle’s Georgia -13.5 full-game spread maps to a 6.75 first-half base mean; current efficiency lifts the projection conservatively to 7.75.
- 2026 through three games: Georgia leads Oklahoma in off EPA/play (.549 vs .008), success rate (.613 vs .467), and explosive rate (.221 vs .112).
- College margin mass is real at 7 (139 of 1,853 games) and 10 (84), making the 7.5 threshold sensitive to discrete outcomes.
Georgia Bulldogs over 28.5 team points
+100%Won
Taken at +100 on BetMGM
Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- +0.76 opponent-adjusted EPA/play: Georgia offense .5489 minus Oklahoma defensive allowance -.2066 across three 2026 games each.
- Only three current-season qualifying games underpin each efficiency side; the partial tier is volatile, and Oklahoma's defensive red-zone sample is six trips.
Rocky Beers over 29.5 receiving yards
+88%Won
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 8 of his last 10 appearances cleared 29.5 yards; average was 51.1.
- He has cleared this number in all 3 Oklahoma games: 34, 94, and 43 yards.
- Matchup-adjusted model: 63% hit probability versus 53.3% implied at FanDuel -114.
- Georgia owns a 91.6 defense grade and 90.0 coverage grade, a major matchup upgrade.
Game total points under 44
−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 2026 current three-game sample: Oklahoma averaged 0.01 EPA/play and 47.3% success; Georgia averaged 0.55 and 61.3%.
- Oklahoma averaged only 0.11 explosive rate and 28.6 seconds/play; Georgia's 0.22 explosive rate is offset by Oklahoma's weaker, slower offense.
- Starting-QB gate cleared: John Mateer led Oklahoma's latest pass-attempt row and Gunner Stockton led Georgia's; both were cross-checked on official team game centers.
- Most likely loss: Georgia's 0.22 current explosive rate creates short fields or multiple long touchdowns, clearing 44 quickly.
1H total over 23.5
+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Blended pace is 30.33 seconds/play; 54.6 first-half plays after an 8% stoppage haircut produce 10.1 projected drives.
- Three-game PROE means: Oklahoma 6.9%, Georgia 9.6%; explosive rates 11.2% and 22.1%; derived script uplift is 24.9%.
- Only three 2026 games per team; Georgia's 4.49 and Oklahoma's 2.10 points-per-drive baselines are opponent-sensitive.
Game total points under 43.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Oklahoma's 2026 offense is only +0.01 EPA/play; its defense is -0.21 EPA/play allowed and its pace is 28.42 seconds/play.
- Georgia's offense is averaging +0.55 EPA/play and could clear the total largely by itself.
Game total under 43.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION, my low-40s projection is below the 43.5 total.
- Oklahoma scored 10 and 14 in its two non-UTEP games; Georgia allowed 3, 20, and 17 in three starts.
- Oklahoma’s 2026 offense is only +0.01 EPA/play; Georgia’s defense is -0.12 EPA/play allowed.
- Most likely loss: Georgia’s +0.55 offensive EPA/play produces early explosive scores.