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FinalJack Trice Stadium
Utah3-0
31–17Final
Iowa State2-1
Score by period
Team1234T
UTAH14100731
ISU037717

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over 47.5 total 50¢

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-4 on this game · +69% return

  1. Utah Utes spread −7.53 models agree
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    3 modelsKickoff Ledger, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Kickoff Ledger
    • Utah averages +0.38 offensive EPA/play versus Iowa State's +0.18.
    • Utah's defense allows -0.21 EPA/play versus Iowa State's -0.11; success-rate edge is 59.8% to 44.5%.
    • Iowa State has home-field advantage, and the lower total makes every possession more valuable.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Utah's 3-game offense leads Iowa State 0.38 to 0.18 EPA/play, with a .598 to .451 success-rate edge.
    • Utah's defense allows -0.21 EPA/play versus Iowa State's -0.11; explosive rate also favors Utah .165 to .125.
    • CFB sample is Partial: only three games, and each team has one FCS opponent in the cited averages.
    Long Way Home
    • Utah’s 2026 offense averages +0.38 EPA/play through three games versus Iowa State’s +0.18.
    • Utah’s success rate is 60.3% versus Iowa State’s 44.5%; explosive-play rate is 16.5% versus 12.5%.
    • Most likely loss: Utah wins but Iowa State’s home-field advantage keeps the margin to seven or fewer.
  2. Game total points under 482 models agree
    0%Push

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsKey Number CFB, Tempo Board
    Why 2 models like it
    Key Number CFB
    • Utah's 2026 defense is -0.21 EPA/play; Iowa State's offense is only +0.18 EPA/play with a 45.1% success rate.
    • The pace inputs are slow: Utah 29.21 and Iowa State 31.47 seconds per play; Utah also has a 2026 PFF defense grade of 82.7.
    • The most likely loss is Utah's offense converting its +0.38 EPA/play and 59.8% success rate into 35-plus points, with Iowa State contributing enough late.
    Tempo Board
    • ProphetX's live team-total rungs are Utah 27.5 plus Iowa State 19.5, a 47-point combined reference below the 48 game rung.
    • Tempo support: current three-game averages are 29.21 seconds/play for Utah and 31.47 for Iowa State; PROE is +0.08 and -0.05.
    • Utah has scored 142 points in three games; one or two early explosives can break the low-possession script.
  3. Over 47.5 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
  4. Iowa State Cyclones spread +7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model margin mean Utah +6.2, SD 16.5: Iowa State +7.5 fair probability 53.1%.
    • Pinnacle 7.5: Utah -7.5 +100 / Iowa State +7.5 -113; devigged Iowa State cover probability 51.5%.
    • Current pace is slow: Utah 29.0 and Iowa State 31.5 seconds per play; fewer possessions support the home dog near the 7 key number.
    • Utah's current offense is +0.38 EPA/play versus Iowa State's +0.18; clean explosive plays can produce an 8+ point road win.
  5. Utah Utes spread −8.5
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    RnjDown 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1.0-point sportsbook line range: Utah -7.5 to -8.5.
    • Matchup EPA differential favors Utah by approximately +0.20 EPA/play.
    • Utah recent success rate 58.5% versus Iowa State 44.2%, a +14.4-point margin.
    • Iowa State's recent defense grade is materially stronger than Utah's.
  6. Game total under 47.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Iowa State's offense has averaged 0.18 EPA/play and 35.3 points; Utah's defense allows -0.21 EPA/play.
    • Ames forecast: 90% showers, southeast wind 10-13 mph with gusts to 22 mph at kickoff.
    • Both teams average roughly 29-31 seconds per play, limiting the pace case for an over.
    • Utah's offense averages 0.38 EPA/play and can score efficiently even in poor conditions.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Utah Utes spread −9
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah's defense allows -0.21 EPA/play across three games versus Iowa State's -0.11; the matchup supports a margin beyond the market's -7.5 sharp reference.
    • The current efficiency sample is only three regular-season games per team.
  2. Utah Utes 1st-half winnerFavorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3-game script profile: Utah averages 72.3 plays at 29.0 seconds per play; Iowa State averages 55.7 at 31.5.
    • Utah's +8.2% PROE and 60.3% success rate materially exceed Iowa State's -4.7% and 44.5%.
    • Utah averages 3.91 points per drive versus Iowa State's 2.57; the opening-script efficiency gap favors Utah.
    • Only three 2026 games feed the efficiency averages; opponent-quality adjustment is limited.
  3. Under 48.5 total points (exactly 48 wins; no push)
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX under 48.5 is 55.75¢ (-126) versus under 48 at 54.13¢ (-118), only a 1.62¢ gap.
    • A total of 49 or more loses; there is no push at 48.5, and overtime scoring counts toward the final total under standard full-game grading.
  4. Iowa State Cyclones +7.5 spread (exact 7-point loss wins; no push)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX Iowa State +7.5 is 50.25¢ (-101) versus +7 at 47.39¢ (+111), only a 2.86¢ gap.
    • Utah wins by 8+ and the contract loses; there is no push protection at +7.5.
  5. Utah Utes spread −8
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are Utah 3 versus Iowa State 3: the count is tied, but the thin-at-quote and deep-in-total measures agree.
    • No independent sharp reference or projection model; venue self-reference can reflect stale, correlated, or strategic orders.
  6. Wayshawn Parker first touchdown scorerLong shot
    +475%Won

    Taken at +475 on DraftKings

    CFB Top-25 First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Parker leads Utah with 32 carries and has 6 total touchdowns through three games.
    • Utah averages 0.32 offensive EPA/play, 0.56 success rate, and 3.60 points/drive over the latest five-game window.
    • Utah is the current AP No. 15 team, favored by 7.5 with a 47.5 total; Parker's 10+ carries in every 2026 game supports early-touch access.
    • Iowa State's defense is graded 90.8 in run defense and 89.3 in coverage, a difficult matchup despite Utah's efficiency edge.
  7. Utah Utes 1H spread NO over 9.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,327 completed CFB games produce margin SD 15.85; sqrt-half scaling gives 1H SD 11.21.
    • Utah’s three-game 2026 profile leads Iowa State in EPA/play (.382, .178), success (.598, .451), explosive rate (.165, .125), and PPD (3.91, 2.57).
    • Pinnacle’s full-game Utah -7.5 supports the scaled +4.2 first-half mean; college margin mass is 3, 7, and 10, not imported NFL keys.
    • Only three 2026 games per team; opponent adjustment and the mean projection are fragile.
  8. Utah Utes over 27.5 team points
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +0.33 EPA/play delta: Utah offense .2835 minus Iowa State defensive allowance -.0482 across two current-season FBS games each.
    • Pass rate 49.8% and PROE +12.5% support a more possession-friendly Utah offense despite the slow matchup clocks.
    • Only two current-season FBS games underpin each efficiency side after excluding Utah-Idaho and Iowa State-SEMO; partial coverage is volatile.
  9. Aiden Flora under 79.5 rushing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated 64% hit probability versus FanDuel -114 implied 53.3%, a 10.7-point value gap.
    • Utah allowed 75 rushing yards per game across its first three 2026 games: 106, 61, and 58.
    • Exact starting-role confirmation is not separately published, though recent usage and the active designation support rotation status.
  10. 1H total under 24.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game total is 47.0, scaled with possession data rather than halved.
    • Prior actual drives: Utah 36 in three games (12.00/game); Iowa State 35 (11.67/game), or 23.67 combined.
    • NWS forecast: 50% showers and gusts to 22 mph; an 8% drive haircut gives 10.89 first-half drives.
    • Only a 1.1-point model cushion; this is LEAN, not RECOMMENDED.
  11. Game total over 48
    0%Push

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • A simple three-game offense/defense blend projects 50.8 points, 2.8 above the 48-point rung.
    • Utah averaged 47.3 points and 0.38 offensive EPA/play through three games.
    • Iowa State averaged 35.3 points; its last three game totals were 48, 29, and 62.
    • Only three games per team; opponent-strength adjustment is limited.

Questions

Who won Utah vs. Iowa State?

Utah won 31-17 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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