FinalAggie Memorial Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNM | 14 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 42 |
| NMSU | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
Top model pick, graded
WonNew Mexico Lobos −11.5 −110
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B): qualifying edge with positive expected value.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-3 on this game · +2% return
- New Mexico Lobos −11.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B): qualifying edge with positive expected value.
- Predictor projects New Mexico by 15.1 points, 3.6 points beyond the 11.5 spread (31% cushion).
- New Mexico covered 6 of its last 10 DK closing spreads (60%), including 4 of its last 5.
- Recent ATS sample is only 10 games and includes a 2025 season transition.
- New Mexico Lobos 1st-half winner+41%Won
Taken at 71¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- New Mexico's three-game average points per drive is 2.91 versus New Mexico State's 2.28.
- EPA matchup: New Mexico offense plus Aggies defensive allowance is +0.31; the reverse matchup is -0.21.
- Only three 2026 games supply the recent-data sample; opponent-quality adjustment is limited.
- New Mexico State +8.5 spread−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- +8.5 is a half-point, so it cannot push; an 8-point New Mexico win still wins for New Mexico State +8.5.
- Adjacent ProphetX +8 pushes on an exact 8-point New Mexico win; the +8.5 quote is 43.67¢ (+129) versus 44.05¢ (+127) for +8.
- The price comparison is ProphetX venue self-reference, not an independent sharp-book reference; the quote can move or disappear.
- Game total over 46.5+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days - Game total under 48−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- under 48 pushes at exactly 48; under 47.5 loses on that same exact total.
- ProphetX under 47.5 is 50.50¢; under 48 is 51.92¢.
- Under 48 loses on 49 or more; a late touchdown creates full loss rather than a push.
- New Mexico −10.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- New Mexico defense: -0.34 EPA/play through three games; New Mexico State defense: +0.18.
- 2026 point differential is +28.7/game for New Mexico versus +3.3 for New Mexico State.
- Pinnacle posts New Mexico -10.5 at -110; ProphetX improves that same number to -105.
- Most likely loss: New Mexico State's home-rivalry script keeps the margin at 10 or fewer.
Show all 7 picks
- Game total points under 47−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX's main total is 48.5, while sportsbook references sit at 47.5, 48.
- New Mexico State team total 17.5 plus New Mexico team total 30.5 sums to 48; the under-47 alternate offers a better projection cushion than the thin main rung.
- New Mexico averaged 38 points per game through three games, while New Mexico State's defense allowed positive 0.18 EPA/play.
Questions
Who won New Mexico vs. New Mexico State?
New Mexico won 42-18 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.