UConn vs. Miami (OH): Final Score & Model Picks

FinalYager Stadium

UConn2-1

21–24Final

Miami (OH)1-2

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
CONN	14	0	7	0	21
M-OH	0	14	7	3	24

Top model pick, graded

Won

UConn Huskies +3.5 −115

Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: UConn season offense is +0.18 EPA/play; Miami defense allows +0.19 EPA/play.

Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 1-7 on this game · −77% return

UConn Huskies to win3 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US
3 modelsCFB Heater, D1 Winner +1
Why 3 models like it
CFB Heater
- Polymarket US moneyline is open, quoted, and UConn YES costs 44.5¢.
D1 Winner
- Efficiency family: UConn's 2026 per-play defense allowed 0.01 EPA versus Miami's 0.19; lower is better.
- QB family: Kalieb Osborne has 635 passing yards, 6 TDs and 1 INT through three games; he is the named UConn starter.
- Miami quarterback David McComb has 808 passing yards and five TDs; his explosive passing can erase the defensive gap.
Picks With Pink Grading System
- UConn is 7-3 in its last 10 completed games; Miami (OH) is 4-6.
- UConn's recent offense leads this matchup in EPA/play, 0.22 to 0.02.
- The predictor edge is thinly supported by only three 2026 games per team and projects a near coin flip.
Kalieb Osborne first touchdown scorerLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at +1000 on DraftKings
CFB Top-25 First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 31 carries, 152 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs through three games; clear dual-threat scoring role.
- UConn averages 2.81 points per drive and +0.18 offensive EPA/play over its last three.
- Miami's defense allows +0.19 EPA/play in the same current-season window; matchup supports UConn scoring access.
- UConn uses a real backfield committee, while passing touchdowns can go to several receivers.
UConn Huskies +3.5
+87%Won
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- UConn season offense is +0.18 EPA/play; Miami defense allows +0.19 EPA/play.
- Miami offense is +0.16 EPA/play, while UConn allows only +0.01 defensive EPA/play.
- Blue Chip’s fair spread is Miami -1.2 versus the posted Miami -3.5: 2.3 points toward UConn.
- The efficiency sample is only three games per team, so opponent-adjustment uncertainty is substantial.
UConn Huskies 1st-half winner
−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- UConn's last three offensive EPA/play averaged +0.18 versus Miami (OH)'s +0.16.
- UConn's defensive EPA/play allowed averaged +0.01; Miami (OH)'s averaged +0.19.
- UConn averaged a .484 offensive success rate versus Miami (OH)'s .464 across three 2026 games.
- Miami (OH) has home field and the broader moneyline market favors the RedHawks.
UConn Huskies wins 1H by over 2.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 2023-25 FBS signed-margin SD is 21.96; square-root half-game scaling gives a 15.53 first-half SD.
- Pinnacle full-game Miami -3 scales to a +1.5 Miami first-half mean.
- Key-number mass is college-specific: home margins +3/-3 occurred 146/126 times; this rung sits at the integer 3 threshold. LEAN only; no RECOMMENDED claim.
- Team sample is only three games: UConn offensive EPA ranges from -0.30 to +0.52; Miami ranges from -0.05 to +0.51.
Miami (OH) RedHawks over 27.5 team points
−100%Lost
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- +0.15 EPA/play delta: Miami offense .1582 minus UConn defensive allowance .0119 across three 2026 games each.
- Miami averages 46.4% success and 18.0% explosive plays, supporting repeatable scoring production.
- Miami's +7.5% PROE and 49.0% pass rate support a possession-friendly offensive profile.
- Only three current-season qualifying games support each efficiency side; PARTIAL coverage leaves meaningful model variance.