FinalWallace Wade Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WILL | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| DUKE | 14 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 62 |
Top model pick, graded
WonDuke Blue Devils spread −43 52¢
Why Key Number CFB likes it: Duke's 2026 offense is +0.19 EPA/play and defense allows -0.13 EPA/play; the Blue Devils are 3-0, 83-37.
Key Number CFBDown 7% this season · 668 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-5 on this game · −45% return
- Game total under 63.5−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsHouse Rules, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
House Rules- Under 63.5 wins at 63 or fewer; it has no push.
- At exactly 63, this leg wins; at 64 or more it loses, while the adjacent whole rung would push at 63.
Long Way Home- current-form blend projects approximately 50.9 total points versus the 63.5 contract.
- William & Mary scored 26.0 and allowed 35.75 per game across four official pregame results.
- Duke can create a short-field avalanche; 35.75 points allowed by William & Mary is the clearest over path.
- Duke Blue Devils spread −43+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Saturday Board PairsWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- Duke's 2026 offense is +0.19 EPA/play and defense allows -0.13 EPA/play; the Blue Devils are 3-0, 83-37.
- Latest 2026 PFF card: Duke 83.3 overall versus William & Mary's 68.5; W&M allowed 52 and 44 in its last two losses.
- Most likely loss: Duke leads but stalls at 42 or less after second-unit snaps and a late score fails to arrive.
Saturday Board Pairs- Duke's PFF team grade is 83.3 versus William & Mary's 68.5; the largest gap is pass block, 82.4 to 46.1.
- Duke's defense allowed 12.3 points per game through three contests; W&M has allowed 35.75 per game through four.
- W&M's current starter Winston Watkins is confirmed by the official 9/23 preview, but his current box sample is not in the warehouse.
- Game total under 62.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Duke: +0.16 offensive EPA/play, 46.5% success rate, and -0.09 defensive EPA/play allowed.
- William & Mary averages 336.3 yards and 26.0 points, but allows 281.3 rushing yards and 35.75 points per game.
- Both teams last played September 19; same-day preview confirms Walker Eget and Winston Watkins as starting quarterbacks.
- Duke’s rushing mismatch can create short fields and explosive scores before the clock matters.
- William & Mary Tribe wins 1H by over 2.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 4¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's full-game Duke -44.5 scales to a +22.25 Duke halftime mean.
- 2,327 completed 2024, 26 games produce signed-margin SD 22.95; sqrt-half scaling gives 16.23, not 11.48.
- PROJECTION at the exact 2.5 rung: W&M 1H lead probability is 6.4%; initial raw Kalshi 0.05 fraction was 5¢, then the matcher repriced it at 4¢.
- Current W&M advanced pace and points-per-drive rows are absent; the matchup mean is therefore line-anchored without weather adjustment.
- William & Mary Tribe spread +43.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Duke's 2026 margins are +14, +4, and +28; +43.5 is 15.5 points above its largest win.
- William & Mary's two 2026 losses were by 24 and 25; this cushion is 18.5 points above its larger defeat.
- William & Mary scored 20 and 27 in those losses, reducing the chance of a complete offensive zero.
- Duke is at home and William & Mary's defense allowed 44 and 52 points in its last two games.
Questions
Who won William & Mary vs. Duke?
Duke won 62-7 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.