Get app
FinalMichigan Stadium
Iowa3-0
20–19Final
Michigan3-0
Score by period
Team1234T
IOWA7001320
MICH733619

Top model pick, graded

Won

Iowa Hawkeyes spread +5.5 51¢

Why ProphetX CFB Lines likes it: Pinnacle same rung: Iowa +5.5 -110 / Michigan -5.5 -102; devigged Iowa probability is 50.9%.

ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% this season · 286 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 13-11 on this game · +14% return

  1. Iowa Hawkeyes spread +53 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFB +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • game 2026 sample: Iowa off EPA/play +0.18 vs Michigan +0.13; success rate .513 vs .462.
    • Iowa’s defense allowed -0.31 EPA/play versus Michigan’s -0.04; Iowa also leads explosive rate .158 to .107.
    • Three-game sample is thin; Iowa’s EPA average is boosted by a 0.58 mark against Northern Iowa.
    Key Number CFB
    • Iowa's 2026 EPA profile: +0.18 offense and -0.31 defense; Michigan posts +0.13 and -0.04.
    • PFF 2026 card favors Iowa overall, 95.2 to 91.9, with Iowa's defense graded 92.4.
    • Michigan home field and its -200 moneyline create a credible six-point-or-more win path against +5.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Iowa's FBS-only defense allowed -0.26 EPA/play through two games, versus Michigan's -0.04 through three.
    • Iowa's FBS success rate is .481; Michigan's is .462, while the CFB predictor projects only a 5.30-point Michigan margin.
    • Partial-tier sample: Iowa has only two FBS games after excluding FCS opponent Northern Iowa.
  2. Game total points under 39.52 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFB
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • 3-game 2026 sample has Iowa defense at -0.30 EPA/play allowed versus Michigan offense at +0.14.
    • Pace read: Iowa averages 30.25 seconds/play and Michigan 28.67; PROE is only +0.09 and +0.04.
    • Most likely loss: Michigan's home offense and Iowa's +0.18 offensive EPA/play create enough efficient drives to reach 40+.
    Key Number CFB
    • Iowa defense is -0.30 EPA/play; Michigan defense is -0.04, with tempos of 30.25 and 28.67 seconds/play.
    • Iowa has allowed 13 points through three 2026 games; official/box checks confirm Hank Brown and Bryce Underwood at quarterback.
    • Most likely loss: Michigan's offense creates an early explosive score and turns 40 into a narrow over.
  3. Bryce Underwood first touchdown scorerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +550 on DraftKings

    CFB Top-25 First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 19% model estimate vs 15.4% implied by +550; fair price +426.
    • 33 carries and 2 rushing touchdowns through three games; Michigan’s first touchdown in 2 of 3.
    • Goal-line rushing path is verified: one-yard touchdowns against Oklahoma and Western Michigan.
    • Only three games inform the first-touchdown sample; 2-of-3 is highly unstable.
  4. Iowa Hawkeyes spread +5.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle same rung: Iowa +5.5 -110 / Michigan -5.5 -102; devigged Iowa probability is 50.9%.
    • Iowa's defense averages -0.30 EPA/play allowed versus Michigan's -0.04; that efficiency gap supports a contained margin.
    • Iowa averages 2.79 points/drive versus Michigan's 2.35 through three current-season games; Hank Brown and Bryce Underwood are confirmed starters.
    • Michigan's home field and Underwood's explosive-play ability can turn a close game into a six-point margin.
  5. Hank Brown under 155.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8 of Brown's last 10 recorded appearances stayed below 155.5 passing yards.
    • Michigan carries a 91.2 defensive grade; Iowa's recent pass rate is only 38.7%.
    • Only three current-season starts; one of those cleared the line with 191 yards.
  6. Game total under 38.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Iowa defense allows -0.30 EPA/play; Michigan offense is only +0.05 EPA/play against Oklahoma-level competition.
    • Michigan defense allows -0.04 EPA/play; Iowa's offense was -0.06 EPA/play against Iowa State.
    • Both teams last played September 19, giving each seven days of rest; no rest edge toward a faster game.
    • Iowa's three-game offense averages a strong 0.52 success rate and 0.16 explosive-play rate.
Show all 21 picks
  1. Game total over 39.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B): clears the 70 fire threshold.
    • L10 aggregate: 12 of 20 recent team-game totals cleared 39.5 (60%); L5 aggregate also 60%.
    • Projected total 45.3 versus the 39.5 line: 14.6% projection edge.
    • 2026 season sample is only 3 games per team; combined over rate is just 50%.
  2. Iowa Hawkeyes 1st-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Iowa’s last three team-game averages: +0.18 EPA/play, 51.8% success, 2.79 points/drive.
    • Iowa’s defense allowed -0.30 EPA/play versus Michigan’s -0.04, favoring Iowa’s opening-script matchup.
    • Iowa’s estimated 1H win probability is 38%, versus 33% after devigging Kalshi’s three-way ladder.
    • Michigan is at home, and its faster recent pace can create extra early possessions.
  3. 1Q total over 10.5 pointsLong shot
    +245%Won

    Taken at 29¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model center is roughly 12.2 first-quarter points from recent first-half scoring inputs.
    • Michigan's 3-game offense averaged 2.35 points per drive; Iowa averaged 2.79.
    • Recent pace averaged 28.7 seconds/play for Michigan and 30.3 for Iowa, supporting roughly five opening drives each.
    • Only three 2026 games per team; Iowa's 4.31 PPD against Northern Iowa and Michigan's 4.09 against UTEP inflate the samples.
  4. Game total under 45Favorite
    +52%Won

    Taken at 66¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 45 pushes/refunds at exactly 45; under 44.5 loses and under 45.5 wins at 45.
    • ProphetX prices under 45 at 66.22c versus 64.54c at 44.5 and 67.74c at 45.5.
    • The under loses on 46 or more total points; only the exact-45 outcome pushes.
  5. Iowa +7.5 spread (no push; wins on an exact 7-point loss)
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • the exact contract is Iowa +7.5 spread; leg matches.
    • ProphetX charges 61.54¢ (-160) for Iowa +7.5 versus 59.02¢ (-144) for Iowa +7: only a 2.52-point premium.
  6. Michigan Wolverines spread −5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional coherence check: backing Michigan, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count ties 3-3, so the third measure does not corroborate the Michigan read.
  7. Game total points under 40
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX's 40-point full-game rung sits above its Iowa 16.5 plus Michigan 22.5 team-total sum of 39.
    • 2026 sample is 3 games per team; average pace is 30.25 seconds/play for Iowa and 28.67 for Michigan.
    • Iowa's defense has allowed -0.31 EPA/play and Michigan's -0.04; PFF defense grades are 92.4 and 91.2.
    • Most likely loss: Michigan hits explosive plays or creates short fields, pushing the total past 40.
  8. Game total under 39.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Iowa's FBS-only defense allowed -0.26 EPA/play across 2 games; Michigan's offense is +0.14 across 3.
    • Iowa's FBS-only offense is -0.01 EPA/play against FBS opponents; Michigan's defense allows -0.04 EPA/play.
    • Combined explosive rates are modest: Iowa 9.6% FBS-only and Michigan 10.7%; pace is nearly identical at 28.9 and 28.7 seconds/play.
    • Iowa's FBS-only sample is only 2 games, so this is Partial-tier rather than Full-tier.
  9. Iowa Hawkeyes +5.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Long WeekDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Iowa's defense has allowed -0.30 EPA/play versus Michigan's -0.04 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Iowa also leads the season profile in success rate, 51.8% to 46.1%, and explosive rate, 15.8% to 10.7%.
    • Iowa held Iowa State to 13 points; Michigan's offense scored only 17 against Oklahoma, a useful quality-opponent check.
    • Iowa's first road game and Michigan's home field are meaningful schedule disadvantages.
  10. Iowa Hawkeyes–Michigan Wolverines total under 38.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    Long WeekDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Iowa's recent defense allows -0.08 EPA/play; Michigan's recent offense produces only 0.07.
    • Iowa averages 32.28 seconds per offensive play and passes on 38.7% of plays, supporting a slower game.
    • Recent quality-game results were Iowa 16-13 over Iowa State and Michigan 17-10 over Oklahoma.
    • Iowa and Michigan each averaged over 40 total points across their first three games.
  11. Michigan Wolverines 1H spread over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's independent full-game Michigan -5.5 anchors a +2.75 first-half mean; sunny conditions and roughly 7 mph wind imply no possession cut.
    • Own 2022-25 regular-season sample: 3,483 games, empirical margin SD 14.71; sqrt-half scaling gives a 10.40 first-half SD, not a naive 7.35.
    • Normal(+2.75, 10.40) gives 47.1% for Michigan to clear 3.5; 3 is college's largest observed margin mass (347 games), making 3.5 the relevant just-past-key rung.
    • Only three 2026 games inform the team projection; Iowa's defensive EPA allowed is -0.31 versus Michigan's -0.03, so matchup adjustment is uncertain.
  12. Bryce Underwood under 34.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6 of Underwood's last 10 recorded appearances stayed below 34.5 rushing yards.
    • Iowa's 2026 defense allowed -0.30 EPA per play on average through three games.
    • Four of the last 10 appearances cleared the line, including 87 rushing yards two weeks ago.
  13. Game 1H total over 19.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Weeks 1, 3: Iowa averaged 30.25 sec/play and 12.33 drives; Michigan 28.46 sec/play and 10.67 drives; blended pace is 29.36 sec/play and about 11.5 first-half drives.
    • Points-per-drive baseline: Iowa 2.79, Michigan 2.35; three-game combined PROE is +6.3 percentage points and explosive rate averages 13.3%.
    • Projected 20.9 is only 1.4 points above 19.5; one empty red-zone trip or a long Iowa possession breaks the edge.
  14. Game total under 38.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Iowa scored 16 against Iowa State and Michigan scored 17 against Oklahoma, supporting a low-scoring competitive script.
    • Iowa's first-three-game defensive EPA allowed was -0.30, while Michigan's was -0.04; the matchup points toward Iowa suppressing Michigan's offense.
    • ProphetX price is +116 American, 46.3¢ claim price, with three book levels; the under is individually priced and bettable.
    • The 38.5 line is below the broader 40.5 reference, so 39 points loses despite a generally low-scoring read.
  15. Iowa Hawkeyes to win
    +194%Won

    Taken at 34¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Iowa has posted -0.31 defensive EPA/play through three games; opponents scored 0, 13, and 0 points.
    • Michigan's offense has only a 10.7% explosive-play rate through three games, with 13 and 17 points before the UTEP game.
    • Three-game sample is thin, and Iowa's schedule includes Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa.

Questions

Who won Iowa vs. Michigan?

Iowa won 20-19 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.