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FinalBen Hill Griffin Stadium
Ole Miss3-0
28–52Final
Florida3-0
Score by period
Team1234T
MISS0615728
FLA107142152

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total points over 57.5 56¢

Why Key Number CFB likes it: 2026 EPA/play favors offense: Florida +0.46 and Ole Miss +0.26; explosive-play rates are .179 and .124, respectively.

Key Number CFBDown 7% this season · 668 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 11-13 on this game · −5% return

  1. Ole Miss Rebels to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +152 on FanDuel

    3 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Ole Miss is 9-1 in its last 10 and 4-1 in its last five; both teams are 3-0 this season.
    • At +152, the model estimate implies approximately +18.1% expected return before fees.
    • Florida owns a 97.0 overall PFF team grade and a 90.8 defensive grade at home.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • CFB predictor gives Ole Miss a 47% win probability versus Florida’s 53%, with only a 1.07-point Florida projected margin.
    • Pinnacle is +154 on Ole Miss; ProphetX improves the underdog price by two cents.
    • The cfb_injury_x_signal lookup returned no current quarterback report; the official game-day page lists Trinidad Chambliss and Aaron Philo but gives no explicit availability note.
    Long Way Home
    • Pinnacle posts Ole Miss +154; ProphetX offers the same side at +156, improving the sharp reference.
    • The exchange's unusually large displayed Ole Miss offer at a genuine long price supplies the venue-specific structural basis for an upset ticket.
    • Order flow can reflect market-making inventory rather than informed probability; the displayed size is not proof the underdog is mispriced.
  2. Florida Gators to win2 models agree
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Saturday Board Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Three-game 2026 efficiency: Florida off EPA .455 vs Ole Miss .262; explosive rate .179 vs .124.
    • Partial coverage, not full: only three current-season games and no verified rest adjustment.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Florida's 3-game 2026 offense averages 0.46 EPA/play, 0.55 success rate and 4.49 points/drive versus Ole Miss at 0.26, 0.54 and 3.45.
    • Florida's explosive-play rate is 0.18 versus Ole Miss's 0.12; both defenses allow similar EPA (+0.07 Florida, +0.07 Ole Miss), isolating the offensive gap.
    • Most likely loss: Chambliss's Ole Miss offense sustains drives through its 0.19 PROE and exploits Florida's positive defensive EPA allowed.
  3. Florida Gators spread −4.52 models agree
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Saturday Board Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Florida's FBS-only offense averages +0.55 EPA/play versus Ole Miss at +0.26; +5.7 explosive-rate points.
    • major books were around Florida -3.5, while ProphetX offers the main -4.5 spread at plus money.
    • Florida's FBS sample is only two games, so this is Partial Tier 2 rather than a full-strength projection.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Florida's 2026 offense averages +0.46 EPA/play versus Ole Miss's +0.26 across three games.
    • Florida's explosive-play rate is 0.18 versus Ole Miss's 0.12, a meaningful current-sample tail advantage.
    • Most likely loss: Ole Miss's pass-heavy offense keeps producing explosives and Florida wins by four or fewer.
  4. Game total points over 57.5High conviction
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 EPA/play favors offense: Florida +0.46 and Ole Miss +0.26; explosive-play rates are .179 and .124, respectively.
    • Both starting QBs are corroborated by last-game pass-attempt leaders and a fresh September 26 matchup report: Aaron Philo and Trinidad Chambliss.
    • Florida's 30.05 seconds per play is slow and can suppress possessions despite its strong offensive efficiency.
  5. Florida Gators spread −3.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  6. Ole Miss Rebels spread over 6.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 24¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Derived margin distribution: Florida by 4.3 mean, 17-point SD; Ole Miss over 6.5 fair probability 26.5%.
    • Florida's current offense leads at 0.46 EPA/play versus Ole Miss's defense allowing 0.07, creating the multi-score loss path.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Jadan Baugh first touchdown scorerLong shot
    +340%Won

    Taken at +340 on DraftKings

    CFB Top-25 First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • AP No. 21 Florida hosts No. 4 Ole Miss; the current Week 4 poll was refreshed at 6:09 AM PDT.
    • Florida's recent offense posts 0.32 EPA/play and 3.76 points per drive; Ole Miss allows +0.10 EPA/play.
    • Baugh leads Florida with 54 carries, 458 yards and 8 rushing TDs; he had 26 carries and 3 TDs last game.
    • A quick Ole Miss passing score bypasses Baugh before Florida's concentrated run game starts.
  2. Ole Miss +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Always winsDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 79% of spread tickets are on Ole Miss +3.5 in the latest pre-kickoff snapshot.
    • Florida -3.5 stayed fixed while FanDuel/Pinnacle prices moved, showing resistance to the public side.
    • Florida still projects as the more likely outright winner; Ole Miss loses the ticket by four or more points.
  3. Ole Miss Rebels spread +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • CFB predictor at 6:04 AM makes Florida only a 1.07-point favorite; +3.5 is a 2.4-point cushion versus that fair line.
    • Florida leads early-season offensive EPA/play .455 to .262, but defensive EPA allowed is nearly even: Florida .072, Ole Miss .070.
    • Both teams last played Sept. 19, giving each seven days of rest; neither has a rest advantage.
    • Florida's stronger .455 offensive EPA/play, .179 explosive rate, and home field can turn the matchup edge into a multi-score win.
  4. 1Q total over 13.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent Q1 scoring averages are Florida 13.3 and Ole Miss 6.7, a 20.0-point combined baseline.
    • Florida averaged 0.46 offensive EPA/play and Ole Miss 0.26 across three 2026 games.
    • Both confirmed QBs led their teams in last-game attempts: Aaron Philo 22, Trinidad Chambliss 48.
    • Only three games per team; Florida's sample includes FAU and Campbell, while Ole Miss faced Charlotte and LSU.
  5. Game 1H total over 27.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Weeks 1, 3: Ole Miss median pace 24.92 seconds/play and Florida median 29.96; the blended 27.44 supports roughly 34 first-half drives/plays share, not a flat half-total.
    • Starting-QB gate clears: Trinidad Chambliss and Aaron Philo led attempts in the latest games, and the September 25 preview identifies both as the expected starters.
    • Only three games inform the drive and first-half scoring sample; early touchdowns and turnovers can overstate the 11.2% uplift.
  6. Ole Miss +1.5 spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ole Miss +1 pushes on a one-point Florida win; +1.5 wins it.
    • ProphetX: Ole Miss +1 is +154 (39.37¢); +1.5 is +150 (40.00¢), only a 0.63-point premium.
    • Historical exact-one mass is all-game CFB, not matchup-specific; Ole Miss, Florida may differ.
  7. Game total over 58
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Over 58 wins at 59+, pushes exactly 58, and loses at 57 or fewer.
    • ProphetX over 58 is 54.75¢ (-121) versus over 58.5 at 53.27¢ (-114), only a 1.48-point gap.
    • A push refunds stake rather than producing profit; the residual pricing gap is modest.
  8. Ole Miss Rebels +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are 3 for Ole Miss and 3 for Florida: neutral corroboration, so the signal qualifies on the thin/deep pairing only.
    • Directional coherence check: backing Ole Miss +2.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not favor Ole Miss (3-3), so this is not a three-measure confirmation.
  9. Deuce Alexander over 5.5 receptions
    +79%Won

    Taken at −126 on FanDuel

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Yards per target fell 22.7 to 8.4 to 5.5, a 76% first-to-last collapse, while target share finished above its opener.
    • Ole Miss ran 60 and 76 plays with 59.7% and 69.9% pass rates; latest PROE was +0.28, supporting a large receiving pie.
    • Most likely loss: Florida controls the script, Ole Miss throws less, and Alexander finishes with five or fewer receptions.
  10. Florida Gators 1H spread NO over 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Florida +1.9 first-half mean with 10.30-point SD (14.57 full-game SD ÷ √2) gives approximately 51% for NO after college +3 mass adjustment.
    • Pinnacle's full-game Florida -3.5 scales to roughly a +1.75 first-half mean, agreeing with the NO side at this rung.
    • the model prices Florida over 2.5 near 49%, below Kalshi's 52¢ YES midpoint; 48¢ NO is a positive but modest projection edge. Band: LEAN.
    • Only three games per team drive the season-to-date inputs; opponent adjustment and SEC matchup effects are thin-sample risks.
  11. Ole Miss Rebels over 27.5 team points
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +0.19 opponent-adjusted EPA/play: Ole Miss offense .2617 minus Florida defensive allowance .0723 across three 2026 games.
    • Pace confirms possessions: Ole Miss averages 17.54 seconds/play and Florida 30.05 seconds/play in the current sample.
    • Only three qualifying 2026 games underpin each efficiency side; PARTIAL coverage remains volatile.
  12. Game total under 62.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • scoreless after Q1 (0-0) on only 15 combined offensive plays; 62.5 still requires 63 points.
    • Live Ole Miss offense: -1.00 EPA/play, 25.0% success and 0.0% explosive rate across four plays.
    • DraftKings also quotes Under 62.5 at -119; ProphetX offers the same line at +105 / 49.26¢ graded contract price.
    • Most likely loss: Florida or Ole Miss produces a second-quarter scoring burst, forcing a high-scoring final three quarters.
  13. Ole Miss Rebels spread +4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ole Miss is 3-0 with a 32-24 win over LSU; Florida's 3-0 margin profile includes 66-21 FAU and 52-3 Campbell.
    • Through three games, defensive EPA allowed is nearly identical: Ole Miss 0.07 versus Florida 0.07.
    • The +4.5 exchange number improves on the sharper Florida -3.5 to -4 market range, cushioning a one-score game.
    • Florida's offense has produced 0.46 EPA/play and 4.48 points per drive, versus Ole Miss at 0.26 and 3.45.
  14. Game total points over 57
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX's same-event team totals are Ole Miss 27.5 plus Florida 31.5, a 59-point reference, 2 points above the game total.
    • 2026 sample, 3 games each: Ole Miss posted .512-.600 success and .095-.145 explosive rates; Florida posted .462-.603 and .128-.235.
    • Ole Miss PROE climbed from .069 to .227 to .286; Florida played 28.0-32.2 seconds per play, supporting enough possessions despite Florida's slower pace.
    • Most likely loss: Florida's slower offense fails to convert against Ole Miss and leaves the combined score below 58.

Questions

Who won Ole Miss vs. Florida?

Florida won 52-28 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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