FinalJoan C. Edwards Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GARD | 14 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 35 |
| MRSH | 10 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 36 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-9 on this game · −100% return
- Game total under 55.5−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- Score-based matchup projection is 49.6 total points, 5.9 below the 55.5 line (10.6% gap).
- Under 55.5 in 6 of 7 2026 team-games at this threshold across both teams.
- Gardner-Webb's latest game reached 64 points, and Marshall's recent defense allowed 31.7 points per game.
Long Way Home- Marshall's three 2026 game totals are 45, 54, and 45, under 55.5 in all three.
- Gardner-Webb's four 2026 game totals are 52, 47, 64, and 55, under 55.5 in three of four.
- Most likely loss: Marshall's mismatch creates 40-plus points and Gardner-Webb contributes enough to reach 56.
- Game total points under 57−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Tempo BoardWhy 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs- Marshall’s 3-game offense averages +0.03 EPA/play and .476 success; recent pace is 27.09, 29.09 seconds/play.
- Gardner-Webb’s lone current charted game was -0.12 EPA/play and .4267 success against Liberty.
- Marshall’s defense allowed +0.19 EPA/play across its three current charted games, creating a path for Gardner-Webb points.
Tempo Board- Tempo sample is modest: Gardner-Webb's two-game recent advanced window is 14.92 seconds/play; Marshall's five-game window is 21.41.
- Both starting quarterbacks were named in Marshall's 9/24 official preview: Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and Cole Pennington.
- LEAN only: Gardner-Webb is an FCS opponent, and its current-season advanced sample has only one charted game; prior-season data is not blended into a precise model.
- Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs under 56.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected 11.8 possessions per side, 23.6 total; pace inputs average 26.14 seconds/play for Gardner-Webb and 28.09 for Marshall.
- Opponent-adjusted PPD projects 24.3 Gardner-Webb points and 29.9 Marshall points: model total 54.2.
- Current explosive rates are modest: Gardner-Webb 0.12; Marshall 0.08 average across three games, supporting a lower upper tail.
- Only one 2026 advanced row for Gardner-Webb and three for Marshall; prior-season coverage is sparse, so the partial-tier estimate is fragile.
- Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs under 53.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 efficiency: Marshall averages +0.03 EPA/play and 47.6% success; Gardner-Webb averages -0.12 and 42.7%.
- Current-season scoring averages are 19.3 for Marshall and 24.3 for Gardner-Webb; team game totals average 51.0 and 48.3.
- Both teams played September 19, creating equal seven-day rest with no material fatigue edge.
- Calm, dry weather is neutral-to-positive for offense rather than an under catalyst.
- Game total under 52.5−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX quoted under 52.5 at +129 (43.67¢) versus under 52 at +119 (45.66¢): the better-settling contract pays more.
- ProphetX can reprice before publication; the claim is tied to the live under-52.5 contract read at 12:12 PM PDT.
- Marshall Thundering Herd spread −28.5−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION (LEAN): Marshall's 2026 offense averages +0.03 EPA/play and 47.6% success across 3 charted games; Gardner-Webb's current chart is -0.12 EPA/play and 42.7% success (1 game).
- Marshall's latest PFF pass-block grade is 69.3 versus Gardner-Webb's 40.4, supporting a favorite-side explosive tail with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson confirmed.
- QB gate cleared: official Marshall pregame material names Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and Cole Pennington; each also led his team's latest completed-game pass attempts.
- LEAN cap: Gardner-Webb is an FCS opponent, and its current advanced sample has only 1 charted game versus the 3-game target.
Show all 7 picks
- Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs to win−100%Lost
Taken at 7¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The predictor's Marshall margin is 14.77 points versus the market's 24.5-point spread, coherently supporting upset-tail value.
- Most likely loss: Marshall controls the game early and removes Gardner-Webb's upset path.
Questions
Who won Gardner-Webb vs. Marshall?
Marshall won 36-35 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.