FinalJordan-Hare Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 3 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 15 |
| AUB | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
Top model pick, graded
WonVanderbilt Commodores spread +11.5 55¢
Why Saturday Board Pairs likes it: Three-game 2026 sample: Vanderbilt's offense posts +0.10 EPA/play and 51.0% success; Auburn is at +0.15 and 48.0%.
Saturday Board PairsDown 4% this season · 567 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 9-8 on this game · +6% return
- Game total points over 54.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFBWhy 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs- Auburn averaged +0.15 EPA/play across 3 current-season games; Vanderbilt's defense allowed +0.10 EPA/play across 3.
- Vanderbilt averaged +0.10 offensive EPA/play against Auburn's +0.09 defensive EPA/play allowed; both offenses cleared 47% success rate.
- Auburn's offense can regress after its 0.26 EPA/play Florida game, while Vanderbilt's 28-second pace can suppress possessions.
Key Number CFB- Most likely loss path: Vanderbilt's slower 27.81-second pace and Auburn's defensive efficiency keep the game at 54 points or fewer.
- Vanderbilt Commodores spread +9.5+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- CFB histogram: absolute margin 10 occurred 455 of 10,845 games (4.2%); the ladder charges more than that broad key-number mass for the extra point.
- Auburn is still the projected winner, but its three margins are +1, +35, -5; Vanderbilt's are +19, +9, +4, keeping the mean near the rung.
- Auburn's efficiency edge can produce a clean double-digit win, making +9.5 lose even if the side is directionally right.
Long Way Home- Auburn's three-game average margin is +10.3; Vanderbilt's is +10.7, so the matchup does not justify a double-digit home-tax assumption.
- Vanderbilt's slower 27.8-second pace versus Auburn's 21.6 compresses possessions and helps the underdog stay within the number.
- Auburn's 14.9% explosive-play rate can create the separation this spread requires.
- Auburn Tigers spread −9.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Over 54.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current PPD: Auburn 2.62, Vanderbilt 2.11; explosive rates 14.9% and 13.3% support the Over.
- Vanderbilt averaged 27.81 seconds per play; stalled drives could reduce combined possessions.
- Vanderbilt Commodores to win−100%Lost
Taken at 24¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Vanderbilt's current success rate is .5104 versus Auburn's .4804 across three 2026 games.
- Auburn's current offense leads in EPA/play (.1474 to .1045) and explosive rate (.1488 to .1336), with home field.
- Vanderbilt Commodores spread +11.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Three-game 2026 sample: Vanderbilt's offense posts +0.10 EPA/play and 51.0% success; Auburn is at +0.15 and 48.0%.
- The efficiency gap is modest relative to 11.5 points: Auburn's offense is +0.04 EPA/play above Vanderbilt's defensive allowance.
- Vanderbilt's 0.13 explosive rate is close to Auburn's 0.15, while Auburn's 21.64-second pace and +13.5% PROE create comeback possessions.
- Auburn's PFF offense grade is 73.9 versus Vanderbilt's 66.0, with a 69.2 pass-block grade versus Vanderbilt's 54.7.
Show all 15 picks
- 1H total under 28.5 points+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Auburn's 3-game average: 78.0 plays, 21.6 seconds/play, 2.62 points per drive.
- Vanderbilt averages 65.3 plays, 27.8 seconds/play, and 2.11 points per drive; slower pace compresses possessions.
- Bottom-up pace and points-per-drive projection is roughly 26 first-half points, below 28.5.
- Only three games per team; opponent quality and rounded points-per-drive inputs are noisy.
- 1H total over 28.5−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- full-game 54.5 scaled through the model gives 29.4 first-half points, not a flat 27.25.
- 71.7 projected first-half plays: (Auburn 78.0 + Vanderbilt 65.33) ÷ 2; approximately 11.0 drives at 6.5 plays per drive.
- Baseline points per drive is 2.36; average PROE 0.12 and explosive rate 0.14 produce a data-derived 13.1% first-half uplift to 2.67.
- Drive count is estimated, not observed: 6.5 plays per drive is an approximation after only three games per team.
- Vanderbilt Commodores @ Auburn Tigers total under 54+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Under 54 pushes at exactly 54; Under 54.5 wins at 54 and cannot push.
- ProphetX quotes Under 54 at +107 versus Under 54.5 at +101, giving the whole-number rung a 6-cent payout improvement despite surrendering 54 as a win.
- Under 54 loses at 55 or more, while Under 54.5 wins at 54; the contracts are not outcome-equivalent.
- Vanderbilt Commodores +10 spread+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Vanderbilt +10 pushes if Auburn wins by exactly 10; Vanderbilt +10.5 has no push.
- ProphetX quotes Vanderbilt +10 at +101 versus Vanderbilt +10.5 at -113, a 11.4-cent price gap in the wrong direction for the less favorable rung.
- The CFB 2014, 25 margin distribution may not fit this matchup's scoring environment.
- Game total under 53.5+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Backing under 53.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; 46.95¢ (+113).
- Venue self-reference provides no independent ticket or handle confirmation.
- Vanderbilt +8.5+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Backing Vanderbilt +8.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; 46.30¢ (+116).
- Venue self-reference provides no independent ticket or handle confirmation.
- Vanderbilt to win−100%Lost
Taken at 23¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Backing Vanderbilt, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; ProphetX quotes +330 American, 23.26¢.
- Venue self-reference provides no independent ticket or handle confirmation.
- Game total points under 56.5+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX's 56.5 full-game line sits 1.5 points above its quoted 33.5 Auburn plus 21.5 Vanderbilt team-total rungs.
- ProphetX's own ladder supports the lower side: 54.5 over is -103, while 55 under is -109 and 56.5 under is -130.
- 2026 sample covers three games per team: Vanderbilt's pace was 33.80, 25.76, 23.87 seconds/play; Auburn's was 21.70, 23.05, 20.16.
- Both teams have scored 98 Vanderbilt and 99 Auburn points through three games, so the under depends on avoiding another shootout.
- Auburn wins 1H by over 7.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 averages: Auburn 2.62 points/drive, 78 plays and 14.9% explosive rate; Vanderbilt 2.11, 65.3 and 13.4%.
- Projected first-half mean is Auburn +5.5; exact 7.5 rung is below 60% Auburn-over after conservative college 7-point mass adjustment.
- Only three 2026 games per team; first-half splits and matchup-specific defensive estimates are thin.
Questions
Who won Vanderbilt vs. Auburn?
Auburn won 21-15 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.