FinalJohn L. Guidry Stadium
Lamar2-1
49–18Final
Nicholls2-2
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAMA | 28 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 49 |
| NICH | 7 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 45.5 (no push; wins at exactly 46; 1.277% historical exact-total mass) 51¢
Why House Rules likes it: Over 45.5 wins at exactly 46; adjacent over 46 pushes at exactly 46.
House RulesDown 3% this season · 1403 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-3 on this game · −20% return
- Game total under 45.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Nicholls managed 28.8% offensive success and 25.2 seconds/play against Sam Houston; both offenses project methodical.
- Starting quarterbacks are listed as Aiden McCown and Ean Rodrigue; Rodrigue has 4 interceptions on 101 attempts.
- Polymarket US offers the under at 51¢; my fair total is 41.5, four points below the 45.5 threshold.
- Nicholls allowed 59 points to Sam Houston and 71 to Kansas State; Lamar could create a one-sided scoring spike.
- Game total over 45.5 (no push; wins at exactly 46; 1.277% historical exact-total mass)+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Over 45.5 wins at exactly 46; adjacent over 46 pushes at exactly 46.
- Below 46, both adjacent overs lose; above 46, both win, the edge is concentrated entirely on exactly 46.
- Lamar Cardinals spread −9 (push at exactly a 9-point Lamar win)+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX prices Lamar -9 at 48.78¢ (+105), versus Lamar -8.5 at 49.50¢ (+102): the push-protected rung is 0.72¢ cheaper.
- Lamar -9 still loses on an 8-point win or any Nicholls win; the asymmetry matters only at exactly 9.
- Nicholls Colonels spread +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days - Game total under 45.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Both 2026 offenses currently rate -0.45 EPA/play: Lamar -0.45 and Nicholls -0.45.
- Lamar has scored 30 points across two games; Nicholls scored 3 against Kansas State and 0 against Sam Houston.
- Nicholls has produced 44 and 31 points in its other two 2026 games, showing meaningful opponent sensitivity.
Questions
Who won Lamar vs. Nicholls?
Lamar won 49-18 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.