FinalAlumni Stadium (DE)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOWS | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| DEL | 10 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 33 |
Top model pick, graded
WonDelaware State Hornets −3 (push at exactly 3) 50¢
Why House Rules likes it: Delaware State -3 pushes on an exact 3-point win; it wins only by 4 or more.
House RulesDown 3% this season · 1403 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-5 on this game · −67% return
- Towson Tigers to win−100%Lost
Taken at +116 on FanDuel
3 modelsD1 Winner, Key Number CFB +1Why 3 models like it
D1 Winner- Towson grades better overall (69.3, 65.6), passing (79.2, 65.3), coverage (62.8, 52.6), and defensive EPA allowed.
- Towson’s opponent-adjusted offense averages +0.11 EPA/play; Delaware State’s charted defense allows +0.62 EPA/play.
- Towson is 0-4 while Delaware State is 2-2 and has home-field advantage.
Key Number CFB- Towson 2026 offense EPA/play is +0.11 vs Delaware State -0.00; defense EPA allowed is +0.29 vs +0.62.
- PFF's latest 2026 card favors Towson overall 69.3, 65.6, passing 79.2, 65.3 and defense 68.3, 60.9.
- Towson is 0-4 while Delaware State is 2-2 and has home field; a close Hornets win is the most likely loss path.
Long Way Home- Towson posted positive offensive EPA/play in both 2026 games: +0.17 and +0.05.
- Delaware State's only 2026 row shows -0.00 offensive EPA/play and +0.62 defensive EPA/play allowed.
- Most likely loss: Delaware State's home advantage and Towson's weak recent scoring profile produce another low-output defeat.
- Delaware State Hornets −3 (push at exactly 3)+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Delaware State -3 pushes on an exact 3-point win; it wins only by 4 or more.
- ProphetX is the only live price source here; the independent odds feed did not list this game and the captured board was empty.
- Towson Tigers spread +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- CFB margin histogram: exact 3-point margins are 978/10,853 (9.0%), versus 7-point margins at 7.9% and 10-point margins at 4.2%.
- Towson +2.5 is +103 (49.26¢); the 5.69-point implied-probability step to +3.5 is below the pooled 3-point mass.
- DraftKings shows Towson +3 at -111; the ProphetX moneyline has Towson +130 and Delaware State -138, consistent with a close game.
- Most likely loss is Delaware State winning by 4 or more at home.
- Towson Tigers spread −3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Towson posted +0.17 EPA/play vs Navy and +0.05 vs South Carolina; Delaware State allowed +0.62 EPA/play vs South Florida.
- Towson's two-game FBS-tested sample is materially stronger than Delaware State's single-game profile, but the market still offers Towson as a sizable spread underdog.
- Directional check: Towson -3.5 agrees with the existing Towson-side game read rather than contradicting it.
- Most likely loss: Delaware State's home edge keeps this within one score despite Towson winning or competing.
Questions
Who won Towson vs. Delaware State?
Delaware State won 33-28 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.