FinalBeaver Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIS | 0 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 24 |
| PSU | 3 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 20 |
Top model pick, graded
WonWisconsin Badgers to win 23¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 7-11 on this game · −12% return
- Penn State Nittany Lions spread −10−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, ProphetX PairsWhy 2 models like it
ProphetX CFB Lines- Current adjusted efficiency favors Penn State: +0.28 offensive EPA/play and -0.26 defensive EPA/play allowed versus Wisconsin +0.27 and +0.14; the 0.40 defensive EPA gap is the load-bearing factor.
- Possession convergence supports the favorite: Penn State averages 68.7 current-season plays and 3.47 points/drive versus Wisconsin's 62.0 and 2.95; Tier 1, with the -10 key-number rung selected for price and size.
- Three current-season games per team require prior-season blending; the model distribution is less stable than a full-season sample.
ProphetX Pairs- Through 3 games, Penn State defense is -0.26 EPA/play versus Wisconsin offense at +0.27 EPA/play.
- Pinnacle also posts -10, but at -105; ProphetX gives the better -101 price.
- Three-game 2026 sample; opponent quality and early-season EPA stability are uncertain.
- Penn State Nittany Lions to win−100%Lost
Taken at −380 on DraftKings
2 modelsD1 Winner, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
D1 Winner- Current three-game per-play profile: Penn State offense +0.28 EPA/play and defense -0.27 allowed versus Wisconsin +0.27 and +0.14.
- Rocco Becht has 751 passing yards, 9 TD and 0 INT; Colton Joseph has 752 yards, 5 TD and 2 INT.
- Penn State's official report lists three CBs and four DEs out, potentially narrowing its defensive advantage.
Long Way Home- DraftKings -380 and Pinnacle -389 both support Penn State; ProphetX is the superior favorite price.
- The projection and reference market agree on the side while ProphetX underprices the win probability relative to the live model.
- Penn State's official report lists 11 players out and three questionable; role impact is not fully quantified.
- Game total points under 440%Push
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFBWhy 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs- Current three-game sample: Penn State allows -0.26 EPA/play; Wisconsin produces +0.27 EPA/play, creating a strong resistance matchup.
- Wisconsin allows +0.14 defensive EPA/play while Penn State produces +0.28 offensively; only Penn State has the favorable defensive matchup.
- Both offenses average a combined 13.5% explosive-play rate; one or two chunk scores can break 44.
Key Number CFB- Penn State's 2026 defense allows -0.26 EPA/play through three games; Wisconsin allows +0.14, supporting a lower scoring center.
- Official game information and prior-game passing leaders confirm Colton Joseph and Rocco Becht as the active quarterbacks.
- Penn State and Wisconsin both average above +0.27 offensive EPA/play in the three-game 2026 sample.
- Wisconsin Badgers to win+335%Won
Taken at 23¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Over 43.5 total+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current combined points-per-drive proxy is 6.42 across three games; possession and explosive-play rates support scoring above 43.5 after conservative blowout discounts.
- Three-game samples are dominated by blowouts; garbage-time scoring may still inflate the efficiency and possession inputs despite discounts.
- Penn State Nittany Lions NO over 6.5 first-half spread−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's full-game Penn State spread is -10; half-game scaling gives a first-half mean of +4.8 Penn State points.
- 3,660 completed 2022-25 CFB games produced an empirical margin SD of 14.61; sqrt(2) scaling gives SD_1H 10.33, not 7.31.
- That mean/SD distribution gives 56.5% for Penn State to finish at 6.5 points or fewer; the 6.5 rung is adjacent to the college 7-point mass (293 observations).
- The first-half distribution is a normal approximation from full-game margins; there is no direct first-half margin sample here.
Show all 17 picks
- Rocco Becht over 209.5 passing yards−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model: 65% hit probability versus FanDuel -114 implied 53.3%, an 11.7-point value margin.
- Becht has passed for 271, 268, and 212 yards in his three 2026 appearances: 3-for-3 over 209.5.
- His 250.3-yard recent average is 40.8 yards above the posted number.
- Only three current-season starts inform the form estimate; the sample is not a full ten games.
- Rocco Becht over 1.5 passing touchdowns−100%Lost
Taken at +122 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model: 62% hit probability versus FanDuel +122 implied 45.0%, clearing the four-point value gate.
- Becht has thrown 4, 3, and 2 touchdowns in 2026: 3-for-3 over this line.
- Penn State averages 2.76 points per drive with +0.19 offensive EPA per play over its last 10.
- Three-game sample is thin; touchdown rates regress sharply against stronger opponents.
- Penn State Nittany Lions −9.5−100%Lost
Taken at −120 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Penn State: +0.28 offensive EPA/play and -0.27 defensive EPA/play allowed through three games.
- Wisconsin's +0.27 offensive EPA/play meets a Penn State defense allowing -0.27; the matchup gap favors PSU.
- Rocco Becht and Colton Joseph are the identified starters; both teams have seven days' rest.
- Wisconsin's offense improved to +0.42 EPA/play and 0.56 success rate last week.
- Penn State Nittany Lions spread −11.5−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 3-game current sample: Penn State offense +0.28 EPA/play and Wisconsin defense allows +0.14 EPA/play.
- 3-game current sample: Wisconsin offense +0.27 EPA/play meets Penn State defense at -0.27 EPA/play allowed.
- PFF 2026 card confirms the direction: Penn State offense 87.2 and passing 90.7 versus Wisconsin 76.1 and 61.7.
- Most likely loss: Wisconsin quarterback Colton Joseph repeats his latest 362-yard, 3-touchdown outing and creates a backdoor cover.
- Game total over 43.5+87%Won
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (Grade B); model total 50.5 versus 43.5, a 16.1% projection gap.
- Both teams cleared 43.5 in all six 2026 games: Wisconsin totals 64, 45, 54; Penn State totals 68, 36, 45.
- 2026 offense has been efficient: Wisconsin averaged 0.27 EPA/play across three games and Penn State 0.28.
- Wisconsin's 2026 scoring includes a 13-point Notre Dame game, and Penn State's recent 10-game defensive EPA allowed is -0.00.
- Game 1H total over 23.5+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- QB gate cleared: Rocco Becht and Colton Joseph led attempts in all three games; a September 26 preview names both starters.
- Three-game window: valid pace 26.71 seconds/play PSU, 27.00 Wisconsin median; average offense 68.7 and 62.0 plays.
- defense-adjusted base 26.16, PROE/explosive first-half adjustment yields 26.50; conservative fair probability 58% over.
- Only three games feed every efficiency and drive estimate; opponent-quality adjustment is noisy.
- Wisconsin Badgers +10 spread+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Wisconsin +10 returns the stake on an exact 10-point Penn State win; it wins at 9 or fewer and loses at 11+.
- A push returns stake rather than profit, and the exchange quote may disappear despite the displayed depth.
- Game total over 44.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- book_levels: over 3 versus under 3; two measures agree, with substantial raw stake on the thin side.
- Directional check: backing over 44.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- book_levels tie 3-3, so the third measure does not corroborate the read.
- Wisconsin Badgers +10.5 spread+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- book_levels: Wisconsin 3 versus Penn State 3; two measures agree, and the thin side has substantial quoted size.
- Directional check: backing Wisconsin +10.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- book_levels tie 3-3, so the third measure does not corroborate the read.
- Game total under 42−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PSU has allowed -0.26 defensive EPA/play across three 2026 games; Wisconsin's offense has averaged 0.25 EPA/play.
- The matchup projects below the 43.5, 44 market range: PSU's defense is the strongest unit in the matchup, while Wisconsin's offense has only one game above 0.27 EPA/play.
- Pinnacle's 44-point total prices the under at -111; it supports the low-scoring direction, not this exact rung.
- Penn State scored 45 and 55 in two of three games, and Wisconsin has allowed 41+ twice.
- Game total points under 46.5+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Penn State's 91.4 PFF defense and 92.5 coverage grade face a Wisconsin offense graded 76.1 overall and 61.7 passing.
- Wisconsin's three-game sample includes FCS Western Illinois, triggering the brief's opponent-quality cap.
- Penn State's pace inputs are inconsistent, 1.20, 25.65 and 3.73 seconds per play, so the possession-count read is noisy.
Questions
Who won Wisconsin vs. Penn State?
Wisconsin won 24-20 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.