FinalUNI-Dome
Illinois State4-0
21–28Final
Northern Iowa1-2
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
| NORT | 7 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 28 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 59.5 59¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-4 on this game · −66% return
- Game total under 59.5+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Game total over 55.5−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent-score blend projects 60.6 points (41.4 Illinois State, 19.2 Northern Iowa) versus 55.5: 9.2% line edge.
- Illinois State averages 48.5 scored and 11.75 allowed across four 2026 games.
- Northern Iowa averages 26.7 scored and 34.3 allowed across three 2026 games.
- Charted recent EPA is negative for both offenses: -0.12 Illinois State and -0.36 Northern Iowa.
- Game total over 59−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX prices over 59 at +125 (44.44c) versus over 59.5 at +123 (44.84c): nearly identical price despite the whole-number push option.
- The whole-number option only pushes at 59; totals below 59 lose and totals above 59 win normally.
- Illinois State Redbirds spread −16.5−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- CFB histogram: exact 17-point margins are 371 of 10,868 games (3.4%); the -16.5/-17.5 quote gap is only 54.75¢ to 52.15¢ (2.6 points), preserving key-number mass.
- Illinois State is 4-0 with a 194-47 scoring margin; Northern Iowa is 1-2 at 80-103, and the 2026 PFF overall grades are 93.7 versus 70.5.
- Recent advanced form favors Illinois State: offense EPA/play -0.12 versus UNI -0.36; UNI defense allowed +0.31 EPA/play versus Illinois State +0.15.
- The advanced EPA sample is only two charted games per team, so the projection is noisy.
- Illinois State −18.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Illinois State posted 0.15 EPA/play and 1.91 points/drive in its latest graded game.
- Northern Iowa's latest graded offense produced -0.40 EPA/play, a 0.32 success rate, and 0.00 points/drive.
- Recent scores show Illinois State wins of 76-0, 41-10, and 28-24; UNI lost 24-34 and 0-55 in two of three.
- Most likely loss: UNI stays within two scores, using home-dome conditions and late-game variance.
Questions
Who won Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa?
Northern Iowa won 28-21 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.