FinalPitbull Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| FIU | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 52.5 46¢
Why House Rules likes it: ProphetX under 52.5 is 46.08¢, only 0.63¢ more than its under-52 rung at 45.45¢, despite capturing the exact-52 mass as a win.
House RulesDown 3% this season · 1403 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-3 on this game · +16% return
- Game total over 53.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Game total under 52.5+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX under 52.5 is 46.08¢, only 0.63¢ more than its under-52 rung at 45.45¢, despite capturing the exact-52 mass as a win.
- ProphetX’s own adjacent-rung quotes can move before kickoff, and the comparison is venue self-reference rather than an independent fair line.
- Florida International −41.5 spread−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's main FIU -37.5 supports the direction before the alternate-rung inconsistency.
- The alternate ladder may be noisy; this is a thin, one-game exchange curve rather than a calibrated fair distribution.
- Florida International −35−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- current 2026 FIU offense averages -0.09 EPA/play and 44.4% success across 3 games; LIU defense allowed +0.49 EPA/play in its lone current row.
- LIU offense is -0.17 EPA/play, 33.3% success and 1.6% explosive plays; FIU's current three-game defensive EPA allowed averages -0.04.
- Pinnacle is at Florida International -37.5; ProphetX offers the less-expensive -35 rung.
- Most likely loss: FIU's offense stalls and LIU stays inside 35 through low-scoring variance or late-game points.
- Long Island University +37 spread+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- +37 pushes if Florida International wins by exactly 37; adjacent +37.5 has no push.
- ProphetX quotes +37 at +102 American (49.50¢) versus +37.5 at -103 (50.74¢).
- The contract loses if Florida International wins by 38 or more; no projection edge is claimed.
- Long Island University +37.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- FIU’s 2026 margins are -10, +13, and -6; a 38-point home win is a major outlier.
- FIU has scored 9, 33, and 10 points; it has not shown the offense needed to clear this spread comfortably.
- Pinnacle posts the same LIU +37.5 at -115, confirming the exchange is offering the better underdog price.
- LIU has allowed 51, 42, and 35 in three 2026 losses; a defensive collapse can create FIU short fields.
Show all 7 picks
- Game total under 54.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- FIU averaged -0.09 offensive EPA/play across those three games; LIU posted -0.17 offensive EPA/play against Kansas.
- FIU allowed 16, 20, and 19 points; 54.5 requires LIU to exceed its 6-point baseline or FIU to clear its early scoring profile.
- LIU's defense allowed +0.49 EPA/play in its Kansas game, giving FIU a path to score 40-plus by itself.
Questions
Who won Long Island University vs. Florida International?
Florida International won 20-3 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.