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FinalBryant-Denny Stadium
South Carolina2-1
18–49Final
Alabama3-0
Score by period
Team1234T
SC0100818
ALA142101449

Top model pick, graded

Won

LaNorris Sellers anytime touchdown +165

Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: PWP Composite Grade 76/100: 9 of Sellers' last 10 games included a passing or rushing touchdown.

Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-6 on this game · +26% return

  1. South Carolina Gamecocks spread +14.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  2. LaNorris Sellers anytime touchdown
    +165%Won

    Taken at +165 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 76/100: 9 of Sellers' last 10 games included a passing or rushing touchdown.
    • Last 5 hit rate is 5/5; 2026 season hit rate is 3/3.
    • Alabama carries an 85.0 team defensive grade and 77.4 coverage grade at home.
  3. 1st-quarter total over 10.5 points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3-game means: Alabama 73.7 plays and South Carolina 75.3; both profiles support multiple early possessions.
    • Recent points per drive average 3.69 for Alabama and 3.64 for South Carolina.
    • Projected opening-quarter scoring is roughly 15, 17 points from the pace and scoring-rate inputs.
    • A first quarter is roughly five possessions per team; one punt, turnover, or missed kick can erase the modeled edge.
  4. 1H total over 27.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Three-game window: Alabama 73.7 plays at 28.78 sec/play; South Carolina 75.3 at 25.34; blended pace 27.06.
    • Drive base: Alabama 35 and South Carolina 34 drives; 11.5 combined first-half drives projected after the pace/stoppage haircut.
    • Derived same-rung reference, not an independent first-half sharp total; model fair probability is only 57%.
  5. Game total over 52
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX quotes over 52 at 56.33¢ versus over 52.5 at 54.95¢: only a 1.38¢ premium for the push.
    • A total of exactly 52 refunds rather than producing profit.
  6. Game total over 54
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional check: backing over 54, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • REFERENCE is the only reference; there is no independent sharp confirmation or model probability.
Show all 16 picks
  1. Game total points over 51.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 EPA/play: Alabama +0.37, South Carolina +0.35; both offenses are producing efficiently.
    • Recent scoring averages: Alabama 47.7 points scored, South Carolina 45.3 through September 19.
    • The 51.5/56 ladder range avoids CFB key totals 41, 44 and 47; historical mass there is 7.0% combined.
    • Most likely loss: Alabama controls the game and South Carolina stalls, producing a sub-52 result.
  2. Game total points under 55.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PFF 2026 card: Alabama 85.0 defense and South Carolina 84.1 defense; the venue gap supports staying below 56.
    • Alabama and South Carolina have scored 279 combined points through three games; early short fields or explosives can break 55.5.
  3. Alabama Crimson Tide spread −12
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • CFB predictor projects Alabama by 13.0 points; ProphetX is offering the shorter -12 main number.
    • Alabama's 3-game averages lead South Carolina in offense EPA (+0.37 vs +0.35), success rate (54.9% vs 52.1%), and explosiveness (17.7% vs 14.8%).
    • Only three current-season games; South Carolina's sample includes an FCS opponent, so this is Tier 2/Partial rather than Full.
  4. Alabama Crimson Tide first-half spread over 6.5 NO
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • At the exact 6.5 rung, mean +6.25 and SD 16.22 give P(Alabama >6.5) ≈49.4%, so NO fair probability ≈50.6%.
    • College key-number mass is real: absolute margin 7 occurred 171 times in the sample, second only to 3 at 197; the 6.5 boundary may carry discrete first-half risk.
  5. LaNorris Sellers over 226.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimate: 60.0% hit probability versus 53.3% implied; clears the 4-point value gate.
    • Sellers cleared 226.5 in 2 of 3 2026 starts: 270, 96, 282 yards.
    • Alabama has allowed 227.7 net passing yards per game through three 2026 contests.
    • Only three current-season games; the 96-yard result shows a wide distribution.
  6. Alabama spread −12
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Alabama's 3-game offense averages +0.37 EPA/play, 54.9% success and 17.7% explosive plays versus South Carolina's +0.35, 52.1% and 14.8%.
    • Alabama's defense has allowed +0.01 EPA/play versus South Carolina's +0.06, a 0.05-play defensive efficiency gap.
    • Latest 2026 PFF card favors Alabama in offense 80.4-70.8, coverage 77.4-65.7 and overall grade 92.8-89.2.
    • LEAN cap, South Carolina's current sample includes FCS Towson and Alabama's includes Group-of-Five East Carolina; the 3-game efficiency sample is schedule-sensitive.
  7. Game total points over 56
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • three-game 2026 samples show Alabama at 0.37 offensive EPA/play and South Carolina at 0.35, with success rates of 0.55 and 0.52.
    • Both offenses generate explosives: Alabama 17.7% and South Carolina 14.8%; their latest games produced 50 and 34 points.
    • Pinnacle is 54, while DraftKings/FanDuel are 54.5; ProphetX offers over 56 at +126.
    • Most likely loss: Alabama controls field position and red-zone efficiency, producing a lower-possession game that stays below 56.
  8. South Carolina Gamecocks to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 19¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels: South Carolina 3 vs Alabama 3; neutral corroboration, while the two core measures agree.
    • Venue self-reference is not an independent sharp check; no projection or external order-flow data.
  9. South Carolina Gamecocks spread +12
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX +11.5 to +12 lifts South Carolina from 49.5% to 50.0%; exact margin 12 occurred 129/10,371 times.
    • The 0.5-point price lift understates the observed mass at 12, creating a small cushion-value edge.
    • Fresh box leaders and official availability clear Keelon Russell and LaNorris Sellers; Alabama's -12 main line confirms the matchup range.
    • PFF's latest 2026 card favors Alabama overall, 92.8 to 89.2, especially coverage 77.4 to 65.7.
  10. Alabama Crimson Tide spread −11
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION edge; CFB predictor makes Alabama a 13.01-point favorite, 2.01 points above ProphetX -11.
    • Pinnacle, DraftKings and FanDuel all show Alabama -12.5, 1.5 points worse than this venue number.
    • Through three games, Alabama leads South Carolina in off EPA/play (.372 vs .350), success rate (.549 vs .521) and explosive rate (.177 vs .148).
    • Most likely loss: South Carolina stays within one score and Alabama fails to create separation.

Questions

Who won South Carolina vs. Alabama?

Alabama won 49-18 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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