FinalYulman Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 0 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| TULN | 7 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 24 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTulane Green Wave to win 90¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 11-4 on this game · +38% return
- Game total points under 51.5+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsKey Number CFB, Tempo Board +1Why 3 models like it
Key Number CFB- Tulane's 2026 offense averages only 0.05 EPA/play and 17 points per game through three contests.
- Tulane's recent scores are 3, 28, 20; Southern Miss scored 8 and 20 in its two FBS games before this matchup.
- Southern Miss's offense has +0.15 EPA/play and +0.16 PROE over three games, so Lyddy could outperform the low-scoring recent results.
Tempo Board- sportsbooks were 52.5 and ProphetX’s main rung was 53.
- 2026 sample: Southern Miss averaged 24.23 seconds/play; Tulane averaged 24.87, a moderate combined pace.
- Both defenses allowed positive 2026 EPA: Southern Miss +.093 and Tulane +.157 per play.
Saturday Board Pairs- 2026 three-game efficiency sample: Southern Miss averaged +0.15 EPA/play and 47.6% success; replacement QB Landry Lyddy is confirmed to start after Ethan Hampton’s hand fracture.
- Tulane’s offense averaged only +0.05 EPA/play and 40.8% success across three games; Tulane’s latest PFF offense grade is 65.7.
- Tulane’s defense allowed +0.14 EPA/play in its three-game sample, giving Southern Miss paths to score despite the QB change.
- Southern Miss Golden Eagles to win−100%Lost
Taken at 11¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsCFB Moonshot Singles, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
CFB Moonshot Singles- Tulane projects a 15.2-point win.
Long Way Home- Southern Miss leads 2026 through three games in offensive EPA/play, 0.15 to Tulane's 0.05.
- Southern Miss also has the better defensive EPA/play profile, 0.09 allowed per play versus Tulane's 0.14.
- Three-game sample; Alcorn State may inflate Southern Miss's aggregate EPA.
- Southern Miss Golden Eagles spread +19+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFBWhy 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs- Southern Miss averaged +0.15 offensive EPA/play and 47.6% success rate across 3 current-season games; Tulane allowed +0.16 defensive EPA/play.
- Tulane averaged only +0.05 offensive EPA/play; Southern Miss allowed +0.09 defensive EPA/play, a matchup edge but not a 19-point efficiency gap.
- Southern Miss changes quarterbacks to confirmed starter Landry Lyddy after Ethan Hampton's hand injury; his starting-role sample is only one game.
Key Number CFB- ProphetX's main is Tulane -19; Pinnacle's live reference is Tulane -18, leaving the +19 rung with a full-point cushion.
- 2026 EPA/play: Southern Miss offense +0.15 and defense +0.09 allowed; Tulane +0.05 offense and +0.16 allowed.
- Tulane is a -900 moneyline favorite at home; a clean two-score performance beats this spread quickly.
- Tulane Green Wave to win+11%Won
Taken at 90¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Tulane Green Wave first-half spread over 10.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- At the exact 10.5 rung, the mean+SD model gives Tulane-over probability 39.8%; NO fair probability is 60.2%.
- Pinnacle’s -18 full-game spread scales to roughly +9 first-half, supporting the model’s neighborhood.
- 2026 margin SD is 18.68, well above 14.66 in 2024 and 14.88 in 2025; the pooled SD may understate this season’s tail width.
- Game total under 52.5 points+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season scoring averages total 42.7 points; the market total is 52.5.
- Tulane's offense averages 0.15 EPA/play, but Southern Miss averages only 0.05 EPA/play.
- Southern Miss starts Landry Lyddy after Ethan Hampton's hand fracture; Tulane's Kadin Semonza is the established starter.
- Tulane's 2.09 points per drive can punish Southern Miss' defense, which allows 0.16 EPA/play.
Show all 11 picks
- 1H total under 30.5 points+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Three-game points-per-drive averages are Southern Miss 2.09 and Tulane 1.76, only 3.85 combined.
- Both recent defenses allowed positive EPA/play on average, so Tulane field position or explosive plays can break the total.
- Tulane Green Wave spread −18−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Tulane -18 pushes on an exactly 18-point Tulane win; Tulane -17.5 loses there.
- ProphetX prices Tulane -18 at 50.98¢ (-104) versus Tulane -17.5 at 52.38¢ (-110): only a 1.40-point price drop for that push state.
- Game total under 52.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Directional coherence check: backing under 52.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- ProphetX self-reference is not independent validation; stale or coordinated orders could mimic the depth signal.
- Game 1H total under 23.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Live drive log shows 9 drives and 30 plays by 2:26 of Q1; 50/50 regression with the 11.17-drive season baseline projects 16.4 first-half drives.
- Weeks 1-3 pace: Southern Miss 24.23 sec/play, Tulane 24.64; plays/drive were 6.19 and 5.52, supporting the seasonal drive baseline.
- Points/drive baselines: Southern Miss 2.09, Tulane 1.76; combined PROE .133 and explosive rate .110 imply a derived 10.0% first-half uplift, to 2.11 points/drive.
- The warehouse game clock and drive log are inconsistent: cfb_game still showed 2:26 Q1 while the drive log already had 9 drives.
- Game total under 53+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- current-season scoring is Tulane 17.0 and Southern Miss 25.7 points per game through three games.
- Tulane's offense has produced only 0.05 EPA/play and a 40.2% success rate; that suppression is meaningful against a 53-point number.
- My matchup read projects roughly 46, 49 total points, leaving room below the ProphetX 53.
- Southern Miss has the stronger current offensive profile: 0.15 EPA/play and 47.6% success rate.
Questions
Who won Southern Miss vs. Tulane?
Tulane won 24-21 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.