FinalHouck Field
West Florida2-1
20–17Final
Score by period
Team1234T
WEST337720
SOUT370717

Top model pick, graded

Won

West Florida Argonauts to win 37¢

Why Long Way Home likes it: West Florida averages 30.7 points scored and 27.7 allowed across three 2026 games; SEMO averages 20.0 and 25.5 across four.

Long Way HomeDown 4% this season · 3706 picks

How the picks did

Models went 1-2 on this game · −10% return

  1. Southeast Missouri State −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  2. Southeast Missouri State −6 spread (pushes at exactly a 6-point home win; 1.726% historical signed-margin mass)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • -6 pushes at exactly a six-point Southeast Missouri State win, while adjacent -5.5 wins.
    • ProphetX quotes -6 at 48.54¢ versus -5.5 at 50.00¢: only a 1.46-point price concession for the push outcome.
    • Both comparison prices are ProphetX venue self-reference, not an independent sharp fair line.
  3. West Florida Argonauts to win
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • West Florida averages 30.7 points scored and 27.7 allowed across three 2026 games; SEMO averages 20.0 and 25.5 across four.
    • West Florida beat shared opponent Central Arkansas 42-14; SEMO beat Central Arkansas 27-9, a 10-point margin gap.
    • Only three West Florida and four SEMO games inform the projection; opponent adjustment is thin.

Questions

Who won West Florida vs. Southeast Missouri State?

West Florida won 20-17 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.