FinalStamford Bridge · London
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| CHEL | 2 | 3 | 5 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-16 on this game · −100% return
- AFC Bournemouth to win−100%Lost
Taken at 30¢ on ProphetX
5 modelsFair Price Pairs, Team Sheet Pairs +3Why 5 models like it
Fair Price Pairs- current Pinnacle away price is context only; ProphetX is the placement venue.
- Starting XI is not posted at 4:28 AM PDT; this is a projection claim, not a timing claim.
Team Sheet Pairs- Chelsea's confirmed XI projects 1.72 attacking xG versus its 1.76 baseline (-0.04), a 0.15-goal directional swing toward Bournemouth.
- The live lineup has Bournemouth starting Tyler Adams, Rayan, and Evanilson; Chelsea starts Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers, and João Pedro.
- The 2-way contract loses on a draw, unlike the separate 90-minute three-way market.
Low Tide Line- Bournemouth's model profile leads Chelsea away from home: 1.4 vs 1.7 points per game, with a 2-point rest edge.
- Pinnacle disagrees on level at +334, but its away price shortened from +374; recent movement runs toward Bournemouth.
- Pinnacle's current three-way reference materially rejects the warehouse probability; the projection may be missing information.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Bournemouth’s away venue split: 19 points, 15 goals for and 11 against in 10 matches.
- Opponent-adjusted xG favors Bournemouth’s away profile: 1.53 for and 1.11 against.
- Chelsea remains the sportsbook favorite; the model may be miscalibrated or overreacting to a small sample.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi
3 modelsTwo Nil, Bench Boss +1Why 3 models like it
Two Nil- Bournemouth 1.53 xGF plus Chelsea 1.37 xGA gives 1.45 expected Bournemouth goals; computed expected total is 2.79.
- Pinnacle posts 3.0 goals at Over +102 / Under -113; it supports a lower-scoring band but is a different rung.
- PPDA is 13.08 for Chelsea and 12.85 for Bournemouth; field-tilt proxies are .484 and .469, so tempo offers no major cooler adjustment.
Bench Boss- confirmed XIs show four defenders for each side; Bournemouth lists one attacker and Chelsea three, creating a shape-sensitive matchup rather than an unrestricted shootout.
- Both teams' press rates are similar (13.08 and 12.85 passes allowed per defensive action) and field tilt is below 0.50, offering no clear sustained territorial-control edge.
- The directness ratios are high (Chelsea 0.66, Bournemouth 0.70), so transition attacks can create a fast four-goal script.
Long Haul- no qualifying Long Haul decay pillar; model lambdas total 2.85 (Chelsea 1.30, Bournemouth 1.55) are the sole numerical support.
- Confirmed XI gate cleared: the fresh lineup query shows 11 starters for Chelsea and 11 for AFC Bournemouth.
- Most likely loss is four or more regular-time goals, especially after an early goal changes the match state.
- AFC Bournemouth spread +1−100%Lost
Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles lambdas are 1.30 Chelsea and 1.55 Bournemouth with dc_rho -0.05; mass favors margins at or below zero.
- Whole-goal +1 pushes on a one-goal Chelsea win; the stake is returned, not counted as a loss.
- Chelsea winning by two or more loses; recent Chelsea results include 0-3, 4-3, and 3-2 margins.
- AFC Bournemouth first team to score−100%Lost
Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- Model lambdas are Chelsea 1.30 and AFC Bournemouth 1.55, with 10-match xG coverage and model flag true.
- Constant-hazard AFC Bournemouth first-score probability is 51.2%; conservative late-hazard correction leaves 51.0%.
- Bournemouth first-score probability remains below its 70.5c team-total over 0.5 quote, satisfying the softer constraint.
- Chelsea scores first at its 60c FTTS mid; Bournemouth scoring at any time is not enough.
- Total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 10-game xG window each: opponent-adjusted blend builds Chelsea 1.35 plus Bournemouth 1.45, or 2.79 expected goals; Poisson under 2.5 is about 47%.
- Coherence check passed narrowly: pressing is aggressive on both sides (PPDA 13.08 and 12.85), so this is a price-value under call, not a low-total forecast; band RECOMMENDED.
- Chelsea and Bournemouth's xG inputs cover only 10 competitive matches each, so the error bar is wider than a 20-plus-game sample.
- Under 3.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles/Poisson puts under 3.5 near 68%; ProphetX -162 implies 61.83¢, about a 6-point gap.
- Four or more goals loses; the model leaves roughly 32% in that tail.
Show all 10 picks
- Under 2.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG: Chelsea 1.58 for / 1.37 against; Bournemouth 1.53 for / 1.11 against; gp_with_xg is 10 for both.
- under 3.5 is -162 (61.83¢), while under 2.5 is +156 (39.06¢); the 2.5 rung is the value point.
- Chelsea and Bournemouth's combined lambda still centers near 2.85; three goals loses.
- AFC Bournemouth wins 1-0−100%Lost
Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Orientation: home is Chelsea; model key 0-1 is the contract “AFC Bournemouth wins 1-0”.
- Pinnacle three-way disagrees with the model: Chelsea -121, Bournemouth +334, Draw +291; no sharp corroboration of the model direction.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Chelsea scoring read 76.0%: oppadj xGF 1.58 vs Bournemouth xGA 1.27; 10/10 xG matches.
- Bournemouth scoring read 78.4%: oppadj xGF 1.53 vs Chelsea xGA 1.54; 10/10 xG matches.
- Symmetric both-score profile implies YES 59.6%, hence NO 40.4%; this is not an asymmetric defense case.
- One goal by each side defeats NO, and both scoring probabilities are individually high.
- AFC Bournemouth spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 9¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The lambda cross-check gives roughly 21.5% for Bournemouth to win by 2+; after shrinking toward the current competition sample, my estimate is 15% versus a 9% venue price.
- Current Premier League sample: away teams won by 2+ in 5 of 50 completed matches; Chelsea/Bournemouth's 10 current-season matches contain no 2+ margin for either side.
- The team-specific sample is only 10 matches and shows 0/10 two-goal margins; that may be more predictive than the broad lambda read.
Questions
Who won AFC Bournemouth vs. Chelsea?
Chelsea won 5-1 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.