FinalMKM Stadium · Hull
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| EVER | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| HULL | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonHull City first team to score 37¢
Why First Strike likes it: Model lambdas are 1.03 Hull City and 1.13 Everton; constant-hazard Hull first-goal probability is 42.2%.
First StrikeUp 2% return this season · 212 picksLongshots
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-10 on this game · −75% return
- Total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at −130 on FanDuel
4 modelsCoaches Corner, Two Nil +2Why 4 models like it
Coaches Corner- Everton’s Moyes-led side has won four and drawn three across all competitions, with a joint-best defensive record.
- Hull coach Sergej Jakirovic explicitly favors staying compact and counterattacking rather than dominating possession.
- Hull conceding early would force Jakirovic’s counter plan open, creating a path to three goals.
Two Nil- Computed xG total is 2.43 versus approximately 2.50 implied by the same-rung Kalshi 46% Over price.
- The edge is only about 0.07 goals versus the market-implied total; normal match variance dominates.
Team Sheet Pairs- Everton's confirmed XI restores Pickford, Mykolenko and Garner; their club ratings are 6.91, 6.88 and 7.23.
- Hull's confirmed XI restores Egan, whose 10-match club sample is 7.00 rated with 0.03 xG/90; xi keeper-conceded signals are Everton 0.50 and Hull 1.02.
- Most likely loss: the current attacking XIs produce a third goal; their listed attacking-XG totals are Hull 1.88 and Everton 1.72.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Opponent-adjusted xG is modest: Hull 1.20, Everton 1.43 for; combined model lambda is 2.17.
- Both teams average only 1.0 and 1.4 goals for in the preview's venue splits.
- Everton's stronger attack can break a low-event script with an early goal.
- Match total under 2.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsEarly Whistle, Low Tide LineWhy 2 models like it
Early Whistle- Opponent-adjusted rates pair to roughly 1.18 Hull goals and 1.25 Everton goals, about 56% under 2.5.
- Warehouse Dixon-Coles rates are lower at 1.03 and 1.13, implying 63.4% under 2.5.
- Hull's Jack Butland is out with an arm injury; the likely replacement is not a confirmed XI goalkeeper.
Low Tide Line- Recent Kalshi movement lowered over 2.5 from roughly 46¢ to 45¢, moving the under direction with the projection.
- No matching global total-goals contract exists, so the secondary cohort check cannot map to this placement.
- Hull City first team to score+170%Won
Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- Model lambdas are 1.03 Hull City and 1.13 Everton; constant-hazard Hull first-goal probability is 42.2%.
- Late-goal concentration was 85 of 148 goals after halftime versus 63 before; Everton had 3 of 5 late goals versus Hull's 1 of 4.
- Hull City's 0.5 team-total contract is 65¢, comfortably above its 37¢ first-to-score price; the softer constraint passes. RECOMMENDED.
- Everton's adjusted attack is stronger: 1.43 away xGF versus Hull's 1.20 home xGF, so the race model still has Everton first at about 46%.
- Hull City to win0%Push
Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- confirmed XI materially improves Hull's attacking profile relative to its usual-XI baseline.
- Hull's confirmed XI carries 1.88 attacking xG versus a 1.28 baseline (+0.60); Everton falls to 1.72 from 1.95 (-0.23).
- The starting-XI differential swings 0.83 xG toward Hull; both teams have confirmed lineups and 10-match xG coverage.
- Most likely loss: a draw, which loses this 2-way contract rather than pushing.
- Both teams to score: No−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Hull's expected goals for is only 1.14 per match, while Everton's opponent-adjusted xG against is 1.16.
- Recent rolling output shows Hull at 3.6 shots on target and Everton at 5.0, supporting a controlled rather than explosive matchup.
- Everton's away scoring rate is 1.4 goals per match, so one away goal is not a surprise.
- Under 1.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 29¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG is controlled: Hull home 1.20 for / 1.07 against; Everton away 1.43 for / 1.16 against.
- The model gives only a 35.6% win chance; 2+ goals remain the much likelier outcome.
Show all 8 picks
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Hull scoring read ≈69%: 1.20 oppadj xGF versus Everton 1.16 oppadj xGA.
- Everton scoring read ≈71%: 1.43 oppadj xGF versus Hull 1.07 oppadj xGA.
- Per-side product gives BTTS YES ≈49.4%, NO ≈50.6%; this is symmetric-ish, not a total-goals thesis.
- The estimated NO probability is only 50.6% against a 49¢ entry; the roughly 1.6-point pre-friction edge is variance-sensitive.
- Hull City spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 10¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The lambda cross-check gives Hull City goal difference ≥2 about 12.5%; 2026 Premier League empirical home goal difference ≥2 is 11/56 (19.6%).
- NO REFERENCE, no usable independent sharp full-match exact-rung handicap price was confirmed; this is a venue-price comparison only.
- The 10-match xG sample is real but still small; the 56-match empirical sample mixes venues and teams rather than matching this exact fixture.
Questions
Who won Everton vs. Hull City?
Hull City won 2-2 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.