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FinalPortman Road Stadium · Ipswich
Fulham
1–2Final
Ipswich Town
Score by period
Team12T
FULH011
IPSW022

Top model pick, graded

Won

Ipswich Town to win +205

Why Coaches Corner likes it: Ipswich's 4-2-3-1 can become a compact 4-4-2 press against Fulham's 4-3-3/3-4-3 possession shape.

Coaches CornerUp 1% return this season · 961 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-10 on this game · −26% return

  1. Fulham to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsLow Tide Line, Snapp Decision of the Day +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Low Tide Line
    • Full feature coverage is present; each side has 10 prior matches in the xG/model sample.
    • Coherence: Kalshi Fulham moved from 39.5c to 40c; Pinnacle moved from +144 to +133, both moving with Fulham.
    • The model has only 10 matches per side, so the projection is vulnerable to short-sample error.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Model gives Fulham 53.6% away-win probability versus 42.6% sharp-market fair probability.
    • Fulham's opponent-adjusted xG is 1.77 away versus Ipswich's 1.50 at home.
    • Fulham's recent away form is only 3-3-4 across 10 matches.
    Number Earned
    • 53.6% model win probability implies a fair line of -116; DraftKings offers +135.
    • Opponent-adjusted xG favors Fulham 1.77 for versus 1.06 against; Ipswich sits at 1.50 for versus 1.45 against.
    • The underlying form and xG sample covers only 10 venue-specific matches; model calibration is uncertain.
  2. Ipswich Town to win
    +205%Won

    Taken at +205 on DraftKings

    Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ipswich's 4-2-3-1 can become a compact 4-4-2 press against Fulham's 4-3-3/3-4-3 possession shape.
    • Fulham's tactical preview flags an open defensive structure and wide spaces for Ipswich's direct transition game.
    • Warehouse profiles show Ipswich's directness ratio at 0.78 versus Fulham's 0.66; Ipswich can attack the space behind advanced wide players.
    • Fulham's model win probability is 53.6%, with a stronger field-tilt profile (.593 versus Ipswich .480).
  3. Fulham −1Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX

    Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon-Coles lambdas 1.18/1.90 with rho -0.05 yield 31.2% Fulham wins by 2+.
    • The -1 rung tests the one-goal boundary: 22.4% lands exactly one, pushing; 46.4% loses.
    • Pinnacle same rung +258; devig fair win probability 27.1%, 4.1 points below my estimate.
    • THIN band: only 10 xG matches per side; the 4.1-point model/reference gap can be sampling noise.
  4. Total goals over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on ProphetX

    XI DeltaUp 138% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Combined xG-for rate is 3.28: Ipswich 1.45 plus Fulham 1.83.
    • Both teams posted near-first-choice XIs, with only one starter changed from each latest lineup.
    • The 3.28-goal projection comes from only 10 matches per team and may overstate actual finishing.
  5. Fulham FC first team to score
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
    Why it likes it
    • λ Fulham 1.90 vs λ Ipswich 1.18; race model gives Fulham 58.8% after a small late-hazard adjustment.
    • Pinnacle's 2.8-goal total at -108 is an independent sharp anchor for the scoring environment.
    • Goal counts rise late: 335, 332, 454, 460, 389, 558 by successive time bucket; correction is under one point to the race share.
    • Ipswich scoring first or a 0-0 result defeats the contract.
  6. Ipswich Town over 1.5 goals
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    Tally SheetNew model
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION. Reconciled base lambda 1.23 from the opponent-adjusted pair and fitted 1.18; Ipswich keeper correction adds 0.27, yielding 1.50?
    • Correction direction: Fulham keeper goals prevented -0.74 raises Ipswich scoring mean; priced lambda 1.97 after direct adjustment.
    • BTTS is 61c versus the model's 86.3% × 86.8% zero-goal complements; the venue quote is below the product by 13.8 points.
    • The third Ipswich rung, over 2.5, was not returned, so the full six-contract ladder cannot be audited.
Show all 13 picks
  1. Total Goals (Regular Time) over 2.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • current XIs total 4.48 attacking xG (Ipswich 2.41, Fulham 2.07).
    • Ipswich starts Philogene (0.55 xG/90), Enciso (0.42) and Emersonn (0.40); Fulham starts García (0.45) and King (0.28).
    • Most likely loss: 0-2 goals, especially 1-1 or 1-0.
  2. Over 3.5 Total Goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on ProphetX

    Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon-Coles/Poisson translation puts 4+ goals near 37.1%; ProphetX's +192 is 34.25¢ implied, a roughly 2.9-point projection gap.
    • Opponent-adjusted xG supports the total: Ipswich Town 1.50 for / 1.45 against; Fulham 1.77 for / 1.06 against.
    • adjacent over 2.5 is 56.52¢ and over 4.5 is 17.09¢; the 3.5 over is the attractive rung at +192.
    • 0-3 goals loses; the model still assigns roughly 62.9% to that outcome.
  3. Fulham FC wins 3-1Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 4¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Coverage is sound: min_gp_with_xg is 10. Live subset is 16 of 35 contracts; mid-price sum is 83.5%; 19 contracts were discarded as dead.
    • Starting XIs are not posted. Late lineup changes can alter the fitted score distribution.
  4. Both Teams To Score NO
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Symmetric case, but both scoring probabilities combine to 59.8% BTTS, below the 61.5% Kalshi mid and 61.4% devigged Pinnacle reference.
    • The model and sharp reference are nearly aligned with YES around 61%; my blended per-side estimate could simply be conservative.
  5. Total goals over 2.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model mean is 3.08 goals, giving a modest 2.89-point baseline gap over the quoted contract price.
    • the direct ProphetX board supplied the live rung and three book levels; no same-line sportsbook comparison was used.
    • Most likely loss is 0-2 total goals; the 2.5 line has no push.
  6. Fulham spread over 1.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 20¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 27 sample (50 matches): 0-goal margins 32%, 1-goal margins 38%, 2-goal margins 10%, and 3+ margins 16%; the ladder is visibly lumpy rather than smooth.
    • This is venue self-reference rather than a same-rung sharp comparison, so the claim is capped at LEAN and the model may be wrong.
  7. Fulham under 2.5 total goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both sides are quoted. The under clears the $300 availability gate and the -250 to +300 American price band.
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-10T06:22:32-07:00; the current under rung is the contract priced here.
    • The warehouse lens covers 10 xG matches per side; Fulham's away xG against is 1.06 and Ipswich's home xG for is 1.50.
    • LEAN only. The 3.61x ratio is below the 10x recommended threshold.

Questions

Who won Fulham vs. Ipswich Town?

Ipswich Town won 2-1 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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