FinalAnfield · Liverpool
Manchester City
3–0Final
Liverpool
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| MC | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| LIV | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonBoth Teams To Score NO 38¢
Why Team Sheet likes it: Kalshi last changed at 07:38:22 PDT, before the lineup news; the contract remained at 62¢/63¢ YES afterward.
Team SheetDown 1% this season · 75 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 9-2 on this game · +94% return
- Both Teams To Score NO+163%Won
Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi
3 modelsTeam Sheet, Both Nets +1Why 3 models like it
Team Sheet- Kalshi last changed at 07:38:22 PDT, before the lineup news; the contract remained at 62¢/63¢ YES afterward.
- lambdas move from Liverpool 1.16 and Manchester City 1.71 to approximately 0.79 and 1.71 after Ekitiké's adjustment; BTTS YES estimates 44.6%, NO 55.4%.
- Liverpool's confirmed XI attacking quality is 2.58, above the observed recent norm near 2.21; the replacement setup may offset Ekitiké's absence.
Both Nets- Projection: Liverpool scoring read 73.8% (λ≈1.34); Manchester City 80.1% (λ≈1.61), each from opponent-adjusted xGF versus opponent xGA.
- Symmetric BTTS case, but neither side clears a 90% scoring threshold; product gives BTTS-YES ≈59.1%, hence NO ≈40.9%.
- Both attacks are strong enough to score once; an early goal or transition-heavy match can make YES win quickly.
Number Earned- Liverpool’s opponent-adjusted defensive xG is 1.21; City’s is 0.99 away.
- The matchup’s four-game head-to-head file shows BTTS in only 25% of meetings.
- The same model is only 2.34 percentage points above the price-implied No probability.
- Manchester City to win+110%Won
Taken at +110 on DraftKings
2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Snapp Decision of the Day- Opponent-adjusted xG favors City 1.91 away to Liverpool's 1.59 at home.
- City's away form is 8-1-1 with 25 goals scored and 8 conceded.
- Only a small model-price gap; the match remains close to a coin flip.
Number Earned- Manchester City’s opponent-adjusted xG profile leads: 1.91 for and 0.99 against per match.
- City’s away form is 8-1-1 with a +17 goal difference across 10 matches.
- The model was computed through October 4, so current-season inputs may be stale.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent 50 Premier League fixtures produced 38 first-half goals from 118, a 32.2% first-half share.
- That split maps the full-ladder mean to 1.00 first-half goals; the 1H quote is high by 0.39 expected goals.
- Reconciled P(under 1.5 1H) is about 73.6%; Kalshi NO costs 60c. The structural gap is about 14 points.
- The 2H total has only one live rung with a 7-cent spread, so it cannot independently validate the fitted split.
- Under 3.5 Total Goals+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG: Liverpool 1.59 for / 1.21 against at home; Manchester City 1.91 for / 0.99 against away.
- The Dixon-Coles goal distribution still assigns approximately 32.4% to four or more goals.
- total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 days - Game total under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US
Matchday Minus OneDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The model gives under 2.5 goals a 45.5% chance, above the 40¢ Polymarket US cost.
- The first-score market makes a goal likely but does not require a shootout: City first 53¢ and neither team 6¢.
- The market's 61¢ over/40¢ under pricing is more aggressive than the model's 54.5% over estimate.
- Liverpool-City has elite attacking talent; one early goal can open the match quickly.
Show all 8 picks
- Manchester City first to score+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US
Matchday Minus OneDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- City have scored 25 goals in 10 recent matches (2.50/game) versus Liverpool's 16 (1.60).
- Total cross-check: model over 2.5 is 54.5% versus a 61¢ market price, while no-goal is only 6¢; no major cross-market dislocation.
- Liverpool's xG rate is nearly level with City's, 1.63 versus 1.75, and home advantage matters.
- Manchester City spread over 1.5+317%Won
Taken at 24¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opposition-adjusted inputs: Liverpool home xGF 1.59 / xGA 1.21; Manchester City away xGF 1.91 / xGA 0.99; xG coverage is 10 matches for each side.
- Pinnacle exposed only a -0.25 handicap, not this rung; no cross-rung sharp comparison is used.
- Only a 3.1-point gap versus the venue; the model could simply be wrong, so this is capped at LEAN.
Questions
Who won Manchester City vs. Liverpool?
Manchester City won 3-0 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.