Get app
FinalThe Coventry Building Society Arena · Coventry
Newcastle United
1–4Final
Coventry City
Score by period
Team12T
NEWC011
COVE134

Top model pick, graded

Won

Coventry City first team to score 41¢

Why First Strike likes it: Pinnacle independently posts Over 2.8 goals at -123, supporting a high-arrival environment rather than a low-event correction.

First StrikeUp 2% return this season · 212 picksLongshots
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 6-5 on this game · +56% return

  1. Coventry City to winLong shot2 models agree
    +260%Won

    Taken at +260 on FanDuel

    2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Warehouse model makes Coventry 35.7% to win versus 26.1% sharp-market fair probability.
    • Coventry's home form is 5-0-5 with 18 goals scored; Newcastle's away form is 5-3-2.
    • Features were computed through September 19, and starting-XI confirmation was incomplete before kickoff.
    Number Earned
    • Dixon-Coles expected goals are nearly level: Coventry 1.40, Newcastle 1.45.
    • Coventry's 1.26 opponent-adjusted home xG for is close to Newcastle's 1.42 away figure.
    • Model features were computed through September 19, so the underlying estimate is stale for this October 12 match.
  2. Total goals under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted xG: Coventry xGF/xGA 1.26/1.38 and Newcastle xGF/xGA 1.42/1.50; computed expected total ≈2.78.
    • Pinnacle's live 2.8 line devigs to about 46.2% under; Kalshi's 41¢ under offers the projection value.
    • Only 10 xG-covered matches per side, below the desk's 12-match top-tier comfort mark.
  3. Coventry City first team to score
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle independently posts Over 2.8 goals at -123, supporting a high-arrival environment rather than a low-event correction.
    • Kalshi FTTS ladder is clean: Coventry spread 2¢, all three mids sum to 99¢, and the contract is trading.
    • Feature coverage is only 10 matches; the pregame feature snapshot is computed through September 19.
  4. Under 2.5 total goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • confirmed XIs cut Coventry's attack to 1.80 xG versus a 2.07 usual-XI baseline (-0.27).
    • Haji Wright is absent; his kickoff advanced sample carried 0.55 xG/90 across six starts.
    • Newcastle's confirmed XI is 1.58 xG versus a 1.57 baseline, concentrating the lineup downgrade on Coventry.
    • An early goal can force an open game and produce the third goal.
  5. Under 3.5 Total Goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX

    Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both teams have 23 rest days and no congestion flag; no unconfirmed lineup adjustment is included in the projection.
    • Starting XIs were not posted at the 9:24 AM PDT check; a late striker or goalkeeper change could shift the goal distribution.
  6. Coventry City to win (90 min)Long shot
    +257%Won

    Taken at 28¢ on Kalshi

    Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Coventry's xG inputs are fully covered: 1.30 for, 1.46 against; Newcastle 1.33 for, 1.68 against.
    • Coherence: model and Coventry cohort agree; Kalshi moved 30.5c to 29.5c, against us, but no other confirmation conflicts.
    • Coventry has lost 4 of its last 5, while Newcastle is 3-1-1 in its last five.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Coventry City wins 1-0Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 6¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The scoreline ranks fifth in the six-score top-k; min_gp_with_xg is 10.
    • Features were computed through 2026-09-19, so the projection may miss later team news.
  2. Both teams to score NO
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Coventry scoring read 77.1%; Newcastle read 76.3%; symmetric case, not an asymmetric weak-attacker setup.
    • Blended lambdas are 1.47 for Coventry and 1.44 for Newcastle from opp-adjusted attack versus opponent xGA.
    • Independent BTTS-NO estimate is 41.2%, versus 38c Kalshi NO entry; 3.2 percentage-point projection edge.
    • Only 10 xG matches per side; the sample is usable but not deep, so variance dominates a small edge.
  3. Newcastle United spread NOFavorite
    +32%Won

    Taken at 76¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; full coverage: opp-adjusted inputs are Coventry 1.26 xGF/1.38 xGA and Newcastle 1.42/1.50, with 10 xG games each.
    • Dixon-Coles lambdas are Coventry 1.40 and Newcastle 1.45 (rho -0.05); the low-score cross-check gives Newcastle margin 2+ about 18.4%.
    • Current-season Premier League goal differences put away-side margins of 2+ at 7/59 (11.9%); 0, +1, and -1 comprise 40/59 outcomes.
    • no live independent sharp quote exists for this exact -1.5 rung; Pinnacle currently shows a different -0.2 line.
  4. Total goals over 3.5
    +163%Won

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-12T11:13:00-07:00; xG coverage is 10 matches per side.
    • this is one strong total-ladder signal; moneyline, three-way, and spread flow lack 3x coherence.

Questions

Who won Newcastle United vs. Coventry City?

Coventry City won 4-1 on Monday, Oct 12, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.