Marlins vs. Padres: Final Score & Model Picks

Updated Nov 3, 8:25 PM PST

FinalPetco Park

Marlins76-79

3-7

Padres86-69

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	T
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	3
SD	0	2	0	2	0	0	1	2	-	7

Top model pick, graded

Won

No 8th-inning draw 39¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: Anchor fit: Polymarket US Padres moneyline is 58.5¢ and the 8.5-run total is 47¢ over / 54¢ under.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 7-9 on this game · −9% return

Walker Buehler under 4.5 strikeouts2 models agreeHigh conviction
−100%Lost
Taken at −135 on BetMGM
2 modelsMLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL, Señor Strikeouts
Why 2 models like it
MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
- 122 strikeouts in 143.1 current-season innings implies 4.1 Ks/start across 30 starts.
- Recent five starts: 1, 4, 6, 3, and 4 strikeouts; four stayed below 4.5.
- A five-inning workload still leaves enough batters faced for five strikeouts.
Señor Strikeouts
- Buehler's recent five-start K/9 is 5.54, with 86.2 pitches per start and 5.0 innings per start.
- FanDuel −128 is materially better than Pinnacle's −153 reference price on the same 4.5 line.
- Buehler's full-season 2026 total is 122 strikeouts in 143.1 innings, so the recent decline may reverse.
Game total under 8.5 runs2 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at −124 on FanDuel
2 modelsRicky Pregame MLB Totals, Selective Pressure
Why 2 models like it
Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
- 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 7.6 runs, fair total line 7.5, Under 8.5 win probability 63%, push probability 0%; model run 2:40 PM CDT, official lineups/weather lock 2:40 PM CDT.
- Petco Park carries an 88 run factor; 74°F and a 9-mph left-to-right wind are not enough to overcome the park suppression.
- The 2026 hitter table contains only one game for most listed batters; stable historical Statcast inputs carry substantial sample uncertainty.
Selective Pressure
- Our read is approximately 56% under, a modest positive gap over the 54.34¢ venue price.
- Petco Park carries a 90 run factor; Sandy Alcantara's last-five WHIP is 0.95.
- San Diego's bullpen has thrown 129 pitches over the last three days, creating late-inning over risk.
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres first-five total under 3.5 (first 5 innings)
−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US
Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Polymarket US anchor: Padres moneyline 80¢ and full-game total under 8.5 at 56¢ imply a moderate, not explosive, run environment.
- Sharp Pinnacle reference is first-five 3.0, over −122/under −104; that independently points below the venue's 3.5-over pricing.
- Both Polymarket US sides were quoted and tradable at the live read; this is an internal-coherence mismatch with sharp support.
- The game is live at 2-0 in the top of the third, so two more runs before the fifth ends the under.
No 8th-inning draw
+156%Won
Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US
Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Anchor fit: Polymarket US Padres moneyline is 58.5¢ and the 8.5-run total is 47¢ over / 54¢ under.
- 2024-25 MLB finals averaged 8.79 and 8.90 runs; the anchor environment is roughly 8.8-8.9 runs, or about 0.98 per inning.
- A flat-rate, home-favored fit puts an ordinary inning draw near 47%, so inning-8 NO is about 53% before the venue spread.
- The inning estimate is an approximation; the warehouse has full-game scoring shape but no inning-level historical distribution for this matchup.
Miami Marlins over 2.5 team runs
+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle's 8.0 game-total rung is one full run above its 2.5 MIA plus 4.5 SD team-total rungs.
- Miami's nine are posted and Walker Buehler is confirmed as the opposing right-handed starter; direction is verified, not assumed.
- Miami has scored 0 through two innings and needs three runs over the remaining game.
Walker Buehler under 15.5 outs recorded
−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 27% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Projected 13.8 outs versus 15.5, a 1.7-out line edge.
- Under in 3 of Buehler's last 5 starts: 14, 7, 15, 15, 18 outs.
- Last-five workload averages 77 pitches, below his 82-pitch season average.
- Only a five-start sample; 60% is barely above the minimum threshold.

Show all 14 picks

Miami Marlins to win
−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US
Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
Game total under 8 (push at exactly 8)
−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- ProphetX under 8 is 50.5¢ (−102), versus 46.3¢ (+116) for adjacent under 7.5: only 4.2 percentage points for the push rung.
- The other adjacent comparison is similarly compressed: under 8.5 is 54.55¢ (−120), only 4.05 points above under 8.
No run in the 1st inning
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Petco Park carries an 88 run factor and 91 home-run factor; 74°F crosswind is stable.
- Alcantara's current expected wOBA allowed is .305 with 3.90 xERA; Buehler's is .318 with 4.27 xERA.
- Confirmed top-four orders are average versus right-handed pitching: Marlins .331 and Padres .326 team xwOBA.
- Buehler's detailed current-season profile is inconsistent in the warehouse; only the game snapshot quality metrics are trusted.
Sandy Alcantara over 3.5 pitching strikeouts
−100%Lost
Taken at −121 on DraftKings
Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- 9 of his latest 10 appearances cleared 3.5 strikeouts; 61 total Ks (6.1 average).
- Latest profile shows 7.32 K/9, with 8.27 K/9 over his last 3 and 7.75 over his last 5.
- Conservative shrinkage of the 9/10 hit rate and K-rate baseline gives a 75% hit estimate.
- An early contact-heavy outing or pitch-count trouble could limit innings before four strikeouts.
First-inning runs
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- derived RFI estimate 53% versus Kalshi raw yes_ask 0.49, correctly read as 49¢.
- Posted 1-3 hitters are Stowers-Lopez-Conine and Tatis-Harris-Machado; current vs-RHP team xwOBA is .3307 Miami and .3262 San Diego.
- Buehler's verified first-inning prior allowed a .3267 BA with a 12.7% K rate over 118 PA; that weakens cold-start protection.
- Alcantara's first-inning prior was materially better: .2459 BA and 18.1% K over 133 PA.
San Diego Padres run line −1.5
+150%Won
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle lists Padres −1.5 at +148; mlb_query confirms Buehler and Alcantara, with 18 starters posted.
- LEAN only: the 5.9x ratio is below the 10x recommended threshold.
San Diego Padres to win
+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle also favors San Diego at −146; this is corroboration, not the edge calculation.
- LEAN only: the model contradicts the flow, Miami starter xERA 3.90 versus San Diego 4.27, and Miami lineup xwOBA .3337 versus San Diego .319.
Game total over 7.5
+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
UndertowUp 2% over 123 picks
Why it likes it
- SDTrading holds the global Miami, San Diego over 7.5 position at 0.56 average and 0.57 current; signal decay is 2.7%.
- The live game is already 2-0 in the bottom of the second, while six additional runs still cash the over.
- A 99% MLB win rate is unusually strong; its large median ticket and low sub-$20 share reduce, but do not eliminate, farming concerns.