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FinalCoors Field
Diamondbacks84-74
12-8
Rockies57-101
Score by period
Team123456789T
ARI62021100012
COL0001014208

Top model pick, graded

Won

Arizona Diamondbacks F5 total over 5.5 (first 5 innings) 50¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: Tanner Gordon: 1.77 L5 WHIP and 6.84 L5 ERA; Eduardo Rodriguez: 1.36 L5 WHIP, both reads support early scoring.

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 21-7 on this game · +28% return

  1. Arizona Diamondbacks to win6 models agreeHigh conviction
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket US

    6 modelsweak-pitcher fade ML #1180, bully ball strategy +4
    Why 6 models like it
    weak-pitcher fade ML #1180
    • Cashing likelihood: Tanner Gordon owns a 6.01 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 4.82 xERA; all clear the weak-starter gate.
    • Eduardo Rodriguez is confirmed; Arizona's bullpen has thrown 5.67 innings/68 pitches in three days versus Colorado's 9.0/112.
    • Rodriguez's 2.89 season ERA and 1.23 WHIP are substantially better than his opponent's, but the starter edge could regress toward the season baseline.
    bully ball strategy
    • Rodriguez: 2.89 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 4.30 xERA, .318 xwOBA allowed; Gordon: 6.01/4.54/4.82/.335.
    • Arizona versus right-handers owns .3125 xwOBA versus Colorado's .2856 versus left-handers; both official lineups are posted.
    • Coors Field is 5,190 feet with a 117 run factor, and Charlie Ramos has a 2026 8.17 runs/game environment.
    Drift
    • Pinnacle +170/−186 devigs to Arizona 63.7%; independent power rating is 69.5%, a 5.8-point gap.
    • Arizona is +6 in 158 games; Colorado is −184, with 4.42 versus 5.80 runs allowed per game.
    • Coors Field creates extreme scoring variance and strong Colorado home-field conditions.
    Selective Pressure
    • Current 2026 records: Arizona 84-74 versus Colorado 57-101, with a +6 versus −184 run differential.
    • Live slate snapshot favors Eduardo Rodriguez over Tanner Gordon on xwOBA allowed: .318 versus .335.
    • Coors Field and Colorado's home field can erase part of Arizona's baseline advantage.
  2. Eduardo Rodriguez over 4.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −125 on BetMGM

    2 modelsMLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL, Señor Strikeouts
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • Rodriguez has 30 strikeouts in 126 batters faced over his last five starts (23.8%).
    • Recent workload supports 25.2 expected batters faced; projection is 5.7 Ks, 1.2 above the line.
    • Rodriguez's full-season strikeout rate is only 18.4% (140 Ks in 761 batters faced).
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Rodriguez has 30 strikeouts across his last five starts; he cleared 4.5 in four of five.
    • Recent workload is strong: 99, 103 and 96 pitches in his last three starts, with six days' rest.
    • Season SwStr% is below the brief's 12% prime-over benchmark, so the edge leans on recent form and matchup.
  3. Arizona Diamondbacks F5 total over 5.5 (first 5 innings)
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tanner Gordon: 1.77 L5 WHIP and 6.84 L5 ERA; Eduardo Rodriguez: 1.36 L5 WHIP, both reads support early scoring.
    • F5 run inputs combine to 5.57 before Coors adjustment; park-factor-runs is 117, with both posted lineups captured 1-9.
    • Rodriguez is the better starter; his 4.39 L5 ERA and 1.19 profile WHIP can suppress Arizona's scoring.
  4. Colorado Rockies team total over 2.5Favorite
    +41%Won

    Taken at 71¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchor fit: Arizona is about a 95% live full-game winner; the game is already 6-0 in the top of the 2nd.
    • Sharp reference has the live total at 15.5, while Polymarket US prices over 11.5 at 90¢: the scoring environment is extremely high.
    • 2026 MLB totals are right-skewed (9.19 mean, 9 median, 15 at the 90th percentile); a 15.5-centered fit leaves Colorado 3+ runs near 75, 80%.
    • Total and moneyline anchors do not uniquely identify the Arizona/Colorado run split; the fitted team allocation is approximate.
  5. Arizona Diamondbacks over 5.5 runs scored
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona's captured starting lineup has five left/switch hitters against confirmed RHP Tanner Gordon.
    • Arizona owns a .328 xwOBA and 20.1% K rate versus right-handers; Gordon allows a .368 xwOBA.
    • Gordon's season ERA is 6.33 and his last-five-start ERA is 6.12; Coors Field carries a 117 run factor.
    • Arizona's last-15-day versus-R xwOBA is .316, below its .328 season split; recent form is not a second boost.
  6. Total runs under 9.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle 10: over −107 / under −105; devigged under fair is 49.8%.
    • No-push inversion gives 10.02 fair runs; Rockies vs L xwOBA .2856 adds −0.50, capped at −0.40 Partial.
    • Arizona vs R xwOBA .3125 adds 0; bullpen thresholds miss: COL 9.0 and AZ 5.67 IP over three days.
    • Derived-reference margin is narrow: the 2.9-point model/quote gap is only 0.1p inside the 3-point limit.
Show all 22 picks
  1. Pavin Smith hits over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pavin bats fifth, projected 4.3 PA; 2026 vs RHP: 15 hits in 99 PA (.152), with .2844 xwOBA.
    • Season contact quality is weak: .175 AVG, .2737 xwOBA, .2128 hard-hit rate across 109 PA.
    • Colorado's 117 run park factor raises overall hit and scoring variance.
  2. Arizona Diamondbacks first-five to win (first 5 innings)
    +57%Won

    Taken at −174 on FanDuel

    PuddinsPOP F5 MLBUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent fair probability 67% (fair price about −203) versus 59.9% devigged market probability.
    • Rodriguez: 2.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 4.30 xERA, 5.93 innings and 96 pitches per start.
    • Gordon: 6.01 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 4.82 xERA, only 4.73 innings and 80.8 pitches per start.
    • Rodriguez's 4.30 xERA and 5.94 L3 ERA leave meaningful regression risk despite the surface edge.
  3. Ezequiel Tovar under 0.5 RBIFavorite
    +27%Won

    Taken at −367 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8 of Tovar's last 10 games stayed under 0.5 RBI (80%), meeting the hard recent-rate gate.
    • 2026 vs LHP xwOBA is .2484 versus a .3093 league split average, 19.7% lower.
    • Confirmed in the starting lineup batting ninth, limiting RBI opportunities.
    • The recent hit rate is exactly the 80% minimum, not a 90% table-banger.
  4. Game total runs over 10.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at +108 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 11.6 runs; fair total line 11.5; Over 10.5 win probability 61.4%; push probability 0% (inputs locked 1:40 PM CDT).
    • Coors Field carries a 117 runs park factor; conditions were 70°F with an open roof and 8-mph wind in from center.
    • Tanner Gordon owns a 4.82 xERA and .335 xwOBA allowed; Arizona's lineup has a .3125 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
    • Eduardo Rodriguez has a 2.89 ERA, 4.30 xERA, and could suppress Arizona's stronger scoring component.
  5. Eduardo Rodriguez over 5.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi

    K’sUp 9% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 5.8 Ks from 24.95 TBF and a 60/40 recent-season K-rate blend.
    • Rodriguez has 30 Ks in his last five starts (9.42 K/9), versus 6.86 season K/9.
    • Only 4 of Rodriguez's last 10 starts reached six strikeouts; count variance remains meaningful.
  6. Eduardo Rodriguez 5+ strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Form supports the rung: 9.72 K/9 over his last three starts, 9.42 over five; 30 Ks in the last five and 54 in the last ten.
    • Rung comparison: 5+ YES at 52¢ beats Rodriguez 4+ YES at 71¢ and 6+ YES at 37¢ after applying the 1.5-K YES separation gate; 5+ NO and 6+ NO are priced against the projection.
    • The lineup is favorable but below the 27% elite-YES tier, and Coors can create extra contact and shorter at-bats.
  7. Tanner Gordon under 14.5 outs recorded
    +85%Won

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 14.5 outs requires five innings; Gordon averages 13.1 outs/start this season (100.3 IP across 23 starts).
    • His last three starts produced 9, 12, and 14 outs; L3 average is 11.7 outs.
    • L3 workload is 21.7 pitches/IP, while velocity is +0.72 mph and fastball spin +15 rpm versus season baseline: stable stuff, not fabricated decay.
    • The 112-pitch bullpen load can still encourage Schaeffer to extend Gordon through a clean fifth inning.
  8. Arizona Diamondbacks run line +1Favorite
    +35%Won

    Taken at 74¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona +1 pushes on an exact one-run loss; Arizona +1.5 wins that same result.
    • ProphetX priced Arizona +1 at −290 (74.36¢) versus Arizona +1.5 at −345 (77.53¢): only a 3.17¢ step-up for removing the push outcome.
    • American-price implied cents are not a complete fair-value calculation when pushes refund stake; the 3.17¢ gap is a narrow rule-based comparison.
  9. Game total over 9.5 runs
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tanner Gordon: 6.01 ERA, 1.55 WHIP; his last three starts produced 18 earned runs in 11 innings.
    • Coors Field carries a 117 run-factor; Colorado's bullpen logged 9.0 innings and 112 pitches over three days.
    • Arizona's posted lineup owns a .3125 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching, Gordon's side of the matchup.
    • Eduardo Rodriguez has a 2.89 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, creating a credible Arizona run-suppression path.
  10. Gabriel Moreno over 1.5 total bases
    +76%Won

    Taken at −131 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7 of Moreno's last 10 games cleared 1.5 total bases.
    • 2026 vs RHP: .318 average, .497 SLG, and .3585 xwOBA over 386 PA.
    • Tanner Gordon allows a .3684 xwOBA and 1.91 HR/9 this season.
    • Ten-game form is a small sample and can regress sharply.
  11. Eduardo Rodriguez over 16.5 outs
    +78%Won

    Taken at −128 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated fair probability 63%; DraftKings −128 implies a 56.1% break-even rate, a +6.9-point edge.
    • Rodriguez recorded 17+ outs in 7 of his last 10 starts.
    • His 2026 workload is 5.92 innings and 95.97 pitches per start, or roughly 17.8 outs.
    • His last five starts cleared 16.5 outs only twice, including two recent 16-out outings.
  12. Tanner Gordon 4+ strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last 10 starts: 5 of 10 reached 4+, averaging 3.6 Ks, 4.7 IP, and 22.3 batters faced.
    • Arizona has a 20% K rate versus right-handed pitching across 4,529 PA; Gordon's first-three-TTO K rates are 16%, 19.4%, and 16.7% over 166 PA.
    • Estimated strikeout mass: 0-2 Ks 16%, 3 Ks 32%, 4 Ks 22%, 5 Ks 16%, 6 Ks 8%, 7+ Ks 6%.
    • The 10-start empirical hit rate is only 50%; the model adds roughly two points for the matchup, so the margin is not large.
  13. Arizona Diamondbacks first-three-innings winner
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted lineup is confirmed: Arizona's first six are Nootbaar, Marte, Moreno, Perdomo, Smith and Arenado; Arizona's vs-R team proxy is .3125 xwOBA with a 20% K rate.
    • Arizona's middle-order split profile remains stronger through hitters 4-6, keeping this an F3-specific read rather than a top-three-only RFI transfer.
    • The full-game total is NOT a valid reference for this first-three-inning question: it answers a different inning distribution involving later fatigue and bullpen innings.
    • Colorado's middle order can still win the early segment; individual split coverage is incomplete, so team proxies carry uncertainty.
  14. First inning runs
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted top six are Nootbaar/Marte/Moreno and McCarthy/Norby/Goodman; both first frames feature the actual announced order.
    • Gordon’s 2026 first-inning line is .302 BA with 6 HR in 70 PA; Rodriguez is .276 BA with 2 HR in 144 PA.
    • Full-game total is NOT a valid RFI reference: it prices different innings, middle/bottom orders, starter fatigue, and bullpen innings.
    • Team split proxies are not batter-specific first-time-through xwOBA, and the individual sample is limited.
  15. Arizona Diamondbacks F5 to win (first 5 innings)High conviction
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Five FramesUp 9% over 37 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Gone-by-six fires for Arizona: Colorado starter Tanner Gordon's current 2026 L5 WHIP 1.77 and ERA 6.84.
    • Current 2026 L5 workload is viable: Eduardo Rodriguez 28.67 IP/5, Gordon 23.67 IP/5; posted lineups have batting orders 1-9.
    • Most likely loss: Colorado's top of the order overcomes Rodriguez's 1.36 L5 WHIP early at Coors before five.
  16. Nolan Arenado over 1.5 total bases
    +103%Won

    Taken at +103 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3.2 total bases per game over his last five, versus a 1.5 line.
    • Arenado cleared 1.5 total bases in 4 of his last 5 and 6 of his last 10.
    • Arizona's .3125 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching supports the matchup against Tanner Gordon.
    • The five-game sample includes a seven-total-base outlier on September 22.

Questions

Who won Diamondbacks vs. Rockies?

The Diamondbacks won 12-8 on Thursday, Sep 24, 2026.

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