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FinalGlobe Life Field
Mets73-85
1-3
Rangers78-80
Score by period
Team123456789T
NYM1000000001
TEX20000100-3

Top model pick, graded

Won

Brett Baty hits over 0.5 57¢

Why Quiet Bat likes it: Posted lineup has Baty batting fifth; projected 4.0 PA.

Quiet BatUp 12% return this season · 114 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 9-11 on this game · −22% return

  1. New York Mets to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, Fade the Arm +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • 2026 run differential favors New York slightly, −33 to Texas −42; pythagorean rates are .478 vs .472.
    • Confirmed Zac Thornton: 3.40 ERA/1.13 WHIP; Kumar Rocker: 4.47 ERA/1.42 WHIP.
    • Texas has home field and the better current record: 78-80 versus New York 73-85.
    Fade the Arm
    • His recent fastball average is 93.45 mph over five starts versus a 93.69-mph prior baseline, a measurable drift.
    • Rocker's last-five line is 3.27 ERA and 10.23 K/9, so his recent results are better than the vulnerability signal.
    Deep Book
    • LEAN. Sharp reference is not corroboration. Pinnacle favors Texas −126. Stake is 0.5 units.
    • Texas is the sharp-reference favorite at −126. The exchange flow may be wrong; this is not a RECOMMENDED signal.
  2. Kumar Rocker over 4.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +124 on FanDuel

    2 modelsBello, Señor Strikeouts
    Why 2 models like it
    Bello
    • Rocker’s last three starts: 20.0 pitches/IP, but 11.12 K/9 and 14 strikeouts across 11.33 innings.
    • Recent velocity is +1.14 mph and spin +32 rpm versus 2026 baseline: stable stuff, no decay discount.
    • He has cleared 4.5 strikeouts in only 2 of his last 5 starts and 8 of 26 season starts.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • 11.12 K/9 over his last 3 starts and 10.23 over his last 5.
    • Rocker is a listed starter on six days' rest, averaging 83.46 pitches per start.
    • The recent K surge is a five-start sample and could regress.
  3. New York Mets F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Mets top-three xwOBA .357 vs Texas .341 and K rate .174 vs .224 against the listed starters' hands.
    • Thornton L5 WHIP 1.14 versus Rocker 1.46; the 1.46 home WHIP fires the away Gone-by-Six signal.
    • Fair three-way F5: Mets 47%, Texas 37%, draw 16%; venue devigged Mets 39.6% from 0.40/0.61; gap 7.4p.
    • Rocker's 22 L5 innings equal 4.4 per start, below the 4.7 workload marker and forcing a tier downgrade.
  4. Texas Rangers over 4.5 team runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Texas win anchor is about 55%; full-game total anchor is 8.5 runs.
    • 2023, 26 empirical games totaling 8, 9 runs put home teams over 4.5 at 52.1% across 1,670 games.
    • The venue charges 45¢ for Texas over 4.5, the largest coherent team-total gap from the anchors.
    • The 52.1% estimate conditions on total only; today’s team-specific scoring shape can differ.
  5. New York Mets over 3.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 50%-implied team-total rungs are Mets 3.5 and Texas 3.5, summing to 7.0 runs versus Kalshi's 8.5 game-total rung: a 1.5-run fire above the stated 1.0-run tolerance.
    • Mets' side is the more plausible carrier: Rocker is confirmed at 4.47 ERA/1.42 WHIP, while New York's 2026 xwOBA versus right-handers is .3417.
    • The coherence fire identifies a contradiction, not which team-total contract is wrong; assigning it to New York is a directional judgment.
  6. Total runs over 9.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle 9.5 reference is Over +156 / Under −182, devigging to 37.7% Over.
    • Ledger: Mets +0.00 runs (xwOBA .3205 vs RHP); Rangers +0.00 (.3163 vs LHP); bullpens +0.00 (5.0/8.67 IP, 0 b2b).
    • Partial coverage: both starters are confirmed and lineups are 9/9, but both profile saber_is_complete flags are false.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Brett Baty hits over 0.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted lineup has Baty batting fifth; projected 4.0 PA.
    • Same-event DraftKings hits −136/+102 devig to 53.8%; model is 62%, a +8.2-point gap.
    • Globe Life Field roof is closed with 98 run and 92 HR park factors, a mild environment drag.
  2. Justin Foscue under 0.5 RBIsFavoriteHigh conviction
    +32%Won

    Taken at −312 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • −312 DraftKings price clears the strict −300 to −1000 chalk gate.
    • Foscue recorded 0 RBIs in 9 of his last 10 games.
    • His .1728 average versus right-handed pitching is 28.8% below the .243 league average.
    • One RBI ends the prop; a single hit with runners aboard is enough to lose.
  3. New York Mets total runs over 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 9.1 total runs; fair total line 9.0; Over 8.5 win probability 56%; push probability 0% (model snapshot 1:05 PM CDT).
    • Texas bullpen logged 160 pitches and 8.67 innings over the prior three days, versus 78 pitches and 5.0 innings for New York.
    • Rocker owns a 4.60 xERA and .328 xwOBA allowed; Thornton's 4.63 xERA materially exceeds his 3.40 ERA, signaling regression risk.
    • Globe Life Field is roof-closed with a 0.92 run park factor, limiting carry and run environment.
  4. Zach Thornton 4+ strikeouts
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

    K’sUp 9% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed LHP starter: 14 starts, 6.69 season K/9; current L3/L5 K/9 are 7.0 and 7.14.
    • Thornton cleared 3+ Ks in 7 of his last 10 starts; that sample covers 231 batters faced.
    • Last-10 sample is only 231 PA; removing the seven-K outing leaves 6 of 9 starts at 4+ Ks.
  5. Kumar Rocker strikeouts over 6Favorite
    +35%Won

    Taken at 74¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi ladder: Rocker 4+ YES/NO 62¢/39¢, 5+ 43¢/59¢, 6+ 28¢/74¢; 6+ NO is the best insulated rung.
    • Equivalent sportsbook 6+ prices were Over 5.5: +214 DK, +255 FD, +260 BetMGM, +210 BetRivers, +230 Fanatics.
    • Recent last-five output was 25 Ks in 23.0 innings, so a strikeout spike can still beat the under.
  6. First-inning total over 0.5 runs
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Base first-inning scoreless rates imply roughly 50% YRFI before matchup adjustment.
    • Rocker has allowed .356 xwOBA to lefties; Mets lead with Lindor, Soto, and Benge batting left/switch.
    • Thornton has a 4.03 L5 ERA and .344 xwOBA allowed to righties; Texas leads four hitters with three righties.
    • Rocker's L5 K9 is 10.23 and his L5 ERA is 3.27, so missed bats can preserve NRFI.
  7. Game total under 9
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 9 wins at 0, 8 runs, pushes at exactly 9, and loses at 10+; under 9.5 wins at 9.
    • ProphetX quotes under 9 at 59.02¢ (−144) versus under 9.5 at 63.24¢ (−172): only a 4.22-point gap.
    • The whole-number rung appears to under-credit its push option relative to the adjacent half-point rung.
    • A push returns stake rather than producing profit, so the option is protection rather than a win.
  8. Josh Jung over 1.5 total bases
    +127%Won

    Taken at +127 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • +127 implies 44.1%; matchup model makes the over 53%, an 8.9-point value margin.
    • Jung cleared 1.5 total bases in 6 of his last 10 games.
    • Against left-handed pitching, Jung owns a .347 average, .490 SLG and .371 xwOBA.
    • The batting order is not posted yet; the current board and roster list him active, but a late scratch remains possible.
  9. Kumar Rocker over 12.5 outs
    +85%Won

    Taken at −118 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated true probability 62%; DraftKings −118 breaks even at 54.1%, a +7.9-point edge.
    • Established workload: 14 starts, 80.5 pitches per start and 4.59 innings per start.
    • Texas bullpen entered with 69 pitches and 4.67 innings over the last three days, supporting a longer leash.
  10. Kumar Rocker 5 or more strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 14 of 26 2026 starts reached 5+ K (0.54); the estimate uses the observed innings/K joint distribution, not a six-inning point estimate.
    • Rocker averaged 4.82 IP and 83.46 pitches per start; his latest five starts averaged 4.4 IP and 82.4 pitches.
    • The 2026 TTO sample is 125/122/137 PA with K rates of 18.4%/23.8%/18.3%; a clean third-time-through penalty is not established.
  11. Texas Rangers to winHigh conviction
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    UndertowUp 2% over 123 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Only one open MLB position was shown, on Texas; no direct both-sides holding was observed.
    • Texas starter Kumar Rocker carries a 4.47 ERA and 1.42 WHIP; command failure can erase the side.

Questions

Who won Mets vs. Rangers?

The Rangers won 3-1 on Thursday, Sep 24, 2026.

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