Updated
FinalUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSan Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers first-five total under 4.5 (first 5 innings) 50¢
Why Ledger Balance likes it: 8.5-run full-game total anchor implies roughly 4.25 runs through five before the starter-quality adjustment.
Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-4 on this game · −22% return
- San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers first-five total under 4.5 (first 5 innings)+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 8.5-run full-game total anchor implies roughly 4.25 runs through five before the starter-quality adjustment.
- Two confirmed probable starters are the live participant inputs; the F5 window is the lower-scoring slice before bullpens dominate.
- 2023, 25 MLB final scores averaged 8.79, 9.23 runs, with medians of 8, 9; the 8.5 anchor is not an inflated run environment.
- A first-five multi-run inning can erase the roughly half-run cushion immediately.
- No 9th-inning draw−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on Polymarket US
Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Liquid anchors imply ~70.8% Dodgers win probability and an 8.5-run scoring environment.
- 18,252 MLB finals show a right-skewed total distribution centered near 9 runs; 8.5 implies roughly 0.94 runs per inning.
- Flat-rate anchor fit makes a single-inning draw roughly 55%, so non-draw outcomes are near 45%.
- Bullpen usage and late-game scoring can make the ninth materially different from the flat-rate baseline.
- Los Angeles Dodgers over 4.5 team runs−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed Dodgers lineup has Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy and four left/switch hitters against confirmed lefty Matt Wilkinson.
- The 1.5-run coherence drift does not identify which of the game or team-total markets is wrong.
- Game total over 7.5 runs−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US
Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days - Los Angeles Dodgers −1 run line+52%Won
Taken at 66¢ on ProphetX
House RulesUp 2% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Rule: Dodgers −1 pushes on exactly a one-run Dodgers win; Dodgers −1.5 loses on that same margin.
- ProphetX prices Dodgers −1 at 65.75¢ versus Dodgers −1.5 at 54.13¢: only an 11.62-point gap.
- A Dodgers win by two or more is required for a full win; a loss or tie-equivalent outcome loses.
- First-inning run+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket
Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Model fair probability: 56% YRFI versus 50.5¢ live Polymarket price, a roughly 5.5-point edge.
- Confirmed Dodgers top four: Betts, Edman, Teoscar Hernández, Freeman; Los Angeles posted a .326 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching.
- Matt Wilkinson has only 19.2 MLB innings and a 4.58 ERA; his recent workload was just 3.0, 2.0, and 3.0 innings.
- Wilkinson's last two cited starts were scoreless; the recent sample could understate his true talent.
Show all 7 picks
- San Francisco Giants–Los Angeles Dodgers game total over 7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket
The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Matt Wilkinson’s current Statcast line shows 4.27 xERA, .318 xwOBA allowed and a 4.58 ERA over 19.2 innings.
- Confirmed Dodgers lineup includes Betts, Teoscar Hernández, Freeman and Muncy; 77°F with 8-mph wind out to center and a 111 HR park factor.
- Conflict Pass passed: no approved opposing angle; the weak-pitcher fade points toward Dodgers scoring rather than against the over.
- Jack Dreyer’s .257 xwOBA allowed and San Francisco’s .293 xwOBA versus lefties create a real low-scoring path.
Questions
Who won Giants vs. Dodgers?
The Dodgers won 3-1 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.