App StoreGoogle Play

Updated

FinalOriole Park at Camden Yards
Blue Jays77-79
3-4
Orioles75-81
Score by period
Team123456789T
TOR3000000003
BAL10000102-4

Top model pick, graded

Won

Trey Yesavage pitcher strikeouts under 3.5 −142

Why K-Zone Fade likes it: Yesavage is returning from injury with a reported 45-50 pitch, roughly three-inning cap.

K-Zone FadeEven this season · 237 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 8-11 on this game · −22% return

  1. Toronto Blue Jays to win4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    4 modelsAlex's Sharp Line Scanner, Drift +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Alex's Sharp Line Scanner
    • Trey Yesavage's slate xERA is 3.38 versus Shane Baz's 4.18.
    • Toronto's season FIP is 3.26 versus Baltimore's 4.14.
    • Yesavage returned from the injured list on September 20, creating meaningful workload and effectiveness uncertainty.
    Drift
    • Toronto's 2026 team FIP is 3.26 versus Baltimore's 4.14; both starters are confirmed right-handed.
    • Yesavage profile: .2849 xwOBA and 10.29 K/9; Baz profile: .3056 xwOBA and 9.52 K/9.
    • Baltimore is at home and has the fresher bullpen: 3.0 IP/56 pitches over three days versus Toronto's 6.0 IP/110.
    Selective Pressure
    • Own matchup read is approximately 55% Toronto, above the 50¢ entry price.
    • Toronto vs RHP: .266 AVG, .431 SLG, .340 xwOBA, 16.4% K rate.
    • Toronto’s bullpen has worked 6.0 innings and thrown 110 pitches over three days, versus Baltimore’s 3.0 and 56.
    Fade the Arm
    • Shane Baz's TTO xwOBA rises .258/.261 (first/second) to .368 (third), a major late-order decay signal.
    • Cashing likelihood: moderate; Baz's third-time contact spike and Toronto's low strikeout rate are the two main drivers.
    • Baz's season xFIP is 3.88, CSW is 62.3% and fastball velocity is 95.26 mph; baseline skill can erase TTO risk.
  2. Trey Yesavage over 3.5 strikeouts3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +112 on FanDuel

    3 modelsSeñor Strikeouts, Picks with pink pro reader +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Yesavage's latest rolling sample shows 12.96 K/9 over three starts and 13.50 K/9 over five.
    • FanDuel's +112 is plus-money on a 3.5-K line against a high-whiff pitcher facing a high-K opponent.
    • The warehouse has no 2026 game logs for Yesavage, so current-season form and exact workload are unverified.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Model estimates 56% for four-plus strikeouts versus 44.4% implied by BetMGM +125.
    • Yesavage's 2025 regular-season baseline was 10.29 K/9 with 4.67 innings per start.
    • His three 2025 regular-season starts create a thin workload sample.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • FanDuel +112 implies 47.4%; estimated fair probability is approximately 68%, a +20.6-point edge.
    • The pitcher sample is only 14 innings and the warehouse's latest performance data is labeled 2025, not 2026.
  3. Game first-five total under 3.5 (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline anchor is essentially balanced at ~50/50; full-game total anchor is centered near 7.5 runs, giving a coherent low-to-moderate scoring baseline.
    • 2025 completed MLB sample (2,430 games) was right-skewed: mean 8.89, median 8; the fit avoids an unjustified symmetric scoring assumption.
    • Applying the 7.5-run anchor to the starter-heavy first five lowers the expected window to roughly 3.3, 3.5 runs.
    • The full-game anchors do not uniquely determine the first-five run split; the 3.3, 3.5 estimate is structurally inferred, not a team projection.
  4. No 9th-inning drawLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ML anchors are essentially even (~50/50), while the full-game total is 7.5; the fitted picture is an even game near 7.5 runs.
    • Across the inning ladder, draw prices are mostly 55, 63¢; the 9th-inning draw jumps to 74¢, an internal-coherence outlier.
    • A 2026 warehouse sample found 9th-inning ties in 40% of seven complete ninths; the sample is small but below the venue's 74¢ quote.
    • The empirical ninth-inning sample is only seven complete innings from 15 current-season games; variance is substantial.
  5. Trey Yesavage pitcher strikeouts under 3.5
    +70%Won

    Taken at −142 on FanDuel

    K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Yesavage is returning from injury with a reported 45-50 pitch, roughly three-inning cap.
    • The unchanged 3.5 strikeout line does not appear to reflect that sharply reduced workload; FanDuel offers −142.
    • Yesavage's small 2026 sample carries a strong 10.29 K/9, so efficiency could produce four strikeouts quickly.
  6. Shane Baz over 3.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Baz has 152 strikeouts in 173.0 innings over 30 starts: 7.9 K/9.
    • Confirmed Toronto nine-man lineup; Baz is scheduled for his 31st normal start, not an opener.
    • Model projects 4.4 strikeouts and 64% for 4+, a 0.9-K gap over the 3.5 line.
    • Baz had only 2, 5 and 6 strikeouts in his last three starts; recent variance is wide.
Show all 15 picks
  1. Game total over 7.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −102 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 8.0 projected runs; fair total 8.0; Over 7.5 win probability 54%; push probability 0%; locked at 5:05 PM CDT.
    • Toronto's 2025 production versus right-handed pitching: .3405 team xwOBA and .4308 SLG across 4,709 PA.
    • The 2026 individual hitter profiles are extremely thin, mostly 1-5 PA, so lineup-level Statcast estimates are uncertain.
  2. Toronto Blue Jays first-five spread +0.5 (first 5 innings)
    +65%Won

    Taken at −155 on BetMGM

    Familiar FaceUp 14% over 104 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Away SP Trey Yesavage: .2265 TTOP2 xwOBA against over 26 PA.
    • Home SP Shane Baz: .3676 TTOP3 xwOBA against over 142 PA.
    • BetMGM posts Toronto +0.5 at −155 on the standard first-five spread.
    • Yesavage's TTOP2 sample is only 26 PA, so one poor early inning can dominate.
  3. Trey Yesavage 4+ strikeouts: No
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2.5-K projection: the reported 45, 50-pitch cap after knee surgery is roughly three innings.
    • Confirmed Toronto lineup's known 2025 right-handed split proxy is 14.3% K (373/2,615 PA); three hitters lack a meaningful split sample.
    • Yesavage is returning from knee surgery, with the live warehouse showing a 2026-09-20 IL-return date and no active IL listing.
    • A pitch-count expansion or unusually efficient outing could let him reach four innings and four strikeouts.
  4. Game total under 8.5 runs
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • No same-line sharp reference: live Pinnacle offered 7.5 only, not 8.5; this is a Tier 3 no-sharp-reference play.
    • Most likely loss: Trey Yesavage and Shane Baz both avoid early damage, keeping the game at eight runs or fewer.
  5. Game total under 7.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX gap is only 6.07 points: under 7.5 at 52.15¢ versus under 7 at 46.08¢.
    • The whole-number under 7 has a favorable push at 7, so the two prices are not perfectly interchangeable.
  6. Baltimore Orioles −1
    0%Push

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Orioles −1 pushes on exactly a one-run Baltimore win; it wins by 2+ and loses otherwise.
    • ProphetX prices Orioles −1 at +152 (39.68¢) versus Orioles −1.5 at +205 (32.79¢), a 6.89-point gap.
    • Probable starters are verified, but late lineup or pitching changes could alter the underlying margin distribution.
  7. Coby Mayo under 0.5 hits
    +116%Won

    Taken at +116 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates 73% no-hit probability versus 46.3% implied by DraftKings +116.
    • Mayo hit .2167 over 294 2025 regular-season plate appearances; current-season sample is only four PA.
    • Trey Yesavage allowed .2849 xwOBA in 2025, 19.4th percentile among 635 profiled pitchers.
    • Camden Yards' 104 home-run factor is mildly hitter-friendly.
  8. Toronto Blue Jays first-five to win (first 5 innings)
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on BetMGM

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 56% independent F5 cash estimate versus 51.2% break-even at BetMGM −105.
    • Shane Baz carries a 4.18 expected ERA and .315 expected wOBA allowed in the current preview.
    • Trey Yesavage projects at 3.38 expected ERA and .285 expected wOBA allowed.
    • Yesavage's regular-season profile contains only 14.0 innings, making the F5 estimate sample-sensitive.
  9. Total runs under 7.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle reference is under −113 versus over +100. The moneyline and run-line boards are materially less directional.
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-21 15:02:19 PDT. Price band passes; this is a LEAN, not a recommended play.
    • A 3.38 xERA Trey Yesavage versus Shane Baz's 4.18 xERA does not independently establish a low-total projection.

Questions

Who won Blue Jays vs. Orioles?

The Orioles won 4-3 on Monday, Sep 21, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.