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FinalFenway Park
Guardians81-75
3-2
Red Sox84-72
Score by period
Team123456789T
CLE0200000013
BOS0100000102

Top model pick, graded

Won

Cleveland Guardians F5 winner (first 5 innings) 37¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: Home Payton Tolle's L5 WHIP 1.65 and ERA 7.84 fire the Gone by Six away signal; ERA threshold is 4.50.

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 15-14 on this game · −7% return

  1. Boston Red Sox to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Fade the Arm
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Power rating 56%: Boston +80 run differential/.557 Pythagorean versus Cleveland +2/.501.
    • Confirmed starters: Tolle 2.66 xERA versus Messick 3.11; Boston LHP xwOBA .3268 versus Cleveland .3079.
    • Messick's 2.57 ERA and .273 xwOBA allowed could outperform his 3.11 xERA signal.
    Fade the Arm
    • Messick's 3.35 xFIP and 3.11 xERA exceed his 2.57 ERA; recent ERA is 3.64 L3 and 2.76 L5.
    • TTO decay, Messick's xwOBA against rises to .294 at TTO4 from .231 at TTO3; Cleveland's bullpen used 104 pitches over 6.33 innings in three days.
    • Most likely loss: Messick reaches six effective innings and suppresses Boston's left-handed platoon advantage before Cleveland's bullpen matters.
  2. Payton Tolle over 5.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +132 on FanDuel

    2 modelsSeñor Strikeouts, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Tolle's last three starts produced 7, 12 and 6 strikeouts; recent K/9 is 12.74 over three starts.
    • He averages 87.6 pitches per start and gets eight days of rest before this outing.
    • Tolle has 38 walks in 143 innings; traffic or command trouble could shorten his outing.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Tolle has cleared 5.5 strikeouts in 9 of his last 10 starts.
    • His current-season strikeout rate is 10.45 K/9, rising to 12.21 K/9 over his last five.
    • Nine-start success in the recent sample can overstate the true strikeout rate.
  3. Cleveland Guardians F5 winner (first 5 innings)High conviction
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Home Payton Tolle's L5 WHIP 1.65 and ERA 7.84 fire the Gone by Six away signal; ERA threshold is 4.50.
    • Cleveland's top three average .334 xwOBA with K rates .095/.130/.145, versus Boston's .328 and .265/.202/.316.
    • Fair Cleveland F5 win probability 44%; venue devigged 36.6% from 0.37 yes / 0.64 no; gap 7.4p.
    • Tolle's season line is stronger than his L5 slump: 3.02 ERA and 10.45 K/9, so a rebound can erase the matchup edge.
  4. No 9th-inning draw
    +213%Won

    Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors imply Boston win probability near 53% and a low total centered around 6.5, 7.0 runs.
    • 2023, 25 MLB finals show a right-skewed scoring shape: 8-run median, 8.97-run mean, with a long 21+ run tail.
    • The 9th-inning draw is priced at 69c, the largest disagreement among the nine inning-draw rungs; sharp reference also has Boston −117 and total 6.0.
    • Low scoring can make 0-0 the modal ninth-inning result, so the draw can still land despite the modeled gap.
  5. Boston Red Sox 7th-inning winner: NoFavorite
    +28%Won

    Taken at 78¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchor fit: Polymarket US implies Boston 54% to win and a low 6.5-run environment, with over 6.5 at 46.5%.
    • In 998 same-season games finishing at seven runs or fewer, the 7th-inning outcome was draw 69%, Boston/home win 14.9%, Cleveland/away win 16%.
    • The fitted low-run distribution puts Boston's 7th-inning win near 15%; the NO contract costs 78c versus roughly 85c fair.
    • The 7th-inning rung is thin; the 998-game low-total calibration is a broad empirical proxy, not a game-specific projection.
  6. Cleveland Guardians over 3.5 team runsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 75¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live anchors agree: Cleveland moneyline 64c and full-game Over 7.5 at 53c on Polymarket US.
    • Sharp reference agrees: current DraftKings Cleveland −192 and Over 7.5 −109.
    • Cleveland leads 2-0 in the bottom of the 2nd, so the target needs only two more Guardians runs.
    • The fitted Cleveland/Boston run split is inferred from two anchors, not a team projection.
Show all 28 picks
  1. Boston Red Sox over 3.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • the selected Kalshi contract re-read at 47¢ for grading, with the venue confirming the exact BOS 3.5-runs rung.
    • Posted Boston lineup owns a .3268 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching; Cleveland starter Parker Messick throws left-handed.
    • Cleveland's relief corps entered with 6.33 innings and 104 pitches over three days, creating a late-inning scoring path.
    • Messick's season profile is strong: 2.57 ERA, 3.11 xERA, and .273 xwOBA allowed.
  2. Payton Tolle over 14.5 outs recordedHigh conviction
    +63%Won

    Taken at −160 on BetMGM

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 27% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 16.9 outs with a 77% clear probability; BetMGM −160 implies 61.5%.
    • Last five starts: 15, 16, 17, 18, 18 outs; 16.8 average on 95.6 pitches.
    • Season: 17.16 outs, 21 of 25 starts clearing 14.5; Boston starters under Tracy averaged 15.76 outs.
    • Boston’s bullpen is exceptionally fresh: zero innings yesterday and 12 pitches over the prior three days.
  3. Cleveland Guardians and Boston Red Sox over 6.5 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +104 on FanDuel

    Alex's Sharp Line ScannerUp 28% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cleveland's bullpen has logged 6.33 innings and 104 pitches over the last three days.
    • Boston's lineup owns a .327 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching; both listed starters throw left-handed.
    • Fenway's 106 park run factor and Ramon De Jesus's 8.28 average umpire game total support scoring.
    • The sharp total moved down from 7 to 6, signaling meaningful market resistance to the over.
  4. Total runs under 6.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PM US under 6.5 costs 54%; OPEN, tradable, both sides quoted, 1.00 sum passes depth check.
    • CLE vs LHP xwOBA .3079 triggers −0.50 runs, capped at −0.40 Partial; BOS is .3268.
    • Partial coverage: both starters are confirmed, but 2026 profile saber_is_complete is false; nine-man lineups are posted.
  5. Payton Tolle under 5.5 strikeouts
    +63%Won

    Taken at −159 on DraftKings

    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 4.6 strikeouts from 23.0 expected batters faced and a 19.6% blended K rate.
    • Confirmed Cleveland lineup is 251 K in 1,406 PA versus lefties: 17.9% lineup K rate.
    • Estimated probability of five or fewer strikeouts is 68%; projection is 0.9 Ks below the 5.5 line.
    • Tolle's full-season K rate is 28.8%, materially above the left-handed matchup estimate.
  6. Steven Kwan hits NO 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full coverage: lineup posted, Kwan bats 1st, projected 4.3 PA; 191 2026 PA vs LHP produced .2298 AVG and 37 hits.
    • Kwan's 0.98 zone-contact rate and 0.11 2026 vs-L whiff rate materially oppose the under.
  7. Nate Eaton under 0.5 RBIFavorite
    +17%Won

    Taken at −573 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • −573 DraftKings price passes the −300 to −1000 extreme-chalk gate.
    • Eaton recorded 0 RBI in 8 of his last 10 games with a plate appearance.
    • His .083 average versus left-handed pitching is 65.6% below the .2414 league split.
    • The favorable platoon split is based on only 31 plate appearances.
  8. Over total 6
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 54% over: 4.16 CLE and 4.35 BOS runs/game, Messick/Tolle xERAs 3.11/2.66, Fenway run factor 1.06.
    • Most likely loss: Messick and Tolle suppress contact, leaving six or fewer runs; 12-mph wind is in from center.
  9. Game total over 6.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +104 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total runs 7.0, fair total line 7.0, win probability 55%, push probability 0% (release 5:15 PM CDT; first pitch 5:45 PM CDT).
    • Boston's .327 team xwOBA versus left-handed pitching and Cleveland's .308 mark support offense despite strong starters.
    • FanDuel's +104 is above the model's fair price on a 6.5-run over.
    • Payton Tolle and Parker Messick carry strong xERAs of 2.66 and 3.11 with strikeout rates above 9 K/9.
  10. Payton Tolle over 3.5 strikeoutsFavorite
    +32%Won

    Taken at −310 on Fanatics

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed starter and posted nine-man Cleveland lineup; Tolle is not on the IL and has no verified pitch cap.
    • Last four starts: 96, 91, 96, 97 pitches; 5.9 projected innings from the 95-pitch average.
    • Season 10.45 K/9; L3/L5 K/9 are 12.74/12.21; last five starts produced 7, 12, 6, 7, 6 strikeouts.
    • An early efficiency loss or a short outing leaves a 4+ contract vulnerable despite 10 consecutive recent starts clearing four Ks.
  11. Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox under 6.5 total runs
    +78%Won

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    cash-first mlb under hunterUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent projection: 5.9 runs; 63% cash probability on Under 6.5 versus roughly 56% FanDuel break-even.
    • Messick and Tolle are confirmed left-handed starters with expected wOBA allowed of .273 and .253, plus xERA marks of 3.11 and 2.66.
    • Confirmed lineups average approximately .308 CLE and .315 BOS xwOBA; Boston's lineup is below its .327 season xwOBA versus lefties.
    • The total already fell sharply from 7/6.5 toward 6/6.5, so the original under cushion is partly priced away at −128.
  12. Cleveland Guardians first-five spread +1.5 (first 5 innings)Favorite
    +33%Won

    Taken at 75¢ on Polymarket US

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  13. First-inning total over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +150 on FanDuel

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed top-four lineups are potent versus left-handed pitching: Cleveland includes José Ramírez and Jo Adell; Boston includes Jahmai Jones and Wilyer Abreu.
    • Fenway's 106 run factor supports scoring; both starters are left-handed and the matchup has fresh lineup confirmation.
    • Messick and Tolle are quality starters: season expected wOBA allowed is .273 and .253, respectively.
  14. Game total over 7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • over 7 wins at 8+ runs and pushes at exactly 7; over 7.5 loses at 7.
    • A final total of exactly 7 is a push, not a win; the option only preserves stake.
  15. Cleveland Guardians run line +1
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • whole-number +1 pushes on a one-run Boston win; adjacent +1.5 wins that outcome.
    • Guardians +1 is 57.98¢ versus 67.21¢ for +1.5, only a 9.23¢ gap.
    • A one-run Boston win returns stake rather than profit; the contract still needs a Guardians win to cash.
  16. Cleveland Guardians to win
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Own read: Cleveland about 49% to win versus a 47¢ executable price.
    • Parker Messick: 2.57 ERA over 178.3 innings; Boston starter Payton Tolle: 3.02 ERA over 143.0 innings.
    • Cleveland is 5-1 in its last six; Boston is 4-5 across its last nine.
    • Boston owns the home field and a .3268 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching, versus Cleveland's .3097 versus right-handed pitching.
  17. Payton Tolle over 14.5 outsFavorite
    +47%Won

    Taken at −211 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 13 of Tolle's last 15 starts cleared 14.5 outs.
    • Season workload is 5.72 IP/start; his last-five workload is 5.89 IP/start.
    • Tolle averages 87.6 pitches/start, supporting a five-inning-plus baseline.
    • Early command trouble or a high-leverage hook can end the outing before five innings.
  18. Parker Messick pitching strikeouts 6+
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10 contracts screened; 0 excluded for missing sides, placeholder bands, or ladder non-monotonicity.
    • Messick’s 30-start innings prior: 3% under 5 IP, 47% at 5, 5.99, 37% at 6, 6.99, 13% at 7+; model P(6+) is approximately 0.49.
    • Confirmed Boston lineup is 180 strikeouts in 955 left-handed matchup PA (18.8%); blended with Messick’s 26.2% pitcher K rate, the innings cap favors the NO side.
    • Messick reached 6+ in 18 of 30 starts, so the empirical base rate is materially above the innings-times-rate model.
  19. First-inning runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • first-inning scoreless rates (.7516 Boston, .7170 Cleveland) imply 46.1% RFI: 1−(.7516×.7170).
    • The posted top threes are strong: Boston xwOBA .3457/.3097/.3295; Cleveland .3277/.3295/.3443.
    • Tolle's first-inning line allows .2366 BA and 4 HR in 99 PA; Messick allows .1429 BA and 2 HR in 112 PA.
    • First-inning samples are limited to 25 games/99 PA for Tolle and 30 games/112 PA for Messick; the scoreless-rate inputs may be noisy.
  20. Cleveland Guardians spread −1
    0%Push

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-22T15:13:02-07:00; 38.17¢ is inside the −250 to +300 American band.
    • Confirmed starters are Parker Messick and Payton Tolle; this is a flow-only LEAN, not a model or sharp-reference recommendation.
    • Boston is 84-72 versus Cleveland 81-75, and Boston's bullpen used 31 pitches over 1.67 innings versus Cleveland's 104 over 6.33.
  21. Game total under 7
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION secondary: Messick/Tolle ERAs are 2.57/3.02; expected wOBA allowed is .273/.253. Both lineups were posted at 1:10 PM PDT.
    • The refill signature is veneered: only 31.4% of under depth is at the best price, with three book levels.
  22. Wilyer Abreu under 0.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +131 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1 hit in his last 5 logged games; under 0.5 hits in 4 of 5.
    • DraftKings +131 implies a 43.3% hit rate; the recent sample is 20%.
    • Left-handed Abreu faces left-handed Parker Messick, who has a 2.57 ERA and 9.39 K/9.
    • Five-game form sample is thin and can be overwhelmed by one well-placed ball.

Questions

Who won Guardians vs. Red Sox?

The Guardians won 3-2 on Tuesday, Sep 22, 2026.

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