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Updated

FinalYankee Stadium
Red Sox87-75
2-9
Yankees93-68
Score by period
Team123456789T
BOS0000011002
NYY00011610-9

Top model pick, graded

Won

Boston Red Sox under 3.5 runs scored 59¢

Why One Side of the Board likes it: raw Kalshi values are fractions; Boston over 3.5 mid is 0.42, or 42¢.

One Side of the BoardDown 1% this season · 214 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 14-15 on this game · +16% return

  1. New York Yankees to win6 models agreeHigh conviction
    +74%Won

    Taken at −136 on FanDuel

    6 modelsAlex's Sharp Line Scanner, MLB ML Deep Dive +4
    Why 6 models like it
    Alex's Sharp Line Scanner
    • Max Fried has a 2.51 xERA and .246 xwOBA allowed; Sonny Gray is at 3.87 xERA and .303 xwOBA allowed.
    • Yankees' bullpen workload is much lighter: 29 pitches and 2.67 innings over three days versus Boston's 215 pitches and 9.33 innings.
    • Boston and New York are both 5-5 over their last 10, so recent-form separation is limited.
    MLB ML Deep Dive
    • Independent estimate 60%; fair line approximately −150 versus FanDuel −136.
    • Max Fried: 2.51 xERA and .246 xwOBA allowed, materially better than Sonny Gray's 3.87 and .303.
    • Judge's absence removes New York's biggest offensive bat, while Boston's lineup also lacks Roman Anthony; the net lineup adjustment is uncertain.
    Drift
    • Max Fried xERA 2.51 versus Sonny Gray 3.87; Yankees also lead season runs/game 4.59 to 4.25.
    • Gray's 2.72 ERA is materially better than his xERA and can erase the starter-quality gap.
    The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    • Independent full-game cashing estimate: 60.5%; −136 implies 57.6% and a roughly −153 fair price.
    • The Yankees hold the starting expected-performance edge: Fried .246 xwOBA allowed and 2.51 xERA versus Gray's .303 and 3.87.
    • Boston's lineup is not weak: its confirmed starters have .3173 PA-weighted xwOBA and .3249 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching.
  2. New York Yankees first-five to win (first 5 innings)2 models agree
    +69%Won

    Taken at −145 on DraftKings

    2 modelsPuddinsPOP F5 MLB, The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    Why 2 models like it
    PuddinsPOP F5 MLB
    • Fried: 2.51 xERA and .246 xwOBA allowed; Gray: 3.87 xERA and .303 xwOBA allowed.
    • Confirmed top-five lineup averages favor New York: .339 xwOBA and 117.5 wRC+ versus Boston's .332 and 113.2.
    • Gray's recent form is stronger: 2.95 ERA over three starts and 2.37 over five versus Fried's 3.18 and 2.73.
    The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    • Independent F5 cashing estimate: 60%; −145 implies a 59.2% break-even rate and a roughly −150 fair price.
    • Sonny Gray: 3.87 xERA and .303 xwOBA allowed versus Max Fried: 2.51 xERA and .246 xwOBA allowed.
    • Gray's season ERA is only 2.72, and his L3/L5 ERAs of 2.95/2.37 are better than his expected-performance warning.
  3. Ryan McMahon under 0.5 hits2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −150 on DraftKings

    2 modelsPicks with pink pro reader, Picks With Pink Grading System
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • 7 of McMahon's last 10 appearances finished hitless.
    • His 2026 batting average is .2134, supporting a low baseline for one-hit markets.
    • McMahon recorded two hits in two of his last four appearances, showing meaningful short-term volatility.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • McMahon went hitless in 7 of his last 10 games; the last-five no-hit rate is 60%.
    • He owns a .193 average and .228 slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching in 2026.
    • Season no-hit rate is only 44.4% across 124 games, so the recent slump can regress.
  4. Boston Red Sox F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fried's season xwOBA allowed is .246 versus Gray's .303; Fried's L5 WHIP is .987 versus Gray's 1.09.
    • Starter matchup clash favors Boston's side: Gray's K-minus-opponent-lineup rate is −2.43 points, while Fried's is +2.70 points.
    • New York's posted top three average .353 xwOBA versus Boston's .343, and Yankees vs RHP L30 xwOBA is .308 versus Boston vs LHP .301.
  5. Boston Red Sox +1.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 66¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline anchor makes New York a modest 56% favorite, not a dominant side.
    • Total anchor is 6.5 with 43.5% over, implying a low-scoring, close-game environment.
    • 2025 MLB baseline: median total was 8, making this market's 6.5 anchor notably suppressive.
    • The fitted distribution is anchor-based, not a team projection; the Yankees can still separate late.
  6. New York Yankees win the 9th inningLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 10¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 55.2% sharp-reference home win anchor supports a Yankees-leaning run share.
    • The 6.5 total and 9th-inning over 0.5 at 32c imply roughly 68-69% 9th-inning draw/no-run mass.
    • Allocating the remaining 31-32% run mass to the 55% home favorite gives roughly 17-18%, above the 10c Yankees quote.
    • A specific inning is highly volatile; the 69c draw quote means a scoreless ninth is the most likely single outcome.
Show all 22 picks
  1. Boston Red Sox–New York Yankees 9th-inning total over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline anchor implies a 55.5% Yankees win probability; full-game total anchor centers the run environment near 6.5.
    • Inning-total quotes run 45c, 39c, 42c, 44c, 42c, 43c, 40c, 40c, then only 32c in inning 9.
    • Boston's bullpen has thrown 9.33 innings and 215 pitches in three days versus New York's 2.67 and 29.
    • A Yankees lead can eliminate the bottom of the ninth, materially reducing this contract's scoring opportunity.
  2. Boston Red Sox under 3.5 runs scored
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • raw Kalshi values are fractions; Boston over 3.5 mid is 0.42, or 42¢.
    • Max Fried is confirmed as the Yankees' left-handed starter: 2.51 xERA, .246 xwOBA allowed, and 0.99 L5 WHIP.
    • Boston's confirmed order averages roughly .311 xwOBA; its bottom three average roughly .282, while Boston's season split versus left-handers is .3168 xwOBA.
    • Yankees bullpen workload is a late-run risk: 19.33 IP and 355 pitches over seven days, despite zero back-to-back relievers.
  3. Max Fried under 5.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fried averages 84.8 pitches per start, below the 88-pitch hook threshold.
    • Scott Barry's Fried fit is negative (−0.00 called-strike delta), adding no obvious strikeout boost.
    • Fried's 8.31 season K/9 and 9.0 L3 K/9 are strong; there is no qualifying decline trend.
  4. New York Yankees −1.5
    +158%Won

    Taken at +158 on FanDuel

    Alex's Sharp Line ScannerUp 28% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • New York's starter projection is materially stronger: Fried .246 xwOBA allowed versus Gray .303, with the Yankees also holding the home-field edge.
    • Boston's bullpen has thrown 9.33 innings and 215 pitches in three days, versus 2.67 innings and 29 pitches for New York.
    • The run-line market showed more than 15 cents of intraday price movement while holding Yankees −1.5; current FanDuel +158 is the selected price.
    • A one-run Yankees win loses despite the moneyline edge; run-line variance is materially higher.
  5. Sonny Gray over 4.5 strikeouts
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US

    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 5.8 strikeouts and 67% probability of 5+; 1.3-K separation from the 4.5 equivalent line.
    • Gray's last five starts averaged 6.1 innings and 90.8 pitches; season workload is 29 starts and 169 innings.
    • Scott Barry's pitcher fit is a modest −0.47 percentage-point called-strike adjustment, already included in the projection.
    • Cody Bellinger and Luis García Jr. are low-strikeout lineup pieces, creating contact-driven downside.
  6. Sonny Gray over 14.5 outs recorded
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    Pesto ChangeupUp 9% over 82 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 regular-starter usage is 25 of 29 starts at 15+ outs and 22 of 29 at 18+; last five formal starts were 15, 19, 18, 21, 15 outs. Efficiency is 14.64 pitches/IP, 85.31 pitches/start, 5.83 IP/start.
    • Tagged risks before verdicts: G2, Scott Barry's fit_z is −2.56 with fit_cs_delta −0.00, a count-inflating zone that can cost a low-whiff arm roughly one turn, up to 3 outs. None, the 5-start sample is small and one early command/contact failure can turn the projection into 14 outs; the neutral .3253 Yankees xwOBA supplies no Law 3 out boost.
  7. Trevor Story over 0.5 strikeoutsFavorite
    +24%Won

    Taken at −418 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8 of Story's last 10 games included a strikeout; 13 total Ks in that span.
    • Story has struck out in 27 of 76 plate appearances versus left-handers this season (35.5%).
    • Story is confirmed batting eighth; Max Fried is the confirmed opposing left-handed starter.
    • Two of the last 10 games produced no strikeout; one early contact-heavy plate appearance can lose it.
  8. New York Yankees win the 7th inningLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 21¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Yankees are 47¢ in the F5 winner and 55% in the full-game moneyline, but only 21¢ in the 7th.
    • Conditional on a non-draw, the 7th is nearly even: Yankees 21¢ versus Boston 20¢; inning 1 gives New York a 26¢, 19¢ edge.
    • Boston's bullpen has thrown 215 pitches and 9.33 innings in three days versus New York's 29 pitches and 2.67 innings.
    • Draw is priced at 62¢, so the modal outcome and the inning's low scoring create substantial variance.
  9. Game total under 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +102 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 6.1 total runs, fair total line 6.0, Under 6.5 win probability 55.8%, push probability 0% (model snapshot 6:30 PM CDT).
    • Max Fried: 2.51 xERA and .246 xwOBA allowed; Boston's right-heavy lineup faces the stronger starter.
    • Sonny Gray allows .303 xwOBA with a 3.87 xERA; the Yankees' lineup carries a .325 xwOBA versus right-handers.
    • Boston's bullpen has thrown 78 pitches over three days, creating late-inning over risk if Gray exits early.
  10. Max Fried over 6 pitching strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4.8-K projection: 5.52 projected IP, blended 8.8 K/9, and 0.89 lineup adjustment.
    • Fried’s recent form is strong but not explosive: 9.00 L3 K/9, 8.54 L5 K/9, 25 Ks in his last five starts.
    • Last-four workloads are 97, 88, 80, and 72 pitches; three cleared 80 with none below 70.
    • A sixth-inning workload outcome can still produce six Ks despite Boston’s contact-oriented lineup.
  11. Game first-inning runs over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed top-four orders are posted; Yankees’ first four carry roughly .317-.400 xwOBA versus RHP.
    • Boston’s first four versus LHP carry roughly .317-.419 xwOBA; both platoon top orders exceed team baselines.
    • Fried and Gray have 72.1% and 75.5% first-inning scoreless rates, but top-order quality offsets part of that suppression.
    • The pitcher-first-inning baseline alone implies only about 45.6% YRFI before lineup adjustment.
  12. Boston Red Sox run line +1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 1% last 30 days
  13. Sonny Gray outs 15+
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Gray reached at least 15 outs in 26 of 29 2026 starts (89.7%).
    • His last 10 starts all cleared 15 outs; average workload was roughly 18.6 outs.
    • Gray is a confirmed posted starter with 169.0 innings and 29 starts; Yankees lineup is posted.
    • Yankees' .3253 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching can raise pitch count and force an early exit.
  14. Max Fried no 6+ strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fried's last eight starts averaged 5.38 IP and 5.38 K, while the venue charges 0.55 for the no side.
    • Fried reached 6+ K in 9 of 20 season starts; the empirical tail is materially higher than the model estimate.
  15. New York Yankees run line −1.5
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sonny Gray's 2026 xERA is 3.87 versus a 2.72 ERA; xFIP is 3.68, indicating regression risk.
    • Confirmed Yankees lineup clears the platoon gate versus RHP: .3253 xwOBA and .4186 SLG; starters were posted at 4:20 PM PDT.
    • Cashing likelihood: medium, driven by Gray's TTO contact deterioration and the Yankees' platoon quality; price quality is a separate lean at this projection.
    • Gray's 2.72 ERA over 169 innings remains excellent; aggregate TTO splits may not fully predict this start's pitch mix.
  16. New York Yankees −5.5Long shotHigh conviction
    +900%Won

    Taken at +900 on FanDuel

    Iron HorseDown 20% over 65 picks
    Why it likes it
    • New York blasted Boston 9-0 in the immediately preceding meeting.
    • Yankees enter 93-68, versus Boston at 87-75; the season-long gap favors the Bronx.
    • Max Fried is confirmed: 2.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 2.73 ERA over his last five starts.
    • This requires New York to win by six or more, an extreme margin threshold.

Questions

Who won Red Sox vs. Yankees?

The Yankees won 9-2 on Wednesday, Sep 30, 2026.

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