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FinalPetco Park
Cubs89-73
1-4
Padres91-71
Score by period
Team123456789T
CHC0001000001
SD02020000-4

Top model pick, graded

Won

San Diego Padres F5 winner (first 5 innings) 48¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: Independent F5 projection: Padres 52%, Cubs 32%, draw 16%; three-way probabilities sum to 100%.

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 16-16 on this game · −7% return

  1. San Diego Padres to win4 models agreeHigh conviction
    +69%Won

    Taken at −144 on FanDuel

    4 modelsRotation Watch, Pen Check +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Rotation Watch
    • Pivetta: 2.86 ERA, .2765 xwOBA allowed, 10.9 K/9; last five starts 1.25 ERA and 0.79 WHIP.
    • Gausman: 4.51 ERA and .309 xwOBA allowed; his last-five line is 5.27 ERA and 1.32 WHIP despite 11.52 K/9.
    • Chicago's .3232 xwOBA versus right-handers is the better of the two same-handed offensive marks and can punish Gausman regression.
    Pen Check
    • Model: Padres 62% fair (about −163) versus FanDuel −144, roughly a 3-point price edge.
    • Nick Pivetta: 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 10.9 K/9; last five starts show a 1.25 ERA and 0.78 WHIP.
    • Chicago's lineup is slightly stronger versus right-handed pitching: .3232 xwOBA and .4205 SLG versus San Diego's .3197 and .3948.
    Selective Pressure
    • Our read: Padres about 60% to win; ProphetX offers the side at 57.26¢.
    • Nick Pivetta: 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 10.9 K/9; Kevin Gausman: 4.51 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
    • Chicago's lineup owns a .3232 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching, nearly matching San Diego's .3197.
    Deep Book
    • MLB corroboration: Pinnacle lists Padres −137; the current Padres −1 board side also carries the larger offer.
    • Probables and lineups confirmed: Pivetta 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP; Gausman 4.51 ERA, 1.27 WHIP.
    • Pivetta has only 34.7 innings and eight starts; his short postseason sample is unstable.
  2. Kevin Gausman over 4.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +116 on FanDuel

    2 modelsMLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL, Señor Strikeouts
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • Projected 5.8 Ks from 23.4 expected batters faced and a regressed 24.8% strikeout probability.
    • Projected clear probability is approximately 67%; the 1.3-K gap clears the 0.75-K requirement.
    • San Diego's confirmed lineup has a relatively low 20.8% K rate versus right-handed pitching.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • 11.15 K/9 over his last 3 starts and 11.52 over his last 5; he recorded 7, 6, and 6 Ks.
    • Gausman averaged 98.8 pitches and 5.47 innings over his last five, with seven days' rest.
    • The umpire-pitcher fit is mildly negative: −2.89 standardized fit for Gausman.
  3. Total runs under 72 models agree
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, House Rules
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Model under probability 52% versus Pinnacle devigged 48.5%; gap is +3.5 percentage points.
    • Confirmed Nick Pivetta posted 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and .2765 xwOBA against; Petco has 70°F air and wind in from RF.
    • Cubs own a +147 run differential versus San Diego's +41, the strongest over-side efficiency counterweight.
    House Rules
      • Exactly 7 is a push, not a win, so that outcome returns stake rather than producing profit.
    • Chicago Cubs to win2 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsDrift, Fade the Arm
      Why 2 models like it
      Drift
      • 2026 efficiency: Cubs +147 run differential, .586 Pythagorean rate, 113.3 wRC+; Padres +41, .527, 100.9 wRC+.
      • Both starters were posted: Kevin Gausman and Nick Pivetta; Cubs' RHP split xwOBA is .3232 versus San Diego's .3197.
      • Pivetta is confirmed but has only 34.67 2026 innings and no current xERA; his 2.86 ERA can dominate.
      Fade the Arm
      • Edge class: PROJECTION, Gausman's latest 92.82 mph fastball was 1.03 mph below his 93.85 mph season baseline; his last four averaged about 93.43.
      • Times-through-order decay: Gausman's xwOBA allowed rises from .2915 first time through to .3220 second and .3162 fourth.
      • Most likely loss: Nick Pivetta wins the matchup and Chicago cannot convert its platoon edge; Pivetta owns a 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 10.9 K/9.
    • Game total under 7.52 models agree
      +78%Won

      Taken at −128 on FanDuel

      2 modelsRicky Pregame MLB Totals, cash-first mlb under hunter
      Why 2 models like it
      Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
      • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 7.2 projected total runs; fair total line 7.2; Under 7.5 win probability 57.5%; push probability 0% (release 8:32 PM CDT).
      • Nick Pivetta brings a 2.86 ERA and .2765 xwOBA allowed into the 9:00 PM CDT first pitch.
      • Kevin Gausman's 4.51 season ERA and 4.03 xERA create the principal over path against San Diego's strong top half.
      cash-first mlb under hunter
      • 63% modeled cash probability; fair total 6.8 versus FanDuel's 7.5.
      • Nick Pivetta: 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and .2765 expected wOBA allowed.
      • Chicago's bullpen had 74 pitches over three days and its current non-starter group carries a 5.43 average FIP.
    • San Diego Padres F5 winner (first 5 innings)
      +108%Won

      Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

      Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Independent F5 projection: Padres 52%, Cubs 32%, draw 16%; three-way probabilities sum to 100%.
      • Pivetta: .2765 xwOBA allowed, 1.25 ERA and .7846 WHIP over L5; Gausman: .309, 5.27 and 1.32.
      • Pivetta's 4.33 L5 innings/start is below the 4.7 workload threshold; an early exit weakens the F5 edge.
    Show all 25 picks
    1. San Diego Padres win the 9th inningLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 14¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Polymarket US full-game anchor: Padres 57.0c versus Cubs 43.5c; the liquid board makes San Diego the favorite.
      • Polymarket US total anchor: 7.5 runs, with Over 47c and Under 53.5c; the fitted environment is roughly 7.5, 8 runs.
      • The 9th-inning total is only 34c Over 0.5, leaving roughly 66c for a scoreless inning or draw; the 9th draw is priced at 67c.
      • The ninth inning is state-dependent: the bottom half may not be played if San Diego leads, so flat-rate inning fitting can fail.
    2. Nick Pivetta under 5.5 strikeoutsFavorite
      +47%Won

      Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US

      K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pivetta's L3 K/9 is 10.54, down from his 10.90 season mark.
      • His 72.25 average pitches per start is well below the 88-pitch hook threshold.
      • He stayed under 5.5 Ks in 3 of his last 4 starts: 4, 5, and 2 Ks.
      • One of his last four starts reached seven strikeouts; single-game variance is substantial.
    3. Kevin Gausman over 14.5 outs recordedHigh conviction
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +113 on DraftKings

      MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 27% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projected 16.4 outs; model clears 14.5 at 72% after hook and shoulder adjustments.
      • Gausman cleared 14.5 in 26 of 32 2026 starts; his last five produced 17, 17, 12, 21, 15 outs.
      • Confirmed starter with nine Cubs starts under Counsell, seven days’ rest, and no reported pitch or innings limit.
      • Gausman’s left shoulder injury lingered after September 23; official reporting found no limit, but late discomfort could force an early hook.
    4. Total runs over 7.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

      Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • PM US over 7.5 costs 47¢; under is 53.5¢, sum 1.00, OPEN and tradable with both sides quoted.
      • Both offenses clear the .315 xwOBA-vs-RHP screen: Chicago .3232 and San Diego .3197; no platoon penalty applies.
      • Partial coverage: starters are confirmed and lineups are 9/9, but both current pitcher profiles are not marked saber-complete; team samples are ample.
    5. Fernando Tatis Jr. over 0.5 hitsFavoriteHigh conviction
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −310 on FanDuel

      Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 9 of Tatis's last 10 games produced a hit (90%).
      • He is confirmed as San Diego's leadoff starter.
      • FanDuel's −310 price implies roughly 75.6%, below the recent 90% hit rate.
      • A single hitless game loses despite the strong recent run.
    6. San Diego Padres win 8th inningLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 21¢ on Polymarket US

      Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • SD 8th-inning price is 0.21 versus 0.24 in the 6th and 0.23 in the 7th, despite the same three-way inning structure.
      • Aggregate board supports San Diego: full-game moneyline 0.57 and F5 winner 0.48, versus Chicago at 0.38 in the F5 market.
      • Late bullpen regime favors San Diego: 33 pitches and 2 appearances for Padres relievers over three days versus 74 pitches and 4 appearances for Chicago.
      • Bullpen usage is aggregate only; actual availability, leverage assignment, and starter length remain uncertain.
    7. Kevin Gausman over 5.5 strikeoutsLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 28¢ on Kalshi

      K’sUp 9% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Gausman cleared 5.5 Ks in 7 of his last 10 starts, averaging 6.1 Ks; the L5 average is 7.0.
      • Recency-weighted model produces roughly 6.0 expected Ks and 54-58% probability of 6+, well above 28¢.
      • Removing Gausman's 9-K outlier leaves 6 of 9 recent starts at 6+ Ks; the edge survives but is less dominant.
    8. Kevin Gausman 4+ pitching strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

      Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Equivalent sportsbook bests: Fanatics over 3.5 at −180, FanDuel over 4.5 at +116, DraftKings over 5.5 at +244.
      • Split-finger produced a 42.2% whiff rate at 40% usage; TTO1/2/3 K% is 23.5/25.7/23.3, with no material decay.
      • Bacchus shows a 1.74-point negative 2026 right-handed called-strike signal; no umpire boost was applied.
    9. Total runs under 8.5
      +61%Won

      Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket

      Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Kevin Gausman (4.51 ERA, .309 xwOBA allowed) and Nick Pivetta (2.86 ERA, .2765 xwOBA allowed) are confirmed starters.
      • The game loses with 9 or more runs; Gausman's 4.51 ERA and a volatile bullpen path can create an early over.
    10. Chicago Cubs +1 run line
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesUp 1% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Cubs +1 wins on a Cubs victory, pushes on a Padres one-run win, and loses by 2+.
      • Cubs +1 is 54.55¢ (−120) versus Cubs +1.5 at 63.77¢ (−176), only a 9.22-point quote gap.
      • Leaguewide one-run frequency is not a matchup forecast; this game’s margin distribution can differ materially.
    11. Nick Pivetta over 4.5 strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −121 on DraftKings

      +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model estimate 61% to clear 5 Ks versus 54.8% break-even at −121: +6.2 percentage points.
      • Pivetta's matchup K rate is 30%, with an 8.5-point positive clash delta against Chicago.
      • Chicago's confirmed right-handed matchup still carries a 21.5% K rate; Pivetta's season K/9 is 10.9.
      • Pivetta's last four starts lasted 4.0, 5.0, 4.0 and 4.7 innings, so workload is not fully secure.
    12. Kevin Gausman over 4.5 pitching strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +116 on FanDuel

      Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model 57% versus FanDuel +116 implied 46.3%: 10.7-point value margin.
      • Gausman cleared 4.5 Ks in 8 of his last 10 starts, averaging 6.1 strikeouts.
      • He has cleared the line in each of his last five starts: 7, 6, 6, 9, 7 Ks.
      • The 8-of-10 form sample is recent but still only ten starts; regression can erase the apparent edge.
    13. 2-leg parlayLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +250

      Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 1% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • PWP Composite Grade 74/100 (B); qualifying edge clears the 70 fire bar.
      • 2026 season hit rate: 94 hit games in 144 (65.3%); last 10: 8/10; last 5: 4/5.
      • PWP hit-probability blend 72% versus DraftKings −159 implied 61.4%: +10.6 percentage points.
      • Nick Pivetta is a difficult matchup: 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 10.9 K/9 in the current Padres profile.
    14. Kevin Gausman 5+ strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

      Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 32 starts: 5+ Ks in 23 (71.9%); 2026 mean 5.75 Ks and 5.55 IP/start.
      • Working innings distribution: <5 IP 0.29, 5, 5.99 IP 0.36, 6+ IP 0.36; matchup-adjusted P(5+ K) about 0.60, range 0.54, 0.65.
      • Both bullpens are fresh: Chicago 4.0 IP/74 pitches and San Diego 2.0 IP/33 pitches over three days, increasing hook risk.
    15. San Diego Padres first-five to win (first 5 innings)
      +76%Won

      Taken at −132 on FanDuel

      The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Weak Pitcher Fade: Gausman owns a 4.51 season ERA, 4.03 xERA and .309 xwOBA allowed; his last-five ERA is 5.27.
      • Pivetta: 2.86 season ERA, .2765 xwOBA allowed and 1.25 last-five ERA; the confirmed Padres order is intact.
      • Handedness split is close but favors the Padres matchup: Padres .3197 xwOBA vs RHP versus Cubs .3232; Pivetta's quality-contact edge is the differentiator.
      • Cubs' confirmed top order includes Crow-Armstrong (156.5 wRC+), Bregman (127.9) and Suzuki (134.0), giving Gausman meaningful run support potential.
    16. San Diego Padres run line −1
      +113%Won

      Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

      Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Kevin Gausman’s last three average fastballs were 93.25 mph, 0.60 below his 93.85 season baseline; his L3/L5 ERAs are 5.87/5.27 versus 4.51 overall.
      • Gausman’s TTO profile worsens after the first pass: xwOBA allowed rises from .2915 at TTO1 to .3220 at TTO2 and .3162 at TTO4.
      • San Diego’s posted lineup is confirmed, and its RHP split clears the gate at .3197 xwOBA with only a .2125 strikeout rate.
      • Most likely loss: Pivetta keeps the game tight and San Diego wins by exactly one or fails to win, despite the Gausman fade.
    17. First-inning under 0.5 runs
      +85%Won

      Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

      Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Posted top threes are verified: Cubs Crow-Armstrong/Bregman/Busch; Padres Tatis/Harris/Machado.
      • First-inning H+BB proxies: Gausman 45/141 PA; Pivetta 8/31 PA, with Pivetta allowing 0 first-inning HR.
      • Petco runs factor is 92; derived RFI probability is 37% versus Kalshi YES at 47%. Full-game total is not a valid RFI reference.
      • Pivetta’s first-inning sample is only 8 games and 31 PA; mean reversion can erase the edge.
    18. San Diego Padres −1
      +113%Won

      Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

      Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Related ProphetX boards agree: Padres moneyline size is 6.8x Cubs; over 7 total size is 26.4x under. Related-board pulls were 16:31:48 PDT.
      • PROJECTION corroborates flow: Pivetta 2.86 ERA and 10.90 K/9 versus Gausman 4.51 ERA and 9.32 K/9; Padres bullpen used 97 pitches in three days versus Cubs 174.
      • Fresh selected-board pull: 16:32:11 PDT. Price is +115, represented as 46.51¢ in the graded exchange field.
      • Padres winning by exactly one run produces a push; a Cubs win or Padres win by less than one loses.
    19. San Diego Padres F5 to win (first 5 innings)
      +113%Won

      Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

      Five FramesUp 9% over 37 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Aligned starter read: Nick Pivetta versus Kevin Gausman shows xwOBA-against .2765 vs .3090, L5 ERA 1.25 vs 5.27, and L5 WHIP .7846 vs 1.32.
      • F5 tie is held separately at an estimated 15.5%; a tied score after five is a push, not a Padres win.

    Questions

    Who won Cubs vs. Padres?

    The Padres won 4-1 on Wednesday, Sep 30, 2026.

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