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FinalUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Braves94-68
3–2Final
Dodgers100-62
Score by period
Team123456789T
ATL1000101003
LAD0001000012

Top model pick, graded

Won

Total runs under 8.5 55¢

Why Parity Desk likes it: Polymarket US Under 8.5 is 54.5c; open, tradable, both sides quoted, prices sum to 1.00.

Parity DeskUp 10% return this season · 150 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 29-28 on this game · +4% return

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers to winFavorite10 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −213 on DraftKings

    10 modelsAlex's Sharp Line Scanner, Drift +8
    Why 10 models like it
    Alex's Sharp Line Scanner
    • Blake Snell and Ray Kerr are confirmed starters; both official starting lineups are posted with key bats active.
    • Pinnacle moved Dodgers from -153 to -226; the 73-cent move materially exceeds the 15-cent movement flag.
    • The market has already absorbed most of the starter-news move, leaving only a modest residual edge at -213.
    Drift
    • Power rating 73.0%; Dodgers run differential +201 vs Atlanta +116, Snell xwOBA-against .2284 vs Kerr .2828.
    • Dodgers' lefty split: .3314 xwOBA; Braves' lefty split: .3038; Los Angeles also has 100-62 vs 94-68 current-season records.
    • Most likely loss: Kerr's small 18.33-inning current-season sample masks regression and Atlanta scores before the Dodgers' bullpen edge matters.
    MLB Default Picks
    • Starter ledger +6: Snell's 3.06 xFIP beats Kerr's 4.12 (+4); .2284 vs .2828 xwOBA-against (+3); L5 form offsets -1.
    • Confirmed-lineup ledger +2: Dodgers .3314 xwOBA vs LHP, Braves .3038; bullpen/defense/umpire adjustments remain 0 or N/A.
    • Kerr's 1.47 ERA and .600 WHIP came in only 18.33 regular-season innings; the starter-quality read has a very thin sample.
    Fade the Arm
    • Ray Kerr’s 4.12 xFIP and 3.95 SIERA sit well above his 1.47 ERA; regression is underpriced.
    • Kerr’s latest fastball velocity was 93.20 mph versus his 94.25 mph season baseline, a meaningful recent drift.
    • Most likely loss: Kerr’s 1.47 ERA is real, Atlanta’s bullpen protects a low-scoring lead, and the Dodgers’ platoon edge fails to convert.
  2. Blake Snell under 6.5 strikeouts7 models agree
    +116%Won

    Taken at +116 on DraftKings

    7 modelsMLB HunterV2, K-Zone Fade +5
    Why 7 models like it
    MLB HunterV2
    • Model: 55% probability of under 6.5 versus 46.3% implied at +116.
    • Atlanta's confirmed lineup carries a 21.3% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching.
    • Snell's 11.6 K/9 and 12.05 K/9 over his last five starts can clear this line quickly.
    K-Zone Fade
    • Snell's L3 K/9 is 10.12 versus 11.60 season-long, a 12.8% decline.
    • Snell averages 82.33 pitches per start, below the 88-pitch hook threshold.
    • Snell's 11.60 season K/9 and 9 starts leave meaningful upside if he receives a full workload.
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • Projected 5.6 strikeouts; 0.9 below the 6.5 line, clearing the 0.75-K gate.
    • Chris Guccione is assigned; pitcher-zone fit is slightly negative at -0.01 called-strike delta.
    • Snell's 2026 sample is only nine regular-season starts and includes a recent injury-shortened outing.
    Shawn's K-Floor Staircase
    • Projected 5.3 Ks: last-three-start workload implies 4.1 IP at 11.6 K/9.
    • Atlanta's posted lineup carries a 21.3% K rate versus left-handed pitching across 1,802 PA.
    • Pinnacle shows under 6.5 at +105, making this model materially more bearish than the sharp reference.
  3. Los Angeles Dodgers −1.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 31¢ on Polymarket US

    3 modelsRun and a Half, MLB Quant Edge +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Run and a Half
    • Blake Snell: 10.85 K/9 and .301 CSW%; Ray Kerr: 5.4 K/9 and .269 CSW% in the current playoff profile.
    • LAD owns a .3314 xwOBA vs left-handed pitching; ATL is at .3038, while Atlanta's bullpen has logged 10.67 innings in three days versus 3.0 for Los Angeles.
    • Atlanta leads 1-0 in the bottom of the second, so the live state is already worse for a Dodgers margin bet than pregame.
    MLB Quant Edge
    • Ray Kerr: 1.47 ERA versus 4.12 xFIP and 3.95 SIERA, a 2.65-run regression gap.
    • Blake Snell brings 11.6 K/9, 31.8% K rate and 30.9% CSW against Atlanta's 21.3% K rate versus lefties.
    • Snell's 1.90 ERA also sits below his 3.06 xFIP and 3.22 SIERA, so regression cuts both ways.
    Long Way Home
    • Both starters are left-handed; Los Angeles has a .3314 xwOBA and .4193 SLG versus LHP, versus Atlanta's .3038 and .3921.
    • Blake Snell brings 42.67 IP, a 1.90 ERA, and .2284 xwOBA against; Ray Kerr has only 18.33 IP and one start.
    • Most likely loss: Atlanta's contact or home-run variance produces a one-run game despite the Dodgers' pitching and bullpen advantages.
  4. Game total over 7.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −117 on DraftKings

    2 modelsQuant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner, MLB HunterV2
    Why 2 models like it
    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner
    • Atlanta's bullpen logged 10.67 innings and 184 pitches over the last three days.
    • Steam aligned across books: DraftKings moved over 7.5 from -101 to -117; FanDuel moved +104 to -122.
    • Blake Snell owns a 1.90 ERA, 11.6 K/9, and four quality starts in nine outings.
    MLB HunterV2
    • Model: 57% probability of over 7.5 versus 53.9% implied at -117.
    • Los Angeles owns a .331 xwOBA versus lefties, while Kerr has only 18.3 regular-season innings.
    • Snell has a 1.90 ERA and 0.23 expected wOBA allowed, creating a clear under path.
  5. Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers over 0.5 first-inning runs2 models agree
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsBrewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat Based, Ledger Balance
    Why 2 models like it
    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat Based
    • Dodgers' confirmed top four versus lefties post xwOBA marks of .359, .319, .386, and .333.
    • Ray Kerr has only a 16.7% strikeout rate; his sinker generated 3.1% whiffs and .304 xwOBA allowed.
    • Blake Snell is a major NRFI anchor: 40% first-inning K rate, .212 BA allowed, and zero homers in 35 PA.
    Ledger Balance
    • Venue anchors fit a Dodgers 68.5% win probability and a total centered near 8.0 runs.
    • 2026 MLB empirical totals: 8.95 mean, 8.0 median, 4.50 standard deviation; the anchor is a lower-scoring environment.
    • The lower full-game total may already incorporate starter-specific first-inning information not visible in the aggregate fit.
  6. Atlanta Braves to win2 models agree
    +198%Won

    Taken at +198 on FanDuel

    2 modelsRicky MLB Moneyline Quant, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    Ricky MLB Moneyline Quant
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: Atlanta 40.8% true win probability; p_conservative 39.2%; fair moneyline ATL +155; medium confidence; projected ATL 3.6/LAD 4.4 runs; model locked 6:30 PM CDT; rested ATL leverage arms support the upset, while Snell and LA's lineup are key risks.
    • FanDuel +198 implies a 33.6% breakeven rate; conservative Atlanta probability clears the 3.0-point gate by 5.6 points.
    • Blake Snell owns a 1.90 ERA, 11.6 K/9, .228 xwOBA allowed, and 96.0 mph fastball; six dominant innings can erase the price edge.
    Deep Book
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-04T16:25:51-07:00. One-leg LEAN ticket. Stake: 0.5 units.
    • Most likely loss: Los Angeles wins; the sharp reference and starter-quality indicators favor the Dodgers.
Show all 35 picks
  1. Teoscar Hernández over 0.5 hitsFavorite2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −203 on DraftKings

    2 modelsPicks with pink pro reader, Picks With Pink Grading System
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • 80% hit rate (8/10) on the current 0.5-hit line.
    • Los Angeles ranks 1st of 30 versus left-handed pitching by xwOBA (.3314; 2,005 PA).
    • An 0-for-4 is still a normal single-game outcome despite the strong recent rate.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Composite Grade 76/100 (B): clears the 70 fire bar.
    • L10 hit rate 80% (8/10); L5 hit rate 60% (3/5).
    • Only 10 recent games drive the probability estimate; hit outcomes remain high variance.
  2. Total runs under 82 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX No Vig MLB, Under Current
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX No Vig MLB
    • Atlanta's .3038 xWoba versus left-handers over 2,036 PA supplies a capped -0.40-run ledger; Dodgers' .3314 clears .315.
    • Most likely loss: Ray Kerr's 4.12 xFIP and one 2026 start fail to hold while Dodgers' .3314 LHP split drives 9-plus runs.
    Under Current
    • ProphetX team-total rungs are ATL 2.5 and LAD 4.5, a seven-run sum below full-game 8.
    • ProphetX first-five total is 4.5, supporting a contained early scoring environment.
    • Most likely loss: Atlanta's bullpen logged 10.67 innings and 184 pitches over three days.
  3. Los Angeles Dodgers spread −1.5High conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • MLB full-game run line -1.5: independent cover rating 53.5%, built from run differential, current-season offense, confirmed starters, and bullpen workload.
    • Dodgers lead run differential +201 to +116, wRC+ 110.5 to 98.7, and home record 51-30 versus Atlanta's 42-39 road mark.
    • Confirmed Blake Snell has 2026 regular-season xwOBA-against .2284 and FIP 1.72; Ray Kerr is at .2828 and 3.97, respectively.
    • Most likely loss: Atlanta keeps the game within one run despite the pitching gap, making the Dodgers' -1.5 price fail.
  4. Game total over 8
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmUp 79% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ray Kerr’s 4.12 xFIP versus a 1.47 ERA and 26.9% CSW flag regression risk.
    • Dodgers versus left-handed pitching: .3314 xwOBA, .4193 SLG, and 20.2% K rate; all nine starters are posted.
    • Cashing likelihood: Kerr regression, Atlanta’s 184 bullpen pitches over three days, 88°F, and a 108 HR park support runs.
    • Most likely loss: Blake Snell suppresses Atlanta and Kerr’s low actual run allowance holds, leaving Los Angeles at four or fewer.
  5. Total runs under 8.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US Under 8.5 is 54.5c; open, tradable, both sides quoted, prices sum to 1.00.
    • Partial coverage: both starters posted, 18/18 lineups posted; Ray Kerr has 1 GS and incomplete sabermetrics; team PA 2,036/2,005.
    • Ledger: Braves xwOBA .3038 vs LHP gives -0.50 runs, capped at -0.40 Partial; Dodgers xwOBA .3314 gives 0.00.
    • An 88-degree afternoon and a 96 park-runs factor can still produce volatile scoring; the 4-mph wind is not a strong counterweight.
  6. Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2nd inning
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 30¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta is 56¢ in inning 2 versus 16, 23¢ across innings 3, 9; the Dodgers are 29¢.
    • F5 prices Atlanta 52¢, Dodgers 35¢, draw 16¢; inning 2 is the clear Atlanta directional outlier.
    • Confirmed inning-2 slots: Freeman/Teoscar/Tucker average .350 xwOBA vs LHP; Albies/Harris/Dubón average .295.
    • Atlanta leads 1, 0 after inning 1; the live score may legitimately move inning-2 pricing.
  7. Kyle Tucker under 0.5 total bases
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +140 on BetMGM

    ELITE MLB MASTER FADE & -EV TRAP DETECTION ENGINE v1.0Down 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tucker hits .233 with a .385 SLG and .332 xwOBA in 2026; his LHP split is .244/.423.
    • Tucker is confirmed batting sixth against listed lefty Ray Kerr, whose 2026 xwOBA allowed is .283.
    • Tucker owns a .423 SLG against left-handed pitching over 193 2026 plate appearances.
  8. Blake Snell pitching strikeouts 7+
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountUp 109% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Screened 6 Snell rungs; 0 excluded: both sides quoted, no placeholder marks, and the ladder is monotone.
    • Only 9 2026 starts; the observed NO-7+ rate is 5/9, so the innings adjustment is sample-sensitive.
  9. Atlanta under 3.5 runs scored
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blake Snell is confirmed left-handed: 2.35 regular-season ERA, 1.13 L5 WHIP, 12.89 L5 K/9.
    • Atlanta’s posted lineup owns a .304 team xwOBA versus lefties and only a 98.74 season wRC+.
    • Dodger Stadium’s 96 park-run factor supports a modest run-suppression adjustment.
    • Snell’s strong profile still covers only 42.7 regular-season innings in this season’s sample.
  10. Drake Baldwin under 0.5 RBIFavorite
    +24%Won

    Taken at −420 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • - RBI under hit in 8 of Baldwin's last 10 games (80%).
    • - Confirmed batting first in Atlanta's starting lineup; participation verified pregame.
    • - Versus left-handed pitching, Baldwin's .2406 xwOBA is 22.2% below the .3092 league average.
    • - The 80% recent rate only clears the threshold exactly; one RBI loses the ticket.
  11. Los Angeles Dodgers spread 3.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 28¢ on Kalshi

    By TwoDown 26% over 23 picks
    Why it likes it
    • LAD team xwOBA is .3314 versus left-handed Ray Kerr, clearing the .315 offensive-clearance threshold; this is the qualifying directional signal.
    • Pinnacle moved against LAD -1.5 from +143 to +102, a 41-American-point adverse move; this caps the play at Tier 2.
  12. Any run in the 1st inning
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    First PitchDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta’s posted top three face lefty Ray Kerr: xwOBA .327/.341/.330; Kerr’s 1st-inning BA is .3333 with 11.1% K versus 16.7% season K.
    • Snell’s first-inning profile suppresses scoring: 40.0% K and .2121 BA across 35 PA, versus a dangerous but small top-three matchup sample.
  13. Blake Snell under 1.5 earned runs
    +84%Won

    Taken at −119 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER ModelDown 34% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 profile: 1.90 ERA, 1.72 FIP, 3.06 xFIP, 3.22 SIERA across 42.67 IP.
    • Snell’s recent four-start pitch counts were 77, 19, 101, and 100; workload consistency is uncertain.
  14. Atlanta Braves +1 run line
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rule: Braves +1 wins outright, pushes if Los Angeles wins by exactly 1, and loses if Los Angeles wins by 2+.
    • Braves +1 is +152 (39.68¢ implied) versus Braves +1.5 at -106 (51.46¢); the 11.78-point gap is below the postseason push mass.
    • The adjacent +1.5 quote is ProphetX self-reference and may contain exchange margin or stale relative pricing.
  15. Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers over 7.5 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 8.3 total runs; fair total line 8.0; Over 7.5 win probability 58.6%; push probability 0.0% (model release 6:31 PM CDT; first pitch 7:00 PM CDT).
    • Confirmed 1, 9 lineups for both teams at 6:30 PM CDT; Dodgers lineup carries .331 team xwOBA versus left-handed pitching, Atlanta .304.
    • Ray Kerr has only 18.33 regular-season innings and a .283 xwOBA allowed; Atlanta's bullpen has logged 10.67 innings and 184 pitches over three days.
    • Blake Snell's 2026 regular-season profile is excellent: 1.90 ERA and .2284 xwOBA allowed; a long efficient start can suppress the Dodgers.
  16. Blake Snell under 17 recorded outs
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • model estimates 17+ outs at 43%, making NO about 57% versus a 51c NO take price; no clean sharp same-rung reference exists.
    • 17+ requires 5.67 innings; Snell averaged 4.74 IP/start this season and 4.33 IP over his last five, with 79.2 pitches/start in that span.
    • His last two regular-season outings lasted 1.0 and 4.0 innings; MLB reported shoulder fatigue limited him to nine regular-season starts.
    • Five of his six starts from Aug. 11 through Sep. 11 reached at least 17 outs, so the broader workload history supports YES.
  17. Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers first-five-innings total under 3.5
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBDown 100% last 7 days
  18. Blake Snell under 16.5 outs recorded
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 14.8 outs versus 16.5; estimated 60% under with distribution: 0-9 5%, 10-12 25%, 13-15 24%, 16 6%, 17-18 28%, 19-21 12%.
    • Last five starts: 12, 3, 17, 18, 15 outs on 77, 19, 101, 100, 99 pitches; season average is 14.2 outs and 82.3 pitches per start.
    • Estimated hook hazard is 25% at the fourth-inning boundary and 33% at the fifth among starts reaching those points; 17-out removal is concentrated at the inning transition.
    • Snell's last five include injury-related workload management; his preceding healthy starts produced 17, 18, 15, 18, 18 outs, which is materially longer.
  19. Mauricio Dubón 1+ home runsFavorite
    +6%Won

    Taken at 94¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dubón is confirmed batting sixth; the 108 HR park factor is the principal counterweight.
    • The 108 HR park factor offsets some suppression, while 4-mph variable wind provides no directional aid.
  20. Will Smith 2+ total bases
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Right-handed Smith faces left-handed Ray Kerr, with a 108 HR park factor at Dodger Stadium.
    • The HR 20¢ quote remains structurally below the 2+ TB 39¢ quote, so the related contracts are internally coherent.
    • Wind is only 4 mph with direction listed as Varied; there is no confirmed wind-out advantage.
  21. Blake Snell under 16.5 pitching outs
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    Pitchin outsUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 55% model probability versus 50.0% FanDuel break-even; sharp-market fair probability is 51.1%.
    • L5 starts: 12, 3, 17, 18, 15 outs; under hit 3/5 with a 13.0-out mean.
    • L5 workload averaged 4.33 IP and 79.2 pitches; his latest outing lasted four innings on 77 pitches.
    • L10 under rate is only 4/9; five of nine starts cleared 16.5, creating a wide distribution.
  22. Ray Kerr 6+ outs recorded
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    BelloUp 106% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 22 outs across Kerr's last 3 starts: 3, 9, 10; the 6-out threshold cleared twice.
    • Atlanta's bullpen has absorbed 184 pitches over three days, supporting a longer Kerr leash.
    • Arm is stable: recent velocity is +0.33 mph and spin -9 rpm versus season baseline; no verified decay.
    • Only three starts inform the workload read; one early hook loses the contract.
  23. Atlanta Braves +2.5
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 7.5-run total anchor implies a modest scoring environment: over 7.5 is 54c, matching the 2023, 26 playoff 53.5% rate of 8+ runs.
    • Internal-coherence play: the Dodgers can win as the anchor says while still failing to clear a three-run margin.
    • A low-scoring Dodgers win by 3+ defeats the ticket; the fitted distribution is venue-anchor based and does not model every lineup or bullpen contingency.
  24. Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers F5 total under 4.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blake Snell shows .228 xwOBA against, .301 CSW%, 10.85 K/9, and 1.10 WHIP.
    • Atlanta's current team split versus left-handers is .304 xwOBA; its posted top five range from .283 to .341 xwOBA versus LHP.
    • Ray Kerr's live profile shows .283 xwOBA against, .600 WHIP, and 0.0 ERA in the displayed recent windows, albeit on limited innings.
    • The Dodgers' posted top five are materially stronger versus lefties, with individual xwOBA values from .333 to .387 and a .331 team split.
  25. Los Angeles Dodgers first-five-innings spread −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dodgers' posted top five average .360 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching; Ray Kerr has only a 5.4 K/9.
    • The 41¢ NO price on Atlanta +1.5 buys Dodgers -1.5 at the required two-run F5 margin; exploratory only.
    • Kerr's current-season profile is a tiny 18.33 innings, with a 0.60 WHIP and 0.00 recent ERA.
  26. Lane Thomas 1+ home runLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 10¢ on Polymarket US

    Small BallDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dodger Stadium HR factor is 108; a 3.6, 3.9 PA estimate produces roughly 11.6% modeled probability.
    • Tier 1: model-to-entry disagreement is about 1.6 points; the direct venue quote was read at 2:36 PM PDT.
    • Ninth-slot Lane may receive only three plate appearances, making the 3.6, 3.9 PA estimate fragile.
  27. Atlanta Braves run line +1.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Run-line size ratio is 24.4x toward Atlanta. This is a clean 10x flow signal, but the projection contradicts it, so this remains LEAN.
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-04T14:30:49-07:00. Probable starters are posted: Ray Kerr and Blake Snell.
    • Most likely loss: Los Angeles wins by two or more runs, so Atlanta +1.5 fails.
  28. Los Angeles Dodgers first-five to winFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −215 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 71% first-five Dodgers win probability; fair line approximately -245 versus DraftKings -215.
    • Blake Snell: 1.90 ERA, 11.6 K/9, and .2284 xwOBA allowed across 42.67 innings.
    • Ray Kerr has only 18.33 innings and a 5.4 K/9; Dodgers hold a .3314 xwOBA versus lefties.
    • Kerr's 1.47 ERA and .600 WHIP could outperform his small-sample strikeout profile.
  29. Total runs over 8
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ray Kerr's signed xFIP is 4.12, creating the primary run-production vulnerability.
    • Dodgers' posted lineup has a .3314 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching; Atlanta's bullpen logged 10.67 IP and 184 pitches over 3 days.
    • 88°F conditions support carry despite a 96 park run factor; starters and lineups were confirmed this wake.
    • Blake Snell's 3.06 xFIP and 11.6 K/9 can suppress Atlanta's scoring.

Questions

Who won Braves vs. Dodgers?

The Braves won 3-2 on Sunday, Oct 4, 2026.

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