Phillies vs. Braves: Final Score & Model Picks

Updated Nov 3, 10:44 PM PST

FinalTruist Park

Phillies88-74

4-3

Braves94-68

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	T
PHI	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	4
ATL	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3

Top model pick, graded

Won

8th-inning total over 0.5 runs 42¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: Full-game Polymarket US anchors: Phillies 51.5¢, and Over 7.5 runs 45¢ / Under 55.5¢.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 18-7 on this game · +30% return

Philadelphia Phillies to win3 models agreeHigh conviction
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
3 modelsParity Desk, Selective Pressure +1
Why 3 models like it
Parity Desk
- Atlanta's .304 versus left-handers triggers a coarse −0.50-run platoon adjustment, not a lineup-weighted projection.
Selective Pressure
- Cristopher Sánchez: 2.96 ERA, 10.04 K/9, .285 xwOBA allowed; Tyler Mahle: 3.99 ERA, 8.28 K/9, .306 xwOBA.
- Philadelphia's .318 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching exceeds Atlanta's .304 versus left-handed pitching.
- Mahle's last-five ERA is 2.35 versus Sánchez's 5.12, a meaningful recent-form warning.
Fade the Arm
- Mahle's recent K/9 is 6.50 (L3) versus 8.28 season; TTO3 xwOBA is .336 versus .320 TTO1.
- Philadelphia's posted nine-man lineup is active; versus RHP it owns .318 xwOBA and a 20.3% K rate, clearing the platoon gate.
- Most likely loss: Mahle's 3.85 xFIP and 92.38-mph latest fastball suggest his underlying form may be better than the recent K-rate dip.
Atlanta Braves F5 winner (first 5 innings)
−100%Lost
Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US
Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Mahle's L5 signal: 2.35 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 30.67 IP over five starts (6.13/start); Sánchez: 5.12 ERA, 1.26 WHIP.
- Independent F5 model: Atlanta 42%, Philadelphia 41%, draw 17%; the starter-quality edge points to Atlanta.
- Sánchez's season profile is stronger: 2.96 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .285 xwOBA allowed versus Mahle's .306.
8th-inning total over 0.5 runs
+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US
Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Full-game Polymarket US anchors: Phillies 51.5¢, and Over 7.5 runs 45¢ / Under 55.5¢.
- The 7.5-run anchor implies roughly 0.55, 0.57 probability of at least one run in a flat per-inning calibration.
- 2024, 26 MLB totals show averages of 8.94, 9.10, and 9.19 runs, with medians of 8, 9, and 9; the low anchor is still incompatible with a 42¢ ordinary inning.
- Flat-rate allocation cannot fully model inning-specific bullpen usage or game-state effects.
Ozzie Albies total bases 3+Long shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 19¢ on Polymarket US
Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Polymarket US anchors imply a live 53% Phillies win chance and a roughly 7.5-run game.
- Sharp reference agrees: Phillies were about 52% and the live total centered near 7.
- Internal-coherence edge is large, but this is an exploratory thin-rung price.
- Three total bases is a high-variance player outcome requiring multiple hits or extra-base damage.
2nd-inning draw
+59%Won
Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US
Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Full-game anchors imply a low-scoring environment: Phillies 52¢ and 7.5-run over 45¢.
- 2026 MLB inning-2 data: 57.1% scoreless, 59.8% tied, including 2.7% positive ties.
- The separately quoted inning-2 over 0.5 costs 34¢, implying roughly 66¢ for scoreless; a draw must include that mass plus positive ties.
- Only about a 3-cent gross gap before exchange friction; variance dominates this thin market.
Tyler Mahle under 4.5 strikeouts
−100%Lost
Taken at −150 on FanDuel
K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Mahle's last-three-start K/9 is 6.50 versus 8.28 for the season.
- Mahle's 88.96 pitches per start still permits a normal six-inning outing.

Show all 26 picks

Tyler Mahle over 14.5 outs recorded
+79%Won
Taken at −127 on DraftKings
MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 27% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- 27 starts: 23 cleared 14.5 outs (85.2%); his last five averaged 18.4 outs and all cleared.
- Model projects 17.2 outs, 94 pitches, 24.0 batters faced, and an 82% clearing probability.
- Modeled distribution: 12, 14 outs 18%, 15, 17 37%, 18, 20 33%, 21+ 12%.
- Atlanta's bullpen used only 35 pitches over three days, with zero relievers on back-to-back days; a short hook remains live.
Ha-Seong Kim hits NO 0.5
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Posted ninth; projected 3.6 PA, materially below the 4.3 PA top-five baseline.
- The 68-PA vs-L split is small and can regress sharply toward Kim's broader .119 season average.
Ha-Seong Kim under 0.5 RBIFavoriteHigh conviction
+17%Won
Taken at −579 on DraftKings
Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- −579 at DraftKings clears the required −300 to −1000 prop-price gate.
- Kim recorded zero RBI in all 10 of his last 10 games.
- His .181 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching is 41.4% below the .309 league split average.
- RBI results depend on runners reaching base; ninth-place lineup position limits opportunities.
Tyler Mahle over 2.5 strikeoutsFavorite
+20%Won
Taken at 83¢ on Kalshi
High LimboUp 27% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Last 10 K: 4, 6, 3, 3, 9, 4, 3, 7, 9, 9; median 5, minimum 3, trailing max 9, season max 9.
- Physical check passed: latest four-seam 93.05 mph vs 92.84 season, spin 2,294 vs 2,302 rpm; no hard decline.
- Phillies vs R: 20.3% K rate and 23.1% whiff; Atlanta bullpen only 65 pitches in three days, so no acute hook inflation.
- 88.96 pitches per start is adequate but not a guaranteed full leash; an early hook loses at 0-2 Ks.
9th inning winner drawFavorite
+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US
Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- i9 winner prices imply 33.7% non-draw after normalization; i9 over-0.5 implies 27.7% scoring.
- The approximately 6-point gap is the slate's largest; innings 1-8 winner non-draw versus over-0.5 gaps are roughly −4 to +3 points.
- F5 winner prices (PHI 0.48 / ATL 0.36 / draw 0.19) and full-game ML (PHI 0.52 / ATL 0.49) provide no ninth-inning directional side.
- Individual ninth-inning reliever assignments are not posted; aggregate workload shows availability, not leverage quality.
Game total over 7.5 runs
−100%Lost
Taken at +112 on FanDuel
Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 7.7 projected total runs, fair total line 7.5, 52.4% win probability, 0% push probability; inputs locked 12:30 PM CDT.
- Philadelphia lineup posts a .318 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; Mahle allows .306 xwOBA with a 3.95 xERA.
- Atlanta's bullpen has logged 82 pitches over the last 3 days, while the game environment is 84°F with an open roof and a 1.02 park-runs factor.
- Cristopher Sánchez is the strongest run-suppression input: 3.39 xERA, .285 xwOBA allowed, and 10.04 K/9.
Cristopher Sánchez 7+ pitching strikeouts
−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi
BelloUp 7% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- 21 strikeouts across Sánchez's last three starts: 7.0 per start and 9.63 K/9.
- 15.05 pitches per inning over those starts; 6.56 innings per start clears the 5.0-IP workload gate.
- Recent three-start velocity is +0.95 mph and spin +16.7 rpm versus season baseline: no verified physical decay.
- Recent outcomes are volatile: Sánchez had 10, 6, and 5 strikeouts in his last three starts.
Game total over 7.5
+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US
cash-first mlb under hunterUp 8% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Independent projection: 7.0 fair runs and approximately 60% cash probability on Under 7.5.
- Cristopher Sánchez owns a 3.39 xERA and .285 xwOBA allowed; Tyler Mahle is at 3.95 xERA and .306 xwOBA allowed.
- Confirmed lineups show recent matchup xwOBA of .303 for Philadelphia vs right-handed pitching and .243 for Atlanta vs left-handed pitching.
- Sánchez's recent five-start ERA is 5.12, including 5 earned runs in his latest 6-inning appearance.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves over 7.0 total runs
0%Push
Taken at −116 on DraftKings
Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 12% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Confirmed starters clear workload gate: Mahle averaged 95 pitches and Sánchez 94.25 over their last four starts.
- Truist Park is 102 runs / 106 home runs overall, with 112 left-handed HR factor; confirmed lineups include Schwarber, Harper, Olson and Acuña.
- 84°F conditions add run environment, while calm 3-mph wind avoids relying on the fly-ball wind-out trigger.
- Sánchez is a 57.7% ground-ball pitcher, and Mahle is 44%; the warm air may not convert into extra homers.
Philadelphia Phillies first-five −1.5 (first 5 innings)
−100%Lost
Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket
Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
Game first-inning total runs over 0.5
+106%Won
Taken at +106 on FanDuel
Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Confirmed top-four xwOBA versus the starter hand: PHI .277/.353/.421/.323; ATL .343/.335/.276/.333.
- Truist Park is 102 runs/106 HR, with an open roof, 84°F and only 3-mph calm wind; Mahle allowed a .292 first-inning BA and six first-inning HR in 27 starts.
- Independence is an approximation; first-inning scoring is a high-variance, low-event outcome.
Game total under 7 runs
0%Push
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
House RulesUp 1% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Under 7 wins on 0, 6 runs, pushes exactly 7, and loses on 8+; under 7.5 has no push.
- The 2.6% calculation uses ProphetX's own under-7.5 rung as the reference, not an independent projection or sharp fair line.
Game total under 7.5
+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US
Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- My estimate is approximately 57% for 7 or fewer runs; the US quote costs 55.5¢.
- Cristopher Sánchez carries a 3.39 xERA and Tyler Mahle a 3.95 xERA; both starters are confirmed and off the IL.
- Mahle's last-five ERA is 2.35, while both bullpens have modest three-day workloads: 3.0 PHI innings and 2.67 ATL innings.
- Philadelphia's starter has a 5.12 last-five ERA, so recent form can overwhelm the season indicators.
Tyler Mahle over 4.5 strikeouts
+119%Won
Taken at +119 on DraftKings
+EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Estimated over probability 53%; DraftKings +119 implies 45.7%, a +7.3-point edge.
- Mahle averages 5.52 innings and 88.96 pitches per start, providing established workload for the over.
- Confirmed Mahle start and active Phillies lineup satisfy the participant and workload gates.
- Mahle has only 5 strikeouts in 5 of his last 10 starts, so recent hit rate is below the model estimate.
Ha-Seong Kim under 0.5 hits
+83%Won
Taken at −120 on DraftKings
+EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Estimated under probability 63%; DraftKings −120 implies 54.5%, a +8.5-point edge.
- Kim has 15 hits in 126 at-bats (.119 average), .219 xwOBA, and .108 average over his last 14.
- Confirmed active ninth-place lineup spot limits expected plate appearances; official lineup confirms participation.
- Only 143 current-season plate appearances; the extreme .119 average may regress toward his true talent.
Bryson Stott over 0.5 hitsFavorite
+53%Won
Taken at −190 on DraftKings
Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Model: 76% hit probability versus DraftKings’ −190 implied 65.5%, a 10.5-point margin.
- Stott recorded a hit in 8 of his last 10 appearances, clearing the 60% form threshold.
- Philadelphia’s current split versus right-handed pitching carries a .3179 xwOBA and .3999 SLG.
- Official batting-order capture is not posted yet; a late lineup change could reduce plate appearances.
Cristopher Sánchez under 6.5 strikeouts
+77%Won
Taken at −130 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 1% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Sánchez stayed under 6.5 in 7 of 10 starts; the last four were all unders.
- L5: under in 4 of 5, with 8.24 K/9 across 31.67 recent innings.
- Projection: approximately 5.8 strikeouts versus a 6.5 line; DraftKings −130 implies 56.5%.
- Season under rate is only 14 of 33 starts (42%), so the recent trend conflicts with the full-season sample.
Philadelphia Phillies run line −1
0%Push
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Mahle's TTO3 xwOBA is .3361 versus .3199 in TTO1, a visible late-order contact deterioration.
- Mahle's recent K/9 is 7.34 over his last five starts versus 8.28 season-long, reducing margin against Philadelphia's lineup.
- Roster gate is satisfied: all nine Phillies starters were posted at 10:20 AM PDT; ProphetX's −1 offer was live at 10:26 AM PDT.
- Mahle's broader profile is not uniformly weak: 3.85 xFIP, 3.95 xERA, and a 2.35 ERA over his last five starts.
First inning over 0.5 runs
+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi
Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Confirmed 1-3 hitters: Turner/Schwarber/Harper vs RHP xwOBA .277/.353/.310; Acuña/Baldwin/Albies vs LHP .343/.335/.276.
- Mahle's first-inning profile allows a .292 BA and 6 HR in 125 PA; Sánchez allows a .282 BA and 3 HR in 140 PA.
- The two scoreless rates are broad current-season aggregates, not a bespoke plate-appearance simulation; independence may misstate correlation.
Total runs under 5.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 34¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Size ratio is 4.4x. This clears LEAN's 3x threshold but not RECOMMENDED's 10x threshold.
- No model corroboration. Moneyline flow is balanced: Phillies $1,827 versus Braves $1,161.