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FinalAllianz Field · Saint Paul
Houston Dynamo
2–2Final
Minnesota United
Score by period
Team12T
HOUS112
MINN022

Top model pick, graded

Won

Houston Dynamo +1 regular time 71¢

Why Two Goal Cushion likes it: Model: Houston +1 wins 75.0%, pushes 15.9%, loses 9.0%; Dixon-Coles lambdas 0.96/1.41, rho -0.05.

Two Goal CushionUp 3% return this season · 178 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 3-10 on this game · −56% return

  1. Houston Dynamo to win4 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsFair Price Pairs, Team Sheet Pairs +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Fair Price Pairs
    • The 2-way contract's raw away-win probability is the correct fair number; no draw renormalization.
    • Starting XIs are not posted, so late personnel news could move the true probability.
    Team Sheet Pairs
    • confirmed XIs returned 11 starters each; Houston's XI attacking xG is 1.74 versus a 1.58 usual-XI baseline, while Minnesota's is 1.58 versus 2.74.
    • The same Houston 2-way contract was 38.46¢ in the 5:01 PM PDT pre-lineup capture; the 5:04:58 PM PDT board remains 38.46¢, showing no meaningful repricing.
    • Minnesota is 4-2-4 at home while Houston is 2-4-4 away, so venue advantage can overwhelm the XI read.
    Low Tide Line
    • Houston's rolling form is +0.5 points per game over 13; Minnesota is -0.4 over 12.
    • Pinnacle's current three-way reference is +252 on Houston, implying the sharp market still strongly favors Minnesota.
    Deep Book
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-10T14:41:56-07:00. Price band and $300 availability gate pass.
    • Houston must win for a ticket win; a draw pushes this 2-way contract.
  2. Houston Dynamo +1 regular timeFavorite
    +41%Won

    Taken at 71¢ on ProphetX

    Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: Houston +1 wins 75.0%, pushes 15.9%, loses 9.0%; Dixon-Coles lambdas 0.96/1.41, rho -0.05.
    • Pinnacle same-rung Houston +1 -257, versus ProphetX -250; model win probability is about 3 points above the sharp raw implied price.
    • Historical check: Houston lost by 2+ in 3 of its last 20; Minnesota won by 2+ in 2 of its last 20.
    • Houston +1 loses on any Minnesota win by two or more; a finishing or red-card outlier creates that margin quickly.
  3. Houston Dynamo first team to score
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Lambdas are 0.96 Minnesota and 1.41 Houston; Houston owns 59.5% of the modeled first-goal race.
    • Pinnacle posts a 2.8-goal total at +101/-113; Houston over 0.5 goals is 73c, consistent with a 41c first-goal price being low.
    • The model has only 8-10 xG observations per side, so the 54.0% estimate has sampling error.
  4. Minnesota United no win
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Team SheetDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Minnesota XI attack: 1.27 xG versus 2.48 XI norm; 48.9% shortfall.
    • Lambda home: 0.96 before; 0.49 after scaling by the XI-quality ratio.
    • Pinnacle is +113 on Minnesota; latest sharp change was 2:01:40 PM PT, with no post-news move.
    • The lambda adjustment is a one-match projection; the 1.27 current-XI figure and baseline can be noisy.
  5. Total Goals (Regular Time) under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Open PlayUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2.54 opp-adjusted expected goals: Minnesota 1.16 plus Houston 1.38, built from 8 and 10 prior xG matches.
    • Moderate window: Minnesota has 8 xG games and Houston 10; the wider error bar is reflected in medium conviction.
    • Raw xG inputs imply a higher 2.87-goal blend than the preferred opponent-adjusted 2.54 estimate.
  6. Total goals under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opp-adjusted xG projects 2.54 goals: Minnesota home attack 0.95 / Houston away defense 1.37; Houston away attack 1.32 / Minnesota home defense 1.44.
    • A 2.54 expected-goal projection is only 0.34 below the market-implied roughly 2.88, so variance remains material.
Show all 11 picks
  1. Match total under 2.5 goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The latest 10-match venue splits imply 2.4 combined goals per game: Minnesota home 27 total, Houston away 21.
    • Minnesota's latest 10 home matches produced 11 goals for and 16 against; Houston's away split produced 11 for and 10 against.
    • Minnesota's current xG is 1.83 for and 1.76 against per match, creating a path to three goals.
  2. Houston DynamoLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 28¢ on Kalshi

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston's point-in-time last-10 record is 4-3-3 (15 points) versus Minnesota's 1-3-6 (6 points).
    • Minnesota is 0-5-5 at home in the latest 10; Houston is 4-2-4 away.
    • Current rolling xG is better for Minnesota: +0.07 per match versus Houston's -0.46.
  3. Both Teams To Score NO
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • opp-adjusted xGF is Minnesota 0.95 (8 xG matches) and Houston 1.32 (10); paired with opponent xGA 1.55 and 1.59 gives scoring reads of 71% and 77%.
    • Independent scoring reads imply BTTS YES about 55%, so BTTS NO about 45%; this is a near-symmetric case, not a strong weak-attacker versus real-defense setup.
    • The latest 10-match team xG macro is more YES-friendly for Minnesota (1.83 xGF) and shows Houston at 1.12 xGF, so the short-window blend is direction-sensitive.
  4. Houston Dynamo moneyline +162
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston's away xG profile is stronger: opponent-adjusted xG differential -0.04 versus Minnesota's home -0.49; context only, not a placement price.
    • Starting XIs are not posted; late rotation or availability news could overturn the stale projection.
  5. Houston Dynamo spread YES 1.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 11¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon-Coles lambdas are Minnesota 0.96 and Houston 1.41; derived Houston-by-2+ probability is approximately 23%.
    • MLS 2026 sample: exact goal difference 0 occurred 103/405, absolute 1 was 160/405, and absolute 2 was 83/405.
    • Pinnacle posted -0.25, not this -1.5 rung, so it is excluded under the same-rung rule; the band is LEAN, not RECOMMENDED.
    • Thin venue activity: 18.29 lifetime contracts and 18.29 in 24 hours; the 1¢ spread does not guarantee a robust consensus.

Questions

Who won Houston Dynamo vs. Minnesota United?

Minnesota United won 2-2 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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