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FinalChase Stadium · Fort Lauderdale
New York City
0–2Final
Inter Miami
Score by period
Team12T
NYC000
IM202

Top model pick, graded

Won

Total Goals (Regular Time) under 2.5 25¢

Why Open Play likes it: 1-0 at 21'; live Pinnacle under 2.5 -102 devigs to 48.8%, versus ProphetX +310 implying 24.4%.

Open PlayDown 12% this season · 124 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-6 on this game · +38% return

  1. Total goals under 3.52 models agree
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsTwo Nil, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    Two Nil
    • opponent-adjusted xG gives Inter Miami 1.52 (home xGF 1.71, NYC away xGA 1.33) and New York City 1.26 (away xGF 1.23, Miami home xGA 1.30), total 2.78.
    • live Pinnacle posts a 3.2-goal total (-109 Over / -103 Under); that nearby sharp line supports a lower-scoring read but is not the same 3.5 rung.
    • Only nine xG-covered home matches for Miami and ten away matches for NYC; the estimate remains sample-sensitive.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Model expected goals total 2.87; a Poisson read implies approximately 67.6% for under 3.5.
    • Combined opponent-adjusted xG against is 2.63 per match, supporting a lower scoring baseline.
    • The four-match head-to-head sample averages 4.75 total goals with BTTS in 75%.
  2. Total Goals (Regular Time) under 2.5Long shotHigh conviction
    +300%Won

    Taken at 25¢ on ProphetX

    Open PlayUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1-0 at 21'; live Pinnacle under 2.5 -102 devigs to 48.8%, versus ProphetX +310 implying 24.4%.
    • A red card, penalty, or defensive collapse can produce two more goals quickly from the 1-0 state.
  3. Match total goals under 3.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model rates are 1.68 home and 1.18 away; total lambda 2.87 implies about 68% for 0, 3 goals.
    • Opponent-adjusted scoring/conceding rates support the pair: Miami 1.71/1.30, NYCFC 1.23/1.33.
    • The model's own over-2.5 probability is 54.6%, leaving a meaningful modeled probability mass below 3.5.
    • Only nine prior xG matches support the thinner side of the model; estimation error is material.
  4. New York City FC first team to score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi

    First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Lambdas 1.68 home / 1.18 away; hazard-adjusted New York City first-score probability is 38.1%.
    • Goal timing rises late: 12.2% in 0, 15 versus 24.1% in 76, 90 across 1,528 goals; correction raises modeled No Goal to 6.5%.
    • Over 0.5 goals is 97.5%, implying No Goal 2.5%; the exact complement is coherent, not a separate edge.
    • No starting XI is posted; nine New York City players are listed sidelined, and lineup effects can move both lambdas.
  5. Inter Miami first team to score NO
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi

    First Strike WideNew model
    Why it likes it
    • Model: Inter Miami first-goal probability 54.1%; the NO outcome wins 45.9%.
    • Pinnacle total moved from 3.5 to 3.25; current sharp under is -103.
    • FTTS mids sum to 0.99. No Goal is 2.5%, exactly matching 1 minus Kalshi Over 0.5 at 97.5%.
    • Inter Miami still has the higher modeled scoring rate and can score first.
  6. Over 1.5 1H goals scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Half LightDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-match ladder sums to 3.44 expected goals; clipped 1H ladder Poisson fit is 1.60.
    • Split violation is 0.30 expected goals, or 8.7 percentage points of first-half share.
    • The 56-fixture MLS sample may not represent this matchup's tempo; a fast start defeats the NO.
Show all 13 picks
  1. Total Goals (Regular Time) under 3.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Open PlayUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Coherence check passes: four days' rest each, middling recent records, and no bilateral high-press tilt support a measured total.
    • Only 9/10 xG matches: moderate coverage leaves a wide error bar.
  2. Under 2.5 Total Goals
    +223%Won

    Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX

    Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The full venue ladder prices Under 1.5 at 12.82¢, Under 2.5 at 30.77¢, and Under 3.5 at 52.15¢; the 2.5 rung is the model's clearest off-mass step.
    • Weigh only: both sides have 4 rest days and no congestion flag; current confirmed XI lookup at 3:39 PM PDT found no late rotation announcement.
    • The confirmed XI includes Messi, Suárez, Berterame and NYC's Martínez, so attacking quality can push the fitted goal distribution higher.
  3. Inter Miami spread NO 1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model lambdas are Inter Miami 1.68 and New York City 1.18; Miami margin ≥2 is 26.3%, making NO 73.7%.
    • Opp-adjusted inputs: Miami xGF/xGA 1.71/1.30, NYC 1.23/1.33; xG coverage is 9/10 and 10/10 matches.
    • Recent 100 MLS results show 29% draws, 20% home one-goal wins, and 24% home wins by 2+, a lumpy ladder, not smooth decay.
    • Miami by exactly 2+ wins the contract; the model could materially understate a blowout.
  4. New York City to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 16¢ on Kalshi

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model xG is Inter Miami 1.69, New York City 1.18, not consistent with a dominant home-win assumption.
    • Inter Miami has six sidelined players; its confirmed-starter attacking xG is only 2.38.
    • The 16¢ contract price is materially below my 24% win estimate.
    • The model is sharply opposed by Pinnacle, which prices Inter Miami -195 and New York City +461.
  5. Both Teams To Score NO
    +163%Won

    Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: Inter Miami scoring read ≈78% (1.71 opp-adjusted xG for vs NYC 1.33 xG against); NYC ≈72% (1.23 vs Miami 1.30).
    • Symmetric case, not a classic asymmetric BTTS-NO spot: blended Poisson gives BTTS YES ≈56%, NO ≈44%.
    • Both teams' scoring reads exceed 71%, so one goal each is a substantial and direct loss path.
  6. New York City under 3.5 goals
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • combined λ is 2.87 (Inter Miami 1.69, New York City 1.18), below the 3.5-goal rung.
    • Poisson read from those lambdas gives approximately 67.7% under 3.5 versus ProphetX's 52.15¢ implied chance.
    • Pinnacle also posts under 3.5 (-119); context only, not placement.
    • Most likely loss path is 4+ goals; the lambda read assigns roughly 32.3% to that outcome.
  7. New York CityLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 16¢ on Polymarket US

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted xG is 1.23 for NYCFC versus 1.30 allowed by Miami; the matchup is closer than the market implies.
    • Miami’s recent form is 1-1-3, while NYCFC is 1-3-1; the home favorite is priced on reputation more than current results.
    • Fair line is approximately 26¢ before venue fees; the 16¢ contract remains positive after the displayed fee schedule.
    • Pregame data reports only 9/10 starting elevens confirmed; late lineup changes could materially alter the estimate.

Questions

Who won New York City vs. Inter Miami?

Inter Miami won 2-0 on Wednesday, Oct 14, 2026.

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