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FinalToyota Stadium · Frisco
Seattle Sounders
0–1Final
Dallas
Score by period
Team12T
SEAT000
DALL011

Top model pick, graded

Won

Total goals under 3.5 60¢

Why Two Nil likes it: Dixon-Coles under 2.5 is 0.48, close to the 2.73-goal Poisson cross-check; PPDA 13.71/14.49 and field tilt .440/.494 provide no strong hotter-tempo nudge.

Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 4-9 on this game · −26% return

  1. Seattle Sounders spread +1Favorite2 models agree
    0%Push

    Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsTwo Goal Cushion, Fair Price Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Two Goal Cushion
    • Dixon-Coles λ Dallas 1.17, Seattle 1.59, ρ −0.05.
    • Dallas winning by exactly one pushes and returns stake; Dallas winning by 2+ loses.
    • Moderate coverage: only 9 xG-backed matches on the thinner side; model-versus-sharp gap is 5.97 points.
    Fair Price Pairs
    • Coverage is clean: has_xg true; gp_with_xg is 10 for Dallas and 9 for Seattle; coverage_reason is NULL.
    • Most likely loss: Dallas wins by two or more; the Dixon-Coles margin grid puts that tail near 11.3%.
  2. Seattle Sounders to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 29¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsLow Tide Line, Long Haul
    Why 2 models like it
    Low Tide Line
    • Warehouse model makes Seattle the likeliest result at 46.6%: Dallas 27.4%, draw 26.0%.
    • Seattle's xG differential is +0.25 per match versus Dallas at -0.28.
    • Pinnacle's current three-way devigged Seattle probability is only 28.7%, sharply opposing the warehouse projection.
    Long Haul
    • Price-band gate passes: +158 is inside -250 to +300; half stake reflects the off-thesis, low-conviction status.
    • Pinnacle lists Seattle at +236 in the 90-minute three-way market; context only, not placement.
    • Both XIs remain unposted; an away rotation or late attacking absence could erase the model projection.
  3. Total goals under 3.5
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon-Coles under 2.5 is 0.48, close to the 2.73-goal Poisson cross-check; PPDA 13.71/14.49 and field tilt .440/.494 provide no strong hotter-tempo nudge.
    • Four rest days each and moderate pressing could still produce a more open transition match than the secondary tempo read suggests.
  4. Match total goals under 2.5
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

    Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Adjusted attack/defense blend gives Dallas 1.26 and Seattle 1.47 expected goals; total 2.73.
    • The warehouse Dixon-Coles pair is Dallas 1.17 and Seattle 1.59, totaling 2.76; its under-2.5 probability is 47.9%.
    • Kalshi NO on Over 2.5 costs 39¢ against a 47.9% model win chance.
    • The 47.9% model probability is only modestly below a three-goal sharp line and may be miscalibrated.
  5. Seattle Sounders first team to score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Adjusted hazards are Dallas 1.26 and Seattle 1.47; Seattle owns 53.9% of modeled scoring hazard.
    • The adjusted race model gives Seattle 50.4%; a +0.5-point late-hazard correction leaves approximately 50.1%.
    • Starting XIs were not posted at 2:45 PM PDT; lineup news can explain the market disagreement.
  6. Over 1.5 1H goals scoredLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 16¢ on Kalshi

    Half LightDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1H fitted mean 0.74; full-ladder mean 2.55; implied 2H residual mean 1.80.
    • Measured MLS first-half goal share is 42.7%; quoted split is 29.2%.
    • Holding the full mean, reconciliation lifts 1H mean to 1.09.
    • Live state is 0-0 at 25'; elapsed-time conditioning may weaken the historical split comparison.
Show all 14 picks
  1. Total goals over 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    ParallaxDown 60% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX offers over 2.5 at 54.95¢ (-122), a 5.63-point gap versus the sharp reference.
    • Pinnacle moved toward the over from -106 at 5:45 PM to -174 now, widening rather than closing the gap.
    • The match is already live at 0-0 around the 15th minute, not in the planned pre-kickoff window.
  2. Both Teams To Score NO
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection, Dallas scoring read 71.6% and Seattle scoring read 77.0%, using opp-adjusted xG attack/defense blends.
    • Symmetric BTTS case, but the combined independent read is only 55.1% YES / 44.9% NO rather than the market's 65% YES area.
    • Dallas's 1.18 opp-adjusted xG-for and Seattle's 1.36 are blended with opponent defense, so goal dependence and tactical changes can break the independence approximation.
  3. Seattle Sounders moneyline +166
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed XI restores regulars Dejan Joveljić, Cristian Roldán and Nouhou; their current starts support Seattle's 1.73 attacking XI-xG.
    • Most likely loss: the match draws or Dallas wins; ProphetX's 2-way moneyline treats a draw as a loss.
  4. Under 2.5 total goals
    +163%Won

    Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The fitted goal lambdas total 2.76, leaving value on the under despite a near-balanced projection.
    • The last three meetings average only 1.67 total goals, with both teams scoring in one of three.
    • Dallas and Seattle's recent venue-specific goal profiles are not strong enough to justify the market's 62¢ Over price.
    • The model itself slightly favors over 2.5 at 52.2%, so this is price-driven rather than a strong directional total read.
  5. Seattle SoundersLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 29¢ on Kalshi

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seattle's opponent-adjusted xG for is 1.36; Dallas is 1.18, while Dallas allows 1.58 adjusted xG.
    • Confirmed XI ratings favor Seattle 6.97 to 6.86, with nearly identical starter attacking xG.
    • Seattle's strong recent form is 4-0-1, compared with Dallas at 3-1-1 over the warehouse's last five.
    • Dallas is 6-2-2 at home with 18 home-side points; Seattle is only 4-5-1 away.
  6. Seattle Sounders +1Favorite
    0%Push

    Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX

    Long Tail PairsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Eric Quill’s 2026 FC Dallas is built around a full-time 3-5-2/5-at-the-back transitional scheme; Dallas owns only .440 field tilt.
    • The structural matchup favors Seattle’s stronger away attack: Seattle away opponent-adjusted xG differential is +0.02 versus Dallas home -0.41.
    • Most likely loss: Dallas’s transition game breaks Seattle’s shape and produces a two-goal home win.
  7. Seattle Sounders spread over 2.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opp-adjusted inputs are Dallas 1.18 xGF / 1.34 Seattle xGA and Seattle 1.36 xGF / 1.58 Dallas xGA; xG coverage is true with 10 and 9 matches.
    • MLS 2026 distribution: Seattle-style away margins of 3+ occurred in 18 of 394 finals (4.6%); blending that baseline with the model yields my 7% estimate.
    • Seattle has seven recorded changes out, including regular contributors Cristian Roldan, Dejan Joveljic, Nouhou Tolo, and Daniel Musovski; lineup impact is not confirmed here.
  8. Seattle Sounders FCLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 29¢ on Polymarket US

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 45.0% independent win estimate; fair line approximately 55¢ versus Polymarket US's 29¢ Seattle YES contract.
    • Warehouse Dixon-Coles model makes Seattle 46.6% away winners: 1.59 away xG versus Dallas 1.17 home xG.
    • Opponent-adjusted xG favors Seattle 1.36 for versus Dallas 1.18; Seattle's recent L5 margin is +1.6 per match.
    • Dallas is 6-2-2 at home with 20 home points; Seattle is only 4-5-1 away.

Questions

Who won Seattle Sounders vs. Dallas?

Dallas won 1-0 on Wednesday, Oct 14, 2026.

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