FinalTQL Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| CINC | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal Goals (Regular Time) over 4.5 32¢
Why Team Sheet Pairs likes it: Confirmed XIs include Cincinnati goalkeeper Evan Louro, whose club sample is one start, plus Denkey, Barlow, Turgeman and Miller in attack.
Team Sheet PairsEven this season · 351 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-7 on this game · +5% return
- New England Revolution first team to score−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- Constant-hazard race probability: New England scores first 54.8%; conservative late-hazard tilt raises it to 55.0%.
- Pinnacle total is Over 3.5 at -110; Kalshi Over 0.5 is 97.5%, implying No Goal 2.5%, matching the model's 2.5%.
- Starting XIs were not posted at 1:43 PM; late lineup news can change scoring rates.
- Game total under 4.5−100%Lost
Taken at 70¢ on Novig
Total SpineDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Cincinnati home xG 1.77 for / 1.80 against; New England away xG 1.80 for / 1.33 against.
- Poisson pair gives total expected goals 3.35 and 75.3% fair probability of under 4.5.
- Pinnacle’s same-line de-vigged under fair is 67.8%, agreeing with the under direction; gap is 2.2 points.
- Starting XIs are unconfirmed; Cincinnati has four and New England three sidelined players in the current feature feed.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Full ladder YES-tail sum implies 3.56 goals; the measured split implies 1H mean 1.34.
- Poisson fit to the clean 1H ladder gives mean 1.62; its Over 1.5 quote is 49.5% versus 38.7% reconciled.
- The NO contract is 51c; reconciled NO probability is 61.3%.
- The full-match ladder is itself a venue reference, not an independent truth source.
- Total Goals (Regular Time) under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Own fair total is 3.35 goals: (1.77+1.33)/2 plus (1.80+1.80)/2, using 10 xG games each.
- Opp-adjusted feature blend is 3.16; 20/19-game team macro cross-check is 3.27, supporting a lower-than-market goal expectation.
- own under-3.5 probability is 55%; four rest days each and mixed pressing tilt are directionally coherent.
- Only 10 xG matches per side in the primary feature window; MLS variance makes the estimate noisy.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Kalshi's rung probabilities imply roughly 3.65 goals, while Pinnacle's independent 3.5 total is Over -110 / Under -102; both are higher than the xG-derived 3.16 read.
- The Dixon-Coles model implies a materially hotter match than the xG combination, near the market's 3.5-goal neighborhood.
- Total Goals (Regular Time) over 4.5+213%Won
Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed XIs include Cincinnati goalkeeper Evan Louro, whose club sample is one start, plus Denkey, Barlow, Turgeman and Miller in attack.
- ProphetX held 31.75c (+215) at the 3:58:35 PM PT pre-lineup capture and remains 31.75c now: no repricing.
- Current XI attacking-xG quality is 2.04 Cincinnati plus 2.93 New England; market has not reacted to the announced personnel.
- Most likely loss: four or fewer goals; the pregame warehouse expected total is 3.67, so five goals remains a high-variance tail.
Show all 11 picks
- New England to win+213%Won
Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- New England's opponent-adjusted xG edge is substantial: 1.70 for versus Cincinnati's 1.64 against.
- New England's away form is 5-1-4 with a +1 goal difference; Cincinnati's home form is 3-4-3 with -6.
- New England has the stronger recent profile despite Cincinnati's 31-point Elo home advantage.
- New England's starting XI is not posted; Matt Turner and several regulars are listed among departures or absences.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 29¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Cincinnati scoring read ≈78.2% from 1.71 oppadj xGF versus New England's 1.33 xGA.
- New England scoring read ≈82.7% from 1.70 oppadj xGF versus Cincinnati's 1.80 xGA.
- NO still loses if both score; the per-side read implies only about a 35.3% NO chance.
- New England wins by more than 2.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles primary read gives New England a 0.48 win probability; the lambda cross-check puts New England at approximately 13% to win by 3+ goals.
- MLS 2026 empirical distribution: 0-goal margins 107/420 (25.5%), 1-goal absolute margins 165/420 (39.3%), 2-goal margins 84/420 (20.0%), 3+ margins 64/420 (15.2%).
- This is a longshot: any draw, Cincinnati win, or New England win by only 1 or 2 goals loses.
- Total Goals over 3.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-14 1:52:41 PM PDT. Scheduled fixture. One-leg LEAN ticket at half size.
- Most likely loss: regulation time finishes with 0-3 goals.
- New England Revolution+233%Won
Taken at 30¢ on Polymarket US
Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG favors New England: 1.70 for and 1.27 against versus Cincinnati's 1.71 and 1.64.
- New England's recent form is stronger: 5-1-4 in the venue-adjusted sample versus Cincinnati 3-4-3.
- The DraftKings reference also offered New England at +205, consistent with a potentially mispriced away side.
- Starting XIs were not posted at the 3:42 PM PT check, so late lineup changes remain possible.
Questions
Who won New England vs. Cincinnati?
New England won 3-2 on Wednesday, Oct 14, 2026.