FinalAmerica First Field · Sandy
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SJ | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| RSL | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal goals under 3.5 57¢
Why Two Nil likes it: Pinnacle posts 3.25 goals (-105/-107), independently anchoring below Kalshi's 3.5 rung.
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 10-5 on this game · +20% return
- Total goals under 3.5+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsTwo Nil, Long Tail PairsWhy 2 models like it
Two Nil- Pinnacle posts 3.25 goals (-105/-107), independently anchoring below Kalshi's 3.5 rung.
- Opponent-adjusted blend gives RSL 1.32 goals and SJ 1.32, for 2.65 expected total versus approximately 3.35 goals from the Kalshi 0.5, 5.5 ladder.
- Only 10 xG-backed matches per side, below the 12-match top coverage tier; one unusual game state can dominate this sample.
Long Tail Pairs- Pablo Mastroeni and Bruce Arena meet with equal four-day rest; no congestion-driven rotation edge is assumed.
- Scheme read: RSL field tilt .445 and SJ .492; neither projects sustained territorial control, despite directness .780/.865.
- Most likely loss: high directness creates transition goals and the match reaches four, especially 2-2 or 3-1.
- SJ Earthquakes first team to score−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted rates are nearly even: RSL 1.32 versus SJ 1.32 expected goals.
- Model lambdas 1.30 home / 1.28 away give SJ a 49.7% race share.
- Kalshi SJ first-to-score is 41¢; the model gives roughly 46% unconditional first-score probability.
- Lineups and starting goalkeepers remain unconfirmed roughly 12 hours out.
- San Jose Earthquakes first team to score−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted lambdas: Real Salt Lake 1.32, San Jose 1.32; modeled scoring share is 49.9% San Jose.
- Total ladder prices Over 0.5 at 96.5c, implying 3.5% No Goal; calibrated San Jose first-score probability is 48.2%.
- Starting XIs are not posted; six SJ and seven RSL players are listed sidelined without player-level detail.
- Total Goals (Regular Time) under 3.5+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 20-game opponent-adjusted xG blend gives RSL 1.36 and San Jose 1.45 expected goals, 2.81 total.
- The hard xG gate passes: both teams have 10 games with xG in soccer_game_features; raw inputs also produce a 2.78-goal matchup.
- Secondary tilt is only +0.05: both PPDA figures are aggressive (12.40, 12.75), but field tilt is middling (.487, .476); four rest days each are neutral.
- The xG window is only 10 games for the qualification gate, so variance is wider than a 20-plus-game sample.
- SJ Earthquakes under 2.5 Total Goals+186%Won
Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG supports the lower total: Real Salt Lake 1.31 for / 1.44 against; SJ Earthquakes 1.20 for / 1.34 against.
- Most likely loss: an early goal or penalty opens the match and produces 3+ regular-time goals.
- Game total under 2.5 goals+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Live-conditioned projection is roughly 64, 68% under: 0-0 at 21' with warehouse lambdas 1.30 and 1.28.
- ProphetX's over probability fell from 67.7% at 6:37pm to 51.0% at 7:00pm, a substantial move with the under.
- The 21' live clock and 0-0 score can lag; one early goal sharply reduces the margin.
Show all 14 picks
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- blended xG gives Real Salt Lake 73.9% and SJ Earthquakes 75.8% to score; BTTS-NO read is 44.0%.
- Symmetric scoring profile: both sides rate highly to score, so this is a projection against an over-expensive YES price, not an asymmetric-defense case.
- The arithmetic attack/defense blend and independent scoring assumption can miss match correlation, game state, and finishing variance.
- Real Salt Lake spread NO 2.5+19%Won
Taken at 84¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 MLS sample: home margins were 0/1/2/3+ in 107/95/54/46 of 420 matches, supporting lumpy tail mass.
- The 2026 MLS empirical distribution is league-wide, not specifically RSL home favorites; 46/420 home wins were by 3+.
- Match total goals under 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 15¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted rates average to 2.65 goals; the model pair totals 2.58 (1.30 + 1.28).
- Poisson from the model rate pair puts 0-1 goals near 27%; blending the adjusted pair gives about 26%.
- The target rung has 99.63 contracts traded, a 1-cent quote gap, and the whole ladder is monotone.
- The sharp 3.25 line is materially higher than this model's mean and may reflect information the rolling rates miss.
- Under 3.5 total goals+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse model projects 2.58 total expected goals; a Poisson conversion puts Under 3.5 near 74%.
- ProphetX offers Under 3.5 at 55.36¢, implying 55.4% before exchange costs.
- The model's direct Under 2.5 probability is only 52.3%, but the extra half-goal at 3.5 provides substantial protection.
- The 3.5 line loses on four or more goals, and both teams' defenses have allowed more than 1.3 xG per match.
- SJ Earthquakes spread +1+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX
Long Tail PairsDown 22% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- KSL reference: Bruce Arena’s Aug. 29 three-center-back reset began San Jose’s seven-match unbeaten run; long-tail board may lag.
- Scheme supports margin protection: San Jose presses at 11.88 PPDA with .865 directness; RSL is less aggressive at 13.19 PPDA and .780.
- Pinnacle shows RSL -0.75 at +102; reference only, while the actionable ProphetX +1 clears the size and price gates.
- Most likely loss: RSL breaks San Jose’s reset and wins by two or more at home.
- Match total under 3.5 goals+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- combined λ 2.58 (RSL 1.30, SJ 1.28); Poisson under 3.5 is approximately 74.0%.
- ProphetX under 2.5 is +186 and over 3.5 is +126, bracketing the ladder.
- Near-equal lambdas reduce dependence on a one-sided scoring script; the total remains below the 3.5 threshold.
- Most likely loss path is 4+ goals; the Poisson baseline still assigns roughly 26.0%.
- Real Salt Lake spread NO 1.5+37%Won
Taken at 73¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Full xG coverage: RSL 10/10 and SJ 10/10 matches; opp-adjusted inputs are RSL attack 1.31, RSL defense 1.44, SJ attack 1.20, SJ defense 1.34.
- Dixon-Coles lambdas are 1.30 home and 1.28 away; an independent-Poisson cross-check puts RSL winning by 2+ around 16.5%, versus the market's 28% YES price.
- The 420-match MLS distribution is broad league context, not a team-specific or opponent-matched sample.
- Total Goals over 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fresh ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-14T17:45:25-07:00. One-leg LEAN ticket at half size.
- Most likely loss: regulation time finishes with 0-3 goals.
Questions
Who won SJ Earthquakes vs. Real Salt Lake?
Real Salt Lake won 1-1 on Wednesday, Oct 14, 2026.