FinalAudi Field · Washington
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| DC | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal goals over 2.5 65¢
Why Bench Boss likes it: Ten-match averages combine for 2.93 xG, 27.3 shots and 8.7 shots on target per match.
Bench BossUp 2% return this season · 234 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-5 on this game · −40% return
- Total goals over 2.5+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX
Bench BossDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Ten-match averages combine for 2.93 xG, 27.3 shots and 8.7 shots on target per match.
- Most likely loss: New York's press is bypassed and finishing stalls, leaving 0-2 total goals.
- Over 3.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- DC/Poisson P(4+ goals) is approximately 47.3% versus +126 / 44.25¢ implied (2.26 decimal).
- Opponent-adjusted xG: DC United 1.62 for / 1.65 against; New York RB 1.37 / 1.56; the model keeps the total elevated.
- Starting elevens are unpublished at 1:55 PM; a late striker or goalkeeper change could move the goal distribution.
- Total goals under 3.5+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- My Poisson translation of the 3.10 xG mean gives about 62.5% for 0-3 goals versus a 56% contract cost; Pinnacle independently posts a nearby 3.25 total.
- Secondary tempo check: NYRB PPDA 12.26 versus DC 17.08, but both have four rest days; this is only a modest upward nudge, not enough to erase the projection gap.
- Coverage is only 10 xG matches per side, below the desk's 12-match top tier, so the 3.10 estimate is less stable than a full-history read.
- Total Goals (Regular Time) over 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed starters combine for 4.33 attacking XI xG: DC United 2.21 and New York RB 2.12.
- Returning attack is load-bearing: Tai Baribo starts at 0.49 xG/90 and Julian Hall starts at 0.41 xG/90.
- ProphetX already moved from +140 opening to +130, so this is projection rather than an unrepriced TIMING edge.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- DC United scoring read 79.5%; New York RB scoring read 78.0%; product gives BTTS-YES 62.0%, so NO 38.0%.
- Opposition-adjusted xG inputs: DC attack 1.62 vs NYRB defense 1.56; NYRB attack 1.37 vs DC defense 1.65.
- Asymmetric edge is mild: neither attack is weak, but both defenses allow enough; projection is below the YES quote rather than a total-goals argument.
- Kalshi is the only independently confirmed BTTS venue here; self-reference caps this at LEAN, and a 0.33 contract is volatile.
- Total goals over 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Long Tail PairsDown 22% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Michael Bradley’s 2026 Red Bulls are documented as deliberately daring and aggressive; that coaching risk profile is the pace driver.
- Style supports an open game: DC United directness ratio is 0.95; New York RB’s PPDA is 12.26 versus DC’s 17.08.
- Most likely loss: the aggressive plan produces only a 1-1 or 2-1 match, stopping below four goals.
Show all 9 picks
- Match total over 2.5 goals+49%Won
Taken at 67¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX over 1.5 is -650 and over 3.5 is +126, consistent with a high-scoring baseline.
- Price band passes: -205 is within the permitted -250 to +300 range; this is the wake's one off-thesis lean.
- No verified Long Haul decay pillar: both teams have four rest days, grass is confirmed, travel is unrecorded, and no aggregate state applies.
- DC United spread YES over 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 days - DC United −10%Push
Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fresh ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-14T15:53:11-07:00. LEAN one-leg ticket; half-size due to weak independent board confirmation.
- Most likely loss: DC United fails to win by two or more; a one-goal home win is a push rather than a ticket win.
Questions
Who won New York RB vs. DC United?
DC United won 2-1 on Wednesday, Oct 14, 2026.